{"id":78379,"date":"2024-08-15T05:00:07","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T12:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78379"},"modified":"2024-08-14T14:39:28","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T21:39:28","slug":"housing-market-update-housing-payments-pending-sales-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-housing-payments-pending-sales-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"The Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. That Has Led to More Buyer Interest, But Not More Sales."},"content":{"rendered":"

The median U.S. housing payment has dropped to nearly $250 below its springtime peak as mortgage rates decline. While Redfin agents are reporting a modest uptick in touring, pending home sales are down 5% year over year.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The median housing payment for U.S. homebuyers has dropped to its lowest level since February as <\/span>weekly average<\/span><\/a> mortgage rates fall to <\/span>their <\/span><\/i>lowest level in over a year. The typical buyer\u2019s housing payment was $2,588 during the four weeks ending August 11, nearly $250 below April\u2019s all-time high and up just 1% year over year\u2013the smallest increase in five years. There are also a few other encouraging signs for today\u2019s buyers: The total number of homes for sale is up nearly 20% year over year, and an increasing\u00a0 share of inventory is <\/span>growing stale<\/span><\/a>, allowing some buyers the chance to negotiate. Additionally, less than 30% of homes are selling above list price, down from 35% a year ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite declining costs and improving inventory, pending home sales have yet to improve: Pending sales are down 5.1% year over year, the biggest decline since November (except the prior 4-week period, when there was a 6.2% decline). There are several reasons buyers aren\u2019t jumping at the chance to take advantage of falling mortgage rates. Although home prices have come down from their July peak, they\u2019re still near record highs. Additionally, some prospective buyers are sitting on the sidelines because of economic and political uncertainty around the presidential election, whether mortgage rates will fall more and whether the U.S. is going to enter an official recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There are a few signs that more house hunters are starting the homebuying process. <\/span>Mortgage-purchase applications are <\/span>up 3%<\/span><\/a> week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis. And <\/span>Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013a <\/span>\u00a0measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents\u2013is down 10% year over year, but that\u2019s the smallest decline since April.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI was hoping more buyers would emerge when mortgage rates started declining. And while house hunting has picked up a bit, the increase isn\u2019t all that significant,\u201d said Brynn Re<\/a>a, a Redfin Premier agent in Spokane, WA<\/a>. \u201cBudgets are typically the most important factor for buyers, and homes are still really expensive for a lot of people. A lot of buyers are waiting to see if mortgage rates fall more if and when the Fed cuts interest rates, and to see what happens with the economy and the election later in the year.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This week\u2019s\u00a0 CPI report shows that inflation <\/span>continues to soften<\/span><\/a>, reinforcing the <\/span>expectation<\/span><\/a> the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, though it\u2019s\u00a0 unclear by how much. Markets have priced in expectations of aggressive rate cuts. If the Fed doesn\u2019t match those expectations, rates could rise a bit, but if they cut as quickly as markets are hoping\u2013or even faster\u2013mortgage rates have more room to fall. And if falling rates drive up demand, that could push up home prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For more on Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.49% (Aug. 14)<\/span><\/td>\nNear lowest level since spring 2023, but up from low of 6.34% about a week earlier<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.24%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.47% (week ending Aug. 8)<\/span><\/td>\nLowest level in over a year; down from 7.22% in early May<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 6.96%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nIncreased 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Aug. 9)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 8%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nEssentially unchanged\u00a0 from a month earlier (as of week ending Aug. 11)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 10%<\/span><\/td>\nRedfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 10% from the start of the year (as of Aug. 11)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was up 7% from the start of 2023<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 11% from a month earlier (as of Aug. 12)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 3%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending August 11, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending August 11, 2024<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$389,250<\/span><\/td>\n3.4%<\/span><\/td>\nUp slightly from a week earlier, but $6,750 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending July 7<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$398,248<\/span><\/td>\n5.9%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase since Oct. 2022<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,588 at a 6.47% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n0.7%<\/span><\/td>\nLowest level since Feb.; $244 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n82,160<\/span><\/td>\n-5.1%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest decline since Nov. 2023, except the prior 4-week period, when there was a 6.2% decline\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n92,476<\/span><\/td>\n4.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n1,005,700<\/span><\/td>\n18.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n3.6<\/span><\/td>\n+0.7 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n37.1%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 43%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n35<\/span><\/td>\n+6 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n29.6%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 35%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes with a price drop<\/b><\/td>\n7%<\/span><\/td>\n+1.8 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nNear highest level on record\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n99.3%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.5 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending August 11, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/th>\nNotes<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nPhiladelphia (12.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Detroit (12.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (11.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Newark, NJ (10.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (10.1%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Austin, TX (-3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-1.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio, TX (-1.3%)<\/span><\/th>\n

\n

Declined in 3 metros<\/span><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nSan Francisco (20.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cincinnati (10.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, CA (10.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Los Angeles (7.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (6.8%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Houston (-20.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-17.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-15.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Minneapolis (-12.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-12.5%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 9 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nCincinnati (20.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (19%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, CA (18.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Baltimore (17.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Diego (17.1%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Atlanta (-16%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Austin, TX (-5.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Chicago (-3.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (-3.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nassau County, NY (-3.1%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 11 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The median U.S. housing payment has dropped to nearly $250 below its springtime peak as mortgage rates decline. While Redfin agents are reporting a modest uptick in touring, pending home sales are down 5% year over year.\u00a0 The median housing payment for U.S. homebuyers has dropped to its lowest level since February as weekly average […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78393,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[623,655,654],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-national","tag-weekly-market-tracker","tag-weekly-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. That Has Led to More Buyer Interest, But Not More Sales.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The median U.S. housing payment has dropped to nearly $250 below its springtime peak as mortgage rates decline. While Redfin agents are reporting a modest uptick in touring, pending home sales are down 5% year over year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-housing-payments-pending-sales-decline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. 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