{"id":78423,"date":"2024-08-20T15:10:48","date_gmt":"2024-08-20T22:10:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78423"},"modified":"2024-10-03T12:51:43","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T19:51:43","slug":"potential-harris-presidency-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/potential-harris-presidency-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s What a Kamala Harris Presidency Could Mean For the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris unveiled a plan that promises to combat the housing affordability crisis, and boost supply and demand. Harris\u2019s plan is appealing, but will take a careful balancing act to pull it off.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. home-sale prices have risen nearly 40% since President Biden took office, mortgage rates are just now coming down from a two-decade high and rental prices are near record highs. For voters, the difficulty of paying for a place to live is understandably a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/gen-z-housing-affordability-important-vote\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">major issue<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the runup to this year\u2019s presidential election, putting housing policy at the forefront.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kamala Harris\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=IbhXnF2Jo94\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">housing plan<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> promises to battle the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KamalaHarris\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">affordability crisis<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by building millions of new homes and encouraging homebuyer and renter demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Her plan is astoundingly ambitious; its major flaw is that it tries to do too much. And its success depends on all of its various components being implemented in perfect synchrony and harmony, which would require Congress\u2019s complete\u2013and unlikely\u2013cooperation.\u00a0 For instance, if supply increases but demand doesn\u2019t, home values could drop and Americans could lose equity. If demand increases more than supply, home prices and rents will soar higher than they already have.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Below is an overview of Harris\u2019s housing plan, along with some potential consequences.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>Here are four key points of Harris\u2019s housing plan:<\/b><\/span><i><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>Build 3 million new for-sale and rental homes.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is the cornerstone of Harris\u2019s plan. Building millions of new homes is meant to help middle-class Americans become homeowners and help low-income Americans find affordable housing; there are more details on those goals below. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>To build millions of new homes, Harris proposes cutting down on red tape to allow for quicker, cheaper construction of homes. To do this, she proposes:\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Providing $100 million in <\/span><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hud.gov\/program_offices\/comm_planning\/pro_housing\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>HUD PRO housing grants<\/em><\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which support communities nationwide that suffer from a lack of affordable housing by removing barriers to affordable housing, like outdated zoning policies, inefficient procedures and inadequate infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Local governments can decide whether to accept this type of funding. That could mean this policy doesn\u2019t make nearly as much of a difference in supply as the $100-million number suggests.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>\u00a0 Providing more certainty for financing multifamily projects<\/em>, through measures like better loan terms, more predictability and less variability in rates.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This could lead to more apartments and lower rents, which is good for renters because it gives them more to choose from, and could push down rents. For that same reason, existing property owners and landlords, may not like this policy.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Allowing multi-unit buildings under HUD Code for manufactured homes<\/em>.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This could reduce reliance on union labor, which could encourage faster construction and more supply. Many YIMBYs like this policy, too.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expediting local permitting processes.<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This could greatly increase supply by reducing delays and uncertainty in the approval process across all segments of the market. If it does that, it should improve affordability. The problem with a policy like this is that local planning committees may ignore it. That could result in strife between federal and local governments.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Streamlining transit-oriented development projects.<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This policy, which calls for faster approval and financing for housing located near public transit, could lead to more dense, mixed-use development in areas with high demand for housing. That would increase supply where it\u2019s needed most and potentially bring down transportation costs.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>Help middle-class Americans become homeowners. To do this, she proposes:<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Providing $25,000 down payment assistance to first-time homebuyers.<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This could<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">provide a big demand boost. But to avoid an inflationary impact, i.e. pushing home prices up even more, it would need to be paired with a big increase in supply in places that need it.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Removing tax benefits for big investors who buy up a lot of single-family homes.\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is unlikely to apply to mom &amp; pop landlords, who are often the investors who are competing directly with first-time homebuyers because they\u2019re moving up, but keeping their first home as a rental rather than selling it.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reducing federal income taxes builders pay on sales to first-time homebuyers.<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This would encourage builders to construct more homes. It would work in places like the Sun Belt, but it\u2019s less likely to work in expensive coastal cities unless those places go through major zoning changes.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>Help low-income Americans find affordable housing. To do this, she proposes:\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Encouraging use of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC).\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The LIHTC is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.huduser.gov\/portal\/datasets\/lihtc.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">touted by HUD as its most important resource<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for creating affordable housing. The LIHTC works by providing tax credits to builders who construct affordable rental housing, and the Tax Foundation estimates the credits to be worth $37 billion over 10 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This type of tax credit could provide more homes to the people who need them, specifically low-income Americans. But some would rather see this money distributed more broadly, across developers who build homes at all price tiers, which could increase supply even more.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using American Rescue Plan funds for public investment in housing projects.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Encouraging use of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudexchange.info\/programs\/section-108\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Section 108<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Loan Guarantee Program.\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This program is popular with builders, too, because it could lead to more construction.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The obstacles to implementation of Harris\u2019s plan will likely come down to how much money to spend. It will also come down to whether the money should go primarily to low-income housing, which would benefit the most vulnerable renters, or to market-priced new construction, which tends to only be affordable to higher income earners.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What\u2019s promising for Harris: There\u2019s growing bipartisan support for addressing the housing shortage, with Republicans in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/666465-gov-desantis-signs-bill-banning-localities-from-blocking-demolition-replacement-of-old-coastal-buildings\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/buildingsaltlake.com\/salt-lake-city-legalizes-4-plexes-in-all-residential-zones-ending-single-family-zoning\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> zoning for more housing units at the same time as Democrats in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cayimby.org\/legislation\/?_filter_by_status=signed\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.planetizen.com\/news\/2024\/01\/127070-washington-house-passes-lot-splitting-bill\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. There has also historically been strong bipartisan support for credits to first-time homebuyers (every state <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/credit.org\/blogs\/blog-posts\/state-first-time-home-buyer-tax-credit\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">already provides<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> first-time homebuyer credits). If Harris can lead Congress in pulling off her plan, she could make a meaningful dent in the affordability crisis by the end of this decade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note that some of the details above are from Kamala Harris\u2019s August 16 economy policy <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=IbhXnF2Jo94\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">speech<\/span><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and some are from the<\/span><\/i> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2024\/08\/13\/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-new-actions-to-lower-housing-costs-by-cutting-red-tape-to-build-more-housing\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Biden-Harris housing plan<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> recently released by the White House.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/potential-trump-presidency-housing-market\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">our post<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about what a second Trump presidency could mean for the housing market.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris unveiled a plan that promises to combat the housing affordability crisis, and boost supply and demand. Harris\u2019s plan is appealing, but will take a careful balancing act to pull it off. U.S. home-sale prices have risen nearly 40% since President Biden took office, mortgage rates are just now coming down [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13160,"featured_media":78421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[693,632],"tags":[36,623,19],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[119,622],"class_list":["post-78423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-election-2024","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Here\u2019s What a Kamala Harris Presidency Could Mean For the Housing Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris unveiled a plan that promises to combat the housing affordability crisis, and boost supply and demand. Harris\u2019s plan is appealing, but will take a careful balancing act to pull it off.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/potential-harris-presidency-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Here\u2019s What a Kamala Harris Presidency Could Mean For the Housing Market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris unveiled a plan that promises to combat the housing affordability crisis, and boost supply and demand. 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