{"id":78451,"date":"2024-08-23T07:59:32","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T14:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78451"},"modified":"2024-08-23T08:25:26","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T15:25:26","slug":"mortgage-rates-to-fall-after-fed-chair-confirms-september-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-to-fall-after-fed-chair-confirms-september-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates to Fall After Fed Chair Confirms September Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the central bank\u2019s annual gathering on Friday that \u201cthe time has come for policy to adjust,\u201d all but confirming the Fed will cut rates at its next policy meeting on September 18.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Takeaway:<\/b> Rate cuts will likely start on September 18, but the size and pace will depend on incoming economic data, particularly labor market data. Rates will edge down a little today on Powell\u2019s remarks, but markets have now priced in aggressive expectations for how quickly the Fed will cut. If the Fed ends up cutting slower than markets currently anticipate, because the labor market is stronger than feared, rates may rise a bit in the fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

Powell said \u201cthe time has come for policy to adjust,\u201d signaling the start of a cutting cycle at the Fed\u2019s September 18 meeting. <\/b>After repeatedly saying for the majority of the year that he needed to see more evidence that inflation is coming back to target, Powell has now seen enough. In fact, he acknowledged that \u201cthe balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed\u201d and going forward, the mission is doing \u201ceverything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The key to the direction of mortgage rates now is how quickly the Fed will cut and Powell\u2019s guidance today was that \u201cthe timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.\u201d <\/b>Futures<\/span> markets are divided between expectations of a larger than normal 50 bps cut in September, with one-third probability, and a more normal 25 bps cut, with two-thirds probability. The key to where the Fed lands will be the September 6 jobs report. Powell made clear today that \u201cwe do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.\u201d If there is evidence of further cooling in the labor market, the Fed will need to cut aggressively to prevent a recession. Fortunately, because rates are currently so high, the Fed has plenty of ammunition to stimulate the economy if needed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates will edge down today, but market expectations are now pretty optimistic on the pace of cuts. The path for mortgage rates from here depends on whether incoming economic data and the Fed\u2019s actual path match these expectations. <\/b>Additional weak labor market data leading to a series of larger than 25 bps cuts will mean that mortgage rates will fall through the end of the year. But a stable, or even falling, unemployment rate will allow the Fed to cut 25 bps at a time and may lead to mortgage rates ticking up a bit from today\u2019s lows through the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the central bank\u2019s annual gathering on Friday that \u201cthe time has come for policy to adjust,\u201d all but confirming the Fed will cut rates at its next policy meeting on September 18.\u00a0 Takeaway: Rate cuts will likely start on September 18, but the size and pace will depend on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":40249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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