{"id":78457,"date":"2024-08-27T05:00:04","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T12:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78457"},"modified":"2024-08-26T10:48:24","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T17:48:24","slug":"mortgage-rate-lock-in-housing-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rate-lock-in-housing-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"6 of Every 7 People With Mortgages Have an Interest Rate Below 6%, But the Lock-In Effect Is Starting to Ease"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>The mortgage rate lock-in effect is prompting many homeowners to stay put, contributing to America\u2019s housing shortage.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>But the lock-in effect is slowly easing because eventually, people have to move; 86% of homeowners with mortgages have interest rates below 6%, down from 91% in 2023 and a record 93% in 2022.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nationwide, 85.7% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 6%, down from 90.6% at the start of last year and a record high of 92.8% in mid-2022.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That means even <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more than <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">85.7% of homeowners with mortgages have a rate below the current weekly average of<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.46%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, prompting many to stay put instead of selling and buying another home at a higher rate\u2014a phenomenon called the \u201clock-in effect.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78458\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1-1024x745.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"582\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1-1024x745.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1-1536x1117.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1-2048x1489.png 1651w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/locked_in_mortgages_thru_2024_q1.png 1650w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is according to a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency\u2019s National Mortgage Database as of the first quarter of 2024, the most recent period for which data is available.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Here\u2019s the full breakdown of where today\u2019s homeowners fall on the mortgage-rate spectrum:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 85.7% of mortgaged U.S. homeowners have a rate below 6%, down from a record 92.8% in the second quarter of 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 5%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 76.1% have a rate below 5%, down from a record 85.6% in the first quarter of 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 4%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 57.4% have a rate below 4%, down from a record 65.3% in the first quarter of 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 3%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 22% have a rate below 3%, down from a record 24.7% in the first quarter of 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cI have a dozen or so homeowners who would like to sell, but aren\u2019t willing to give up their 3% interest rate for one that\u2019s more than twice as high,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/blakely-minton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blakely Minton<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> real estate agent in Philadelphia. \u201cMany of those sellers will list if rates get back down to 5%.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The lock-in effect is fueling a shortage of homes for sale; new listings were at the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/existing-home-sales-july-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">lowest<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> level in a year last month. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But for most people, it\u2019s not realistic to stay put forever, which is why the share of homeowners with rates below 6% is inching down. Some homeowners are opting to bite the bullet and give up their low rate in order to move. Many are selling because a major life event like a job change or divorce has given them no other choice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another reason the share of locked-in homeowners has dipped: Everyone who purchased a home in the last year was entering the market at a time when the average mortgage rate was above 6%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s worth noting that for some homeowners, the pandemic surge in home values means they have enough equity to justify selling and taking on a higher rate\u2014especially if they\u2019re downsizing or moving somewhere more affordable. It\u2019s also worth noting that while many homeowners remain locked into their low mortgage rates, a rising share of Americans are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-11-17\/amid-high-mortgage-rates-higher-share-of-americans-outright-own-homes?sref=fRZXrT1O\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mortgage-free<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates have declined in recent weeks, causing homebuyer mortgage payments to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-house-hunters-return-monthly-payments-decline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fall<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for the first time since 2020. The current average weekly mortgage rate (6.46%) is the lowest in 15 months, but still significantly higher than the 2.65% record low hit during the pandemic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With inflation on the decline, the Federal Reserve is now <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-to-fall-after-fed-chair-confirms-september-cuts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">expected<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to start cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting on September 18. Bu<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">t the size and pace will depend on incoming economic data, particularly labor market data. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">M<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">arkets have now priced in aggressive expectations for how quickly the Fed will cut. If the Fed ends up cutting slower than markets anticipate, mortgage rates may rise a bit.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Methodology<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of data from the FHFA\u2019s<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhfa.gov\/DataTools\/Downloads\/Pages\/National-Mortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">National Mortgage Database<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is a nationally representative 5% sample of all first-lien, closed-end purchased or refinanced residential mortgages in the U.S. The first quarter of 2024 is the most recent period for which data on outstanding mortgages is available. We assume each loan represents a homeowner with a mortgage, though some homeowners may have multiple loans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the prevailing mortgage rate for homebuyers often changes quickly, rates for existing homeowners don\u2019t typically change significantly from quarter to quarter, as most buyers take out 30-year mortgages. Roughly 60% of U.S. homeowners have an outstanding mortgage.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The mortgage rate lock-in effect is prompting many homeowners to stay put, contributing to America\u2019s housing shortage. But the lock-in effect is slowly easing because eventually, people have to move; 86% of homeowners with mortgages have interest rates below 6%, down from 91% in 2023 and a record 93% in 2022. Nationwide, 85.7% of U.S. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":71934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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