{"id":78558,"date":"2024-09-19T05:00:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T12:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78558"},"modified":"2024-09-18T17:29:29","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T00:29:29","slug":"housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-housing-payments-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-housing-payments-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Payments Post Biggest Decline in 4 Years Ahead of Fed’s Historic Rate Cut, Which Could Lure Buyers Off the Sidelines"},"content":{"rendered":"

Monthly housing payments have declined nearly $300 from April\u2019s all-time high. Improving affordability has yet to push up pending sales, but that could change after the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this week. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The median U.S. housing payment was $2,534 during the four weeks ending September 15, down 2.7% from a year earlier\u2013the biggest decline since May 2020. Monthly payments are falling because <\/span>mortgage rates<\/span><\/a> dropped to their lowest level in 20 months in the <\/span>lead-up<\/span><\/a> to the Fed\u2019s <\/span>first interest-rate cut<\/span><\/a> since 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage applications are rising, but pending sales have yet to improve. <\/b>Mortgage-purchase applications are <\/span>up 5%<\/span><\/a> week over week, with some buyers jumping off the sidelines as mortgage rates\u00a0 fall. But many would-be buyers are still holding off, with pending home sales down 6.9% year over year, one of the biggest declines since October 2023. That\u2019s despite both lower housing payments and more homes to choose from: New listings are up 5.1% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 16.1%.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are several reasons sales haven\u2019t yet picked up. <\/b>Home prices are still rising, and Redfin agents report that some would-be buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to fall more, while other prospective buyers aren\u2019t even aware that rates have <\/span>started <\/span><\/i>to fall. Aside from rate-related reasons, agents report many\u00a0 house hunters are <\/span>confused<\/span><\/a> about the new NAR rules and others are waiting until after the election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBuyers are holding their breath, watching interest rates. There\u2019s pent-up energy, with people waiting for the right moment to buy a home\u2013and it\u2019s feeling like the dam is going to break soon,\u201d said <\/span>Kristin Sanchez<\/span><\/a>, a Redfin <\/span>Premier<\/span><\/a> agent in <\/span>Nashville, TN<\/span><\/a>. \u201cOnce things are more settled and people know where mortgage rates are going to land and who is going to be president, the market is going to get busier. I think winter will be busier than summer, which is the opposite of a usual year.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Inventory is piling up. <\/b>The combination of rising inventory and slow sales is causing for-sale homes to pile up, and many listings are <\/span>growing stale<\/span><\/a>. There are roughly four months of supply available on the market, the most since February and up from just over three months last year. Months of supply is the length of time it would take for the existing supply of homes to be bought up at the current pace of sales; the higher the number, the more buyer friendly the market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s interest-rate cut may bring buyers off the sidelines. Demand may improve after yesterday\u2019s <\/span>interest-rate cut<\/span><\/a>, with house hunters who had been waiting for the Fed to lower rates jumping into the market now that it has happened. <\/span>Redfin economists note<\/span><\/a> that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall much further in the next few weeks because markets had already priced in expectations of an aggressive rate cut, and the Fed is projecting only gradual cuts from here on out. But mortgage rates may swing up or down before the end of the year, depending on upcoming inflation and jobs reports.<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

For more on Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.15% (Sept. 18)<\/span><\/td>\nNear lowest level since February 2023<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.33%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.2% (week ending Sept. 12)<\/span><\/td>\nLowest level since February 2023<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.18%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nIncreased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 13)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 0.4%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nEssentially unchanged from a month earlier<\/span><\/p>\n

(as of week ending Sept. 15)<\/span><\/td>\n

Down 7%<\/span><\/td>\nRedfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 8% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 16)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was down 3% from the start of 2023<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 8% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 16)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 16%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 15, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending Sept. 15, 2024<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$385,375<\/span><\/td>\n3.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$398,475<\/span><\/td>\n5.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,534 at a 6.2% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n-2.7%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest decline since May 2020<\/span><\/p>\n

Nearly $300 below April\u2019s all-time high\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n75,933<\/span><\/td>\n-6.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n88,196<\/span><\/td>\n5.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n998,854<\/span><\/td>\n16.1%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest increase since April<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n3.9<\/span><\/td>\n+0.8 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level since February<\/span><\/p>\n

4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n34.4%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 38%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n37<\/span><\/td>\n+6 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n27.5%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 32%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n99%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.4 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 15, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/th>\nNotes<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nNewark, NJ (11.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Milwaukee (10.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Providence, RI (10.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nassau County, NY (8.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Warren, MI (7.9%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Austin, TX (-4.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Oakland, CA (-3.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio(-2.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Dallas (-2.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-1.5%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Declined in 9 metros<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nSan Antonio (7.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (6.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (5.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Diego (4.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cleveland (3.6%)<\/span><\/td>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-20%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami (-19.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (-14.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-14.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-14.2%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 15 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nLas Vegas (18.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (18.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (17.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New York (14.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (14.4%)<\/span><\/td>\n

San Antonio (-20.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-16%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Austin, TX (-11.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Francisco (-8.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Chicago (-4.7%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 12 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Monthly housing payments have declined nearly $300 from April\u2019s all-time high. Improving affordability has yet to push up pending sales, but that could change after the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this week. The median U.S. housing payment was $2,534 during the four weeks ending September 15, down 2.7% from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78571,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[623,655,654],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-national","tag-weekly-market-tracker","tag-weekly-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHousing Payments Post Biggest Decline in 4 Years Ahead of Fed's Historic Rate Cut, Which Could Lure Buyers Off the Sidelines<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Monthly housing payments have declined nearly $300 from April\u2019s all-time high. 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