{"id":78635,"date":"2024-10-03T05:00:46","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T12:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78635"},"modified":"2024-10-02T17:15:30","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T00:15:30","slug":"housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-demand-improving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-demand-improving\/","title":{"rendered":"September Was a Turning Point For Demand, With Pending Home Sales Flat After 9 Months of Declines and Tours Hitting Highest Level Since April"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pending home sales are flat from a year ago, marking the first time since January they haven\u2019t declined; on a local level, sales are increasing in most major metros. <\/span><\/i>Other demand indicators, like home tours and mortgage-rate locks, are also improving as mortgage rates drop to their lowest level in two years.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Pending U.S. home sales were flat from a year earlier during the four weeks ending September 29, marking the first time since January pending sales didn\u2019t decline. It\u2019s worth noting that we\u2019re comparing to a period last year when sales slumped as mortgage rates surged into the mid-7% range.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pending sales increased year over year in 27 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, the most since January<\/b>. They rose most in Phoenix, with a 13% increase, followed by San Jose (12%) and Portland, OR (10%). Homebuying demand is starting to improve in those places after dropping to a low point last year, but pending sales are still below pre-pandemic levels. (Sales are still posting big declines in Florida, where homebuyers have backed away due largely to climate disasters and rising insurance and HOA costs<\/a>. Pending sales fell 18% year over year in West Palm Beach, more than anywhere else in the country, followed by 16% drops in Fort Lauderdale and Miami.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Homebuying demand at earlier parts of the buying process is improving, too. <\/b>Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013<\/span>a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents\u2013is up 9% month over month to its highest level since April. Homebuyers locked in more than twice as many mortgages than they did a month earlier on September 30, according to <\/span>Optimal Blue data<\/span><\/a>, and mortgage-purchase applications are up 10% month over month.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Homebuyers are starting to return because housing costs are coming down<\/b>. The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to <\/span>6.08%<\/span><\/a> last week, its lowest level in two years, pushing the typical homebuyer\u2019s mortgage payment down to $2,529, near <\/span>its <\/span><\/i>lowest level since January. That\u2019s a 5.9% decline, the biggest year-over-year drop since May 2020. Additionally, the Fed\u2019s mid-September interest-rate cut caused many Americans to realize that mortgage rates have already declined about <\/span>as much as they\u2019re going to<\/span><\/a> for the foreseeable future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Declining mortgage rates are also encouraging some homeowners to sell<\/b>, though that\u2019s not a new trend: Listings have been on the rise for nearly a year, and this week\u2019s 4.3% increase is on par with those over the last few months.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no doubt demand has picked up since the Fed\u2019s interest-rate cut; I\u2019m seeing much more traffic at my listings. But even though homes are selling, they\u2019re still not typically getting multiple offers,\u201d said Max Shadle<\/a>, a Redfin Premier agent in Phoenix. \u201cFalling rates are an incentive for homeowners to sell, too, because they know demand is coming back and they feel less locked in by their relatively low rate. But many people still have an ultra-low mortgage rate from a few years ago, and they\u2019re not quite ready to let go.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.25% (Oct. 2)<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 6.11% two weeks earlier, but still near lowest level since February 2023<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.61%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.08% (week ending Sept. 26)<\/span><\/td>\nLowest level in 2 years<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.31%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nIncreased 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 27)<\/span><\/td>\nUp 9%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nHighest level since April; up 9% from a month earlier<\/span><\/p>\n

(as of week ending Sept. 29)<\/span><\/td>\n

Up 2%<\/span><\/p>\n

Biggest increase in over a year<\/span><\/td>\n

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 2% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 29)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was down 8% from the start of 2023<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 6% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 30)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 8%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 29, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending Sept. 29, 2024<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$383,375<\/span><\/td>\n4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$401,700<\/span><\/td>\n5.3%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase since February<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,529 at a 6.08% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n-5.9%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest decline since May 2020<\/span><\/p>\n

Near lowest level since January<\/span><\/p>\n

Nearly $300 below April\u2019s all-time high\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n76,034<\/span><\/td>\nunchanged<\/span><\/td>\nFirst time since January pending sales haven\u2019t posted a decline<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n88,254<\/span><\/td>\n4.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n1,010,788<\/span><\/td>\n16.6%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest increase since April<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n4.2<\/span><\/td>\n+0.9 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level since February<\/span><\/p>\n

4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n34.2%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 39%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n39<\/span><\/td>\n+7 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n26.7%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n98.9%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.4 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 29, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/th>\n\n

Notes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nNewark, NJ (13.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nassau County, NY (10.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Providence, RI (9.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cincinnati (9.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Montgomery County, PA (9.1%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Austin, TX (-4.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-2.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Worth, TX (-1.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Denver (-1.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Dallas (-1.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Oakland, CA (-0.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio (-0.1%)<\/span><\/th>\n

\n

Declined in 7 metros<\/span><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nPhoenix (12.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (12.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (9.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Boston (9.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (7.7%)<\/span><\/td>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-17.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-16.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami (-16.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-13.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (-13.1%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 27 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nSan Jose, CA (25.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (20.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New York (17.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (16.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Boston (15.7%)<\/span><\/td>\n

San Antonio (-18.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-17%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-16.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (-15.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Los Angeles (-8.4%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 13 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pending home sales are flat from a year ago, marking the first time since January they haven\u2019t declined; on a local level, sales are increasing in most major metros. Other demand indicators, like home tours and mortgage-rate locks, are also improving as mortgage rates drop to their lowest level in two years.\u00a0 Pending U.S. home […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78648,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[32,625,623],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-housing-market-update","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSeptember Was a Turning Point For Demand, With Pending Home Sales Flat After 9 Months of Declines and Tours Hitting Highest Level Since April<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pending home sales are flat from a year ago, marking the first time since January they haven\u2019t declined; on a local level, sales are increasing in most major metros. 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