{"id":78665,"date":"2024-10-04T08:44:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T15:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78665"},"modified":"2024-10-04T10:07:19","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T17:07:19","slug":"september-jobs-report-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A much stronger-than-expected September<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> jobs report<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> pushed mortgage rates up from 6.26% to 6.53% today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>254,000 jobs were created in September and the unemployment rate declined 17 bps from 4.22% to 4.05%, blowing past expectations of roughly 150,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To put in context how surprising these numbers were, the number of jobs created in September was also higher than the three-month moving average job creation rate for the past six months. Most of the job creation was in hospitality (78,000), healthcare (45,000), and government (31,000). Construction job creation remained fairly constant at about 25,000. About 7 bps of the 17 bps decline in the unemployment rate came from 20-24 year olds leaving the labor force, probably heading back to college, indicating that the unemployment rate could have been temporarily elevated by college students looking for summer work and not finding it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that they saw no discernible effects from Hurricane Francine in this month\u2019s report. However, next month\u2019s jobs report will include the effect of Hurricane Helene as well as the ongoing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/boeing-strike-union-workers-walk-off-af5703df\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boeing strikes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The short-lived port strikes will have no effect.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>In the context of all recent labor market data, including job openings, quits, and unemployment insurance claims, the labor market has weakened meaningfully, but it is clearly on solid footing. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s report pushes the three-month moving average of the job creation rate to 186,000 jobs per month, less than half of what it was two years ago and 13% lower than it was a year ago. The three-month moving average of the unemployment rate remains at 4.2% meaning the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-to-fall-significantly-following-weak-jobs-report\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sahm Rule<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is still triggered as it is half a percentage point higher than it was in January. Unemployment claims remain low at around 220,000 per week and job openings remain elevated at 8.04 million. Panning out to the rest of the economy, the consumer appears to be rock solid, with spending holding up and earnings reports generally strong. All in all, the economy appears to be at little risk of a recession, despite having cooled in this era of higher rates, with Q4 annualized <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GDP growth<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> tracking at 2.5%. Importantly, there is also still little reason to worry about inflation re-accelerating. Indeed, today\u2019s report most likely ups the probability of a soft landing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>There is no chance of a 50 bps cut in the November 7 Fed meeting now, with hawks likely to question whether the Fed should pause after the outsized 50 bps cut on September 18. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is one more jobs report coming on November 1, as well as an inflation report on October 10. There is practically no chance the next jobs reports will be weak enough to push the Fed to another 50 bps cut, as they will be able to ascribe any weakness to Helene. In contrast, if we see another blowout report like today (and the bar will be lower because of Helene) the hawks will have ammunition to argue that the Fed should be cutting 25 bps every other meeting. Indeed, before August 2, the forecasted unemployment rate was 4.1% (matching what was reported today) and the view was that the Fed would cut 25 bps every other meeting. Taking a broader view, however, it\u2019s not clear that argument should carry the day, since fundamentally, inflation is still headed back to target and the labor market is not strong enough to generate more inflation. So, it\u2019s not clear why the Fed Funds rate should remain in such restrictive territory. While no one ever knows where neutral is at any given moment, it\u2019s almost surely not at 5%, where the Fed Funds rate currently stands.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\">6.26% to 6.53%<\/a> following today&#8217;s report. Rates will remain higher until there is more evidence of economic weakness. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further evidence of more economic strength than expected would push rates even higher. With a recession a more distant possibility after today\u2019s data, much lower rates in the near- to medium-term seems unlikely, even as the Fed slowly eases.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-78668\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1-e1728060823243.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"850\" height=\"526\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Updated at 1:00pm ET to reflect latest daily mortgage rate data.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report pushed mortgage rates up from 6.26% to 6.53% today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":78666,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-78665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates to Climb Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report will push mortgage rates up significantly today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report will push mortgage rates up significantly today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Redfin Real Estate News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-04T15:44:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-04T17:07:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chen Zhao\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chen Zhao\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Chen Zhao\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a0a62ede97b24e6f17c1cffb6ffdd574\"},\"headline\":\"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-04T15:44:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-04T17:07:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":728,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Economics\",\"national\"],\"articleSection\":[\"From Our Economists\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2024\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/\",\"name\":\"Mortgage Rates to Climb Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-04T15:44:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-04T17:07:19+00:00\",\"description\":\"A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report will push mortgage rates up significantly today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":1800,\"height\":1200},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/september-jobs-report-analysis\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/\",\"name\":\"Redfin Real Estate News\",\"description\":\"The latest real estate news and research from technology-powered residential real estate company, Redfin.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Redfin\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/Redfin-News-Logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/Redfin-News-Logo.png\",\"width\":1100,\"height\":235,\"caption\":\"Redfin\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/redfin\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/redfin\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/redfinrealestate\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/redfin\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pinterest.com\\\/redfin\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/en.wikipedia.org\\\/wiki\\\/Redfin\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a0a62ede97b24e6f17c1cffb6ffdd574\",\"name\":\"Chen Zhao\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg83fdc0124d9fcdfe5e5d8583a850a63f\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/09\\\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Chen Zhao\"},\"description\":\"Chen Zhao is the head of economics research, where she produces research on the housing market for public and internal audiences. Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/author\\\/chen-zhao\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Mortgage Rates to Climb Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report","description":"A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report will push mortgage rates up significantly today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report","og_description":"A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report will push mortgage rates up significantly today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/","og_site_name":"Redfin Real Estate News","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin","article_published_time":"2024-10-04T15:44:07+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-10-04T17:07:19+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1707,"url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Chen Zhao","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@redfin","twitter_site":"@redfin","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Chen Zhao","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/"},"author":{"name":"Chen Zhao","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/a0a62ede97b24e6f17c1cffb6ffdd574"},"headline":"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report","datePublished":"2024-10-04T15:44:07+00:00","dateModified":"2024-10-04T17:07:19+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/"},"wordCount":728,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg","keywords":["Economics","national"],"articleSection":["From Our Economists"],"inLanguage":"en-US","copyrightYear":"2024","copyrightHolder":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#organization"}},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/","name":"Mortgage Rates to Climb Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg","datePublished":"2024-10-04T15:44:07+00:00","dateModified":"2024-10-04T17:07:19+00:00","description":"A much stronger-than-expected September jobs report will push mortgage rates up significantly today. Debate about Federal Reserve rate cuts will now shift from choosing between a pace of 25 bps or 50 bps cuts each meeting, to choosing between 25 bps each meeting or 25 bps every other meeting. Ultimately, the answer will be determined by data in upcoming months, clarifying how weak the labor market is.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/pexels-anntarazevich-14751274-scaled.jpg","width":1800,"height":1200},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Mortgage Rates Jump Higher Following Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/","name":"Redfin Real Estate News","description":"The latest real estate news and research from technology-powered residential real estate company, Redfin.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#organization","name":"Redfin","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Redfin-News-Logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Redfin-News-Logo.png","width":1100,"height":235,"caption":"Redfin"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin","https:\/\/x.com\/redfin","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/redfinrealestate\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/redfin","https:\/\/www.pinterest.com\/redfin\/","https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Redfin"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/a0a62ede97b24e6f17c1cffb6ffdd574","name":"Chen Zhao","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg83fdc0124d9fcdfe5e5d8583a850a63f","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","caption":"Chen Zhao"},"description":"Chen Zhao is the head of economics research, where she produces research on the housing market for public and internal audiences. Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78665\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78665"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=78665"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=78665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}