{"id":78674,"date":"2024-10-10T05:00:52","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T12:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78674"},"modified":"2024-10-09T17:52:17","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T00:52:17","slug":"housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-increase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-increase\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Post Biggest Increase Since 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

Home sales are rising in most major U.S. metros as housing payments sit near their lowest level since January, but they\u2019re falling in coastal Florida as hurricanes hit the southeastern U.S. Mortgage rates rebounded over the weekend; that could soon begin to impact homebuyer demand.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Pending U.S. home sales rose 2% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending October 6, the biggest increase in three years. Demand picked up at earlier stages of the homebuying process, too. Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013<\/span>a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents\u2013sat near its highest level since May last week, and mortgage-purchase applications are <\/span>up 8%<\/span><\/a> month over month. New listings are also rising, with a 5.7% year-over-year uptick. But unlike the increase in pending sales, that\u2019s a continuation of a trend; new listings have been increasing for nearly a year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pending sales improved because buyers came out of the woodwork in late September after the <\/span>Fed\u2019s interest-rate cut<\/span><\/a>, even though mortgage rates had already been declining for several weeks in anticipation of the cut. Falling mortgage rates have pushed the typical homebuyer\u2019s housing payment down to $2,526, near its lowest level since January and down 5.8% year over year. It\u2019s worth noting that we\u2019re comparing to a period last year when sales waned as mortgage rates surged to 7.5%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates jumped over the weekend, which could deter some buyers in the coming weeks<\/h3>\n

The improvement in sales may slow in the coming weeks, as mortgage rates started rising last Friday after a <\/span>surprisingly strong jobs report<\/span><\/a>. Daily average mortgage rates jumped to 6.62% on Monday from\u00a0 <\/span>6.26%<\/span><\/a> last Thursday. We expect some buyers may back off due to rising rates, but not all of them: Mortgage rates are still significantly lower than they were a year ago\u2013and lower than earlier this year\u2013and the Fed is on track to continue cutting interest rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHouse hunters are monitoring mortgage rates closely, but so far, the increase in rates isn\u2019t slowing buyers down. The home I listed on Thursday got a lot of traffic over the weekend and received 10 offers,” said Shoshana Godwin<\/a>, a Redfin Premier agent in Seattle<\/a>. \u201cI\u2019m advising buyers to make an offer if they love a home; don\u2019t try to time the market. Rates have swung down and then up over the last few weeks, and we don\u2019t know exactly what will happen in the <\/span>next <\/span><\/i>few weeks. <\/span>A buyer may lock in a slightly higher rate now than they would have two weeks ago, but if they wait, it\u2019s possible rates will increase more. It\u2019s also possible rates drop more significantly, which could heat up competition.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Sales are falling in coastal Florida, partly due to Hurricane Helene<\/h3>\n

Pending home sales are rising in most major metros, but they\u2019re falling in some places, most notably Florida. In West Palm Beach, pending sales fell 17.6%, the biggest decline of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, followed closely by Tampa (-15.5%) and Miami (-14.8%). That\u2019s due partly to <\/span>Hurricane Helene<\/span><\/a>, but coastal Florida\u2019s housing market has been slowing over the last several months as insurance and HOA costs surge due to the increasing prevalence of climate disasters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hurricane Helene\u2013and <\/span>Hurricane Milton<\/span><\/a>, which hit just days later\u2013may have a bigger impact on future home sales; a recent <\/span>Redfin survey<\/span><\/a> found that nearly one-third of young adults are reconsidering where they want to move after seeing or hearing about damage caused by the hurricane.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.61% (Oct. 9)<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 6.11% 3 weeks earlier<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.7%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.12% (week ending Oct. 3)<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 2-year low of 6.08% a week earlier<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.49%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nEssentially unchanged from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 4)<\/span><\/td>\nUp 8%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nNear highest level since May; up 5% from a month earlier<\/span><\/p>\n

(as of week ending Oct. 6)<\/span><\/td>\n

Up 2%<\/span><\/p>\n

Biggest increase in about a year<\/span><\/td>\n

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 8% from the start of the year (as of Oct. 6)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was down 9% from the start of 2023<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 2% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 6)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 11%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 6, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending Oct. 6, 2024<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$383,225<\/span><\/td>\n4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$399,925<\/span><\/td>\n5.7%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in 2 years<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,526 at a 6.12% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n-5.8%<\/span><\/td>\nNear lowest level since January<\/span><\/p>\n

Nearly $300 below April\u2019s all-time high\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n77,951<\/span><\/td>\n2%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in nearly 3 years<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n89,388<\/span><\/td>\n5.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n1,041,247<\/span><\/td>\n18%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest increase since April<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n3.9<\/span><\/td>\n+0.7 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n34.2%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 40%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n39<\/span><\/td>\n+7 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n26.1%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n98.8%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.4 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 6, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/th>\nNotes<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nNewark, NJ (11.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nassau County, NY (11.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Milwaukee (10%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Chicago (9.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cleveland (9.7%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Austin, TX (-4.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-2.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio (-2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Oakland, CA (-1.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Worth, TX (-0.6%<\/span><\/th>\n

\n

Declined in 5 metros<\/span><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nPhoenix (14.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (12.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (11.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio (11.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Virginia Beach, VA (11.2%)<\/span><\/td>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-17.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-15.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami (-14.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-12.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-12.5%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 32 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nSan Jose, CA (24.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (21.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (19.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (18.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Baltimore, MD (17.2%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Atlanta (-18.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-16.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio (-12.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-8.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Austin, TX (-5.6%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 9 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Home sales are rising in most major U.S. metros as housing payments sit near their lowest level since January, but they\u2019re falling in coastal Florida as hurricanes hit the southeastern U.S. Mortgage rates rebounded over the weekend; that could soon begin to impact homebuyer demand. Pending U.S. home sales rose 2% from a year earlier […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78688,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[623,655,654],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-national","tag-weekly-market-tracker","tag-weekly-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPending Home Sales Post Biggest Increase Since 2021<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Home sales are rising in most major U.S. metros as housing payments sit near their lowest level since January, but they\u2019re falling in coastal Florida as hurricanes hit the southeastern U.S. Mortgage rates rebounded over the weekend; 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