{"id":78701,"date":"2024-10-10T07:43:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T14:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78701"},"modified":"2024-10-10T07:43:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T14:43:07","slug":"september-cpi-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-cpi-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Won’t Budge Much After Warmer-Than-Expected CPI Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

A tad warmer-than-expected<\/span><\/i> September inflation report<\/span><\/i><\/a> will keep mortgage rates at the levels they\u2019ve risen to since last Friday\u2019s blowout jobs report. With the Fed laser-focused on the job market, today\u2019s report allows the Fed to cut rates by another 25 bps at their November 7 meeting, barring another surprising jobs report on November 1.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3% in September month over month and 3.3% from a year ago, a touch higher than expectations of 0.2% MoM (3.2% YoY). <\/b>Looking under the hood, the main category keeping inflation slightly above the Fed\u2019s target\u2014shelter inflation\u2014fell to 0.2% MoM, potentially signaling the start of a long-awaited drop. That\u2019s because CPI shelter lags behind market-based measures of rent by a long, but unknown period of time. Both of the main subcategories of shelter inflation\u2014rent of primary residence and owner\u2019s equivalent rent\u2014fell considerably to 0.3% MoM. Some of the overall beat in today\u2019s report came from a considerable uptick in medical care services inflation, which rose from -0.1% MoM to 0.7% MoM. However, that category can be volatile due to statistical quirks in how the data is updated and does not carry through to core PCE, the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, which will be released later this month. September PPI data will be released tomorrow and, together with today\u2019s CPI data, will allow for a fairly accurate forecast of core PCE.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s inflation data keeps the Fed on a path towards a 25 bps rate cut at their November 7 meeting, but much depends on the November 1 jobs report. <\/b>Mortgage rates have risen by about <\/span>50 bps<\/span><\/a> since <\/span>Friday\u2019s jobs report<\/span><\/a>, though they remain well below rates at this time last year and the peak this spring. Fed funds futures markets have cut back meaningfully on their expectations of the pace of Fed rate cuts. The market was previously expecting about 25 bps more in cuts in 2024 and 50 bps more in cuts in 2025 than the Fed\u2019s latest <\/span>projection<\/span><\/a> indicated, but markets are now in line with the Fed\u2019s projections. Ultimately, economic data trumps both market expectations and Fed projections in determining the path of mortgage rates. The key remaining piece of data before the next Fed meeting is the November 1 jobs report, which will help to clarify whether the job market is as strong as last Friday\u2019s report would suggest, or if it is indeed weakening, as suggested by the previous two months of jobs reports and today\u2019s unexpectedly high <\/span>UI claims data<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A tad warmer-than-expected September inflation report will keep mortgage rates at the levels they\u2019ve risen to since last Friday\u2019s blowout jobs report. With the Fed laser-focused on the job market, today\u2019s report allows the Fed to cut rates by another 25 bps at their November 7 meeting, barring another surprising jobs report on November 1. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":78703,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-78701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMortgage Rates Won't Budge Much After September CPI Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A tad warmer-than-expected September inflation report will keep mortgage rates at the levels they\u2019ve risen to since last Friday\u2019s blowout jobs report. 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