{"id":78714,"date":"2024-10-17T05:00:54","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T12:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78714"},"modified":"2024-10-16T16:11:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T23:11:22","slug":"housing-market-update-rising-mortgage-rates-pending-sales-holding-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-rising-mortgage-rates-pending-sales-holding-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising Mortgage Rates Haven\u2019t Yet Slowed Pending Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pending home sales posted their biggest increase since 2021 this week. But some house hunters are starting to pull back.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Home sales are rising. <\/b>Pending U.S. home sales rose 3.2% year over year during the four weeks ending October 13, the biggest increase in three years. On a local level, pending sales are up in 34 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest increases in California and in Portland, OR. Sales have improved over the last month because mortgage rates fell to a two-year low at the end of September amid the Fed\u2019s highly anticipated <\/span>interest-rate cut<\/span><\/a>. Please note that we\u2019re comparing to a period in 2023 when sales slumped as mortgage rates approached a <\/span>two-decade high<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates are rising. <\/b>Mortgage rates have ticked up over the last few weeks, largely due to a <\/span>stronger-than-expected<\/span><\/a> jobs report on October 4: The weekly average 30-year rate is <\/span>6.32%<\/span><\/a>, compared to 6.08% during the last week of September. Home prices are also rising, with the median sale price posting a 4.7% year-over-year increase, the biggest uptick since March. That has pushed the typical homebuyer\u2019s monthly payment up nearly $100 from a month ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Home tours and mortgage-purchase applications have flattened out. <\/b>Rising rates have slowed demand somewhat at\u00a0 earlier stages of the homebuying process.\u00a0 Some would-be buyers seem to be waiting for rates to come back down: Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents\u2013has fallen marginally from the six-month high it hit two weeks ago, though it is up 7% year over year. And mortgage-purchase applications are <\/span>down 7%<\/span><\/a> week over week, but they are still trending up from a year ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sellers are taking a small step back as rates rise: New listings are up 3.6% nationwide, the smallest year-over-year increase in a month.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSo far, higher rates haven\u2019t slowed buyers down in the Minneapolis area. But buyers are negotiating more heavily than they have in years, trying to shave money off the home price because they\u2019re taking on a pretty high rate,\u201d said Emily Olson<\/a>, a Redfin Premier<\/a> agent in Minneapolis. \u201cIt\u2019s a good strategy, because sellers are receptive to it. Sellers know every buyer taking on a mortgage is contending with high rates, and they would rather get their house sold now than let it linger on the market going into the holiday season.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.63% (Oct. 16)<\/span><\/td>\nNear highest level in 3 months<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.69%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.32% (week ending Oct. 10)<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 2-year low of 6.08% 2 weeks earlier<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.57%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 7%\u00a0 from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 11)<\/span><\/td>\nUp 7%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 6% from a month earlier<\/span><\/p>\n

(as of week ending Oct. 13)<\/span><\/td>\n

Up 7%<\/span><\/p>\n

Biggest increase in over a year<\/span><\/td>\n

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 2% from the start of the year (as of Oct. 13)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was down 12% from the start of 2023<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 4% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 13)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 4%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 13, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending Oct. 13, 2024<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$384,412<\/span><\/td>\n4.7%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase since March<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$399,675<\/span><\/td>\n6%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in 2 years<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,566 at a 6.32% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n-4.5%<\/span><\/td>\nUp from $2,489 a month earlier\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n76,447<\/span><\/td>\n3.2%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in nearly 3 years<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n85,943<\/span><\/td>\n3.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n1,024,565<\/span><\/td>\n16%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest increase since March<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/td>\n+0.6 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n33.8%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 39%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n39<\/span><\/td>\n+6 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n26%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 30%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n98.8%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.3 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 13, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\n\n

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Notes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nFort Lauderdale, FL (11.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Milwaukee (10.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Providence, RI (10.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Chicago (10.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nassau County, NY (10.1%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Austin, TX (-4.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio (-1.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nashville, TN (-0.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-0.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Worth, TX (-0.1%)<\/span><\/th>\n

\n

Declined in 5 metros<\/span><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nPortland, OR (17.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Los Angeles (16%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (15.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (15.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (14.4%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Tampa, FL (-27.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-18.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-14.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami (-13.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Orlando, FL (-12%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 34 metros<\/span><\/p>\n

The last time pending sales increased in this many metro areas was in May 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

New listings<\/b><\/td>\nSan Jose, CA (22.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (19.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, CA (18.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (17.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Baltimore, MD (16%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Tampa, FL (-36.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-17.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-13.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Orlando, FL (-12%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-6.9%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 11 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pending home sales posted their biggest increase since 2021 this week. But some house hunters are starting to pull back.\u00a0 Home sales are rising. Pending U.S. home sales rose 3.2% year over year during the four weeks ending October 13, the biggest increase in three years. On a local level, pending sales are up in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[623,655,654],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-national","tag-weekly-market-tracker","tag-weekly-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRising Mortgage Rates Haven\u2019t Yet Slowed Pending Sales<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pending home sales posted their biggest increase since 2021 this week. 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