{"id":78732,"date":"2024-10-18T05:00:43","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T12:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78732"},"modified":"2024-10-17T16:59:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T23:59:39","slug":"pending-home-sales-rise-most-since-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/pending-home-sales-rise-most-since-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Jumped 2.5% in September, the Biggest Monthly Increase in Over a Year and a Half"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Pending sales rose 2.5% month over month as mortgage rates hit a two-year low and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Rates have since ticked up.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Existing home sales, which are a lagging indicator, fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,023,067. That\u2019s the lowest level on record aside from the start of the pandemic.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Home sales plummeted across Florida, which has been grappling with a housing insurance crisis\u2014and now, devastation from two major hurricanes.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pending home sales jumped 2.5% month over month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest increase since January 2023. They rose 3.1% year over year, the biggest annual increase since May 2021. Pending sales climbed last month for two reasons:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Mortgage rates <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1bnGA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>fell<\/b><\/a><b> to the lowest level in two years<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, giving buyers more purchasing power.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates and outlined a plan for future rate cuts.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Redfin agents say some house hunters jumped into the market because they assumed the Fed\u2019s September 18 decision would cause mortgage rates to plunge. But by that point, much of the decline had <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-fed-decision-cut\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">already happened<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Mortgage rates actually ticked <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">up<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> after the Fed\u2019s decision. That\u2019s because markets had already priced in aggressive expectations for rate cuts, and employment data came in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-jobs-report-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hotter than expected<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, buyers are getting better rates than they were a year ago, when mortgage rates were above 7%. The weekly average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage now sits at 6.44% after hitting a two-year low of 6.08% in late September. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their November 7 meeting, which <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/fed-rate-cutes-mortgages\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shouldn\u2019t<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> have a big impact on mortgage rates. But that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-cpi-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">could<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> change if the November 1 jobs report has any surprises.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cSeptember showed that there are buyers and sellers who are ready to jump into the market\u2014when the conditions are right,\u201d said Redfin Senior Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/elijah-delacampa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Elijah de la Campa<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cMost buyers who went under contract last month did so when mortgage rates were falling and before two major hurricanes devastated much of the South. We\u2019re closely watching October data to see whether the recent increase in rates and widespread devastation from the storms causes the market to slow back down.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">De la Campa continued: \u201cMy advice for buyers is don\u2019t try to time the market. There are a lot of swing factors, like the upcoming jobs report and the presidential election, that could cause the housing market to take unexpected twists and turns. If you find a house you love and can afford to buy it, now\u2019s not a bad time. Mortgage rates are still down from their peak, and buyers in some areas are able to negotiate because homes have been sitting on the market.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Closed sales of existing homes, many of which were negotiated before the latest drop in mortgage rates, dropped to the lowest level on record aside from the start of the pandemic. They fell 0.5% month over month and 3% year over year in September\u2014to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,023,067.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78733\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS-1024x688.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"537\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS-1024x688.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS-1536x1032.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS-2048x1376.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/EHS.png 1786w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overall closed home sales (including existing and new homes) fell 0.2% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and declined 1.6% year over year\u2014to the lowest level since December.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">September 2024 Housing Market Highlights: United States<\/span><\/h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th><b>September 2024<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>Month-over-month change<\/b><\/th>\n<th><b>Year-over-year change<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$428,212<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1.1%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.9%<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Existing home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4,023,067<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.5%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3.0%<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Pending home sales, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">478,074<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.5%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.1%<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Homes sold, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">412,635<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.2%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1.6%<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>New listings, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">513,345<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.8%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.7%<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Total homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings)<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1,651,244<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.2%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14.9%<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Months of supply<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.1<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.4<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.5<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Median days on market<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">39<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Share of homes sold above final list price<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">28.4%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1.8 ppts<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-4.8 ppts<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th><b>Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio<\/b><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">99.1%<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.2 ppts<\/span><\/th>\n<th><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.5 ppts<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.3 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.6 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1bnGA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Monthly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.18%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.32 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1.02 ppts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: Data is subject to revision<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home Sales Plummet Across Florida\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In West Palm Beach, FL, closed home sales dropped 23% year over year in September\u2014the biggest decline among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. Next came three other Florida metros: Tampa (-21.9%), Miami (-19.8%) and Fort Lauderdale (-18.7%). Please note that metro-level data is not seasonally adjusted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hurricane Helene made <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ilm\/Helene2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">landf<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">all<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the Big Bend area of the Florida Gulf Coast on Se<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ptember 26, and went on to devastate Appalachia, becoming the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/weather\/2024\/10\/03\/hurricane-helene-deadliest-mainland-since-katrina-storm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">deadliest<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> storm to hit mainland America since Hurricane Katrina. Then, less than two weeks later, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida. That may have an impact on October home sales.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe have listings that were flooded and taken off the market, and sellers who were getting ready to list but can\u2019t because they need to repair damage,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/marydell-penney\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MaryDell Penney<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Redfin\u2019s market manager in Orlando, FL. \u201cClosings are being delayed because most lenders require post-storm reinspections, and insurers stop writing new policies when there\u2019s a named storm in the region.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penney continued: \u201cContracts all have a force majeure section outlining what happens if services are shut down because of a natural disaster, etc. They also specify the risk of loss and seller&#8217;s obligation to repair damage if the cost of restoration doesn\u2019t exceed 1.5% of the purchase price. If damage exceeds that, then the buyer can either take the property as-is along with 1.5% from the seller, or the buyer can walk away.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A recent Redfin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homeowner-hurricane-repair-funds-survey\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> found that two in five Florida residents have set aside money <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for home repairs related to unpredictable events caused by climate change.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida\u2019s housing market had already been cooling prior to hurricane season amid rising inventory, surging HOA fees and a housing insurance crisis. In the metro-level highlights section below, you\u2019ll notice that Florida is home to many of the metros that are showing signs of slowing, from sales to prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home Prices Continue to Climb Amid Shortage of Homes for Sale<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median home sale price in September was $428,212, up 3.9% from a year earlier. Prices are rising because even though listings have inched up in recent months, there\u2019s still a shortage of homes for sale.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New listings rose 0.8% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in September but were down 0.7% from a year earlier, and were 17.7% below pre-pandemic (September 2019) levels. Active listings rose 0.2% month over month and climbed 14.9% year over year, but were 23.1% below pre-pandemic levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell Than a Year Ago, And Fewer Are Going for Above the Asking Price<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One reason active listings have been piling up is that many homes have been sitting on the market. That\u2019s bad news for sellers, but it\u2019s good news for buyers because it means they may have room to negotiate. Redfin agents recommend that sellers price their homes fairly from the get-go so they can sell quickly and don\u2019t have to drop their price later on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home that sold in September was on the market for 39 days, up from 33 a year earlier. A little over one-third (36.5%) of homes that sold went under contract within two weeks, down from 42.3% in September 2023. And less than one-third (28.4%) of homes that sold last month went for more than their asking price, compared with roughly one-third (33.2%) a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Metro-Level Highlights: September 2024<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bullets below are based on a list of the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. Some metros may be removed from time to time to ensure data accuracy. A full metro-level data table can be found in the \u201cdownload\u201d tab of the dashboard in<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the monthly section of the Redfin <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/data-center\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data Center<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Refer to our <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/data-center-metrics-definitions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">metrics definition page<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for explanations of metrics used in this report. Metro-level data is not seasonally adjusted. All changes below represent year-over-year changes.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Prices: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in Newark, NJ (12.4%), Providence, RI (11.1%) and Nassau County, NY (10.8%). They fell in seven metros, with the biggest declines in Austin, TX (-6.5%), Tampa, FL (-3.4%) and Fort Worth, TX (-2.1%).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Pending sales: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pending sales rose most in Phoenix (15%), Portland, OR (11.9%) and Seattle (10.7%). They fell most in West Palm Beach, FL (-14.9%), Miami (-14.4%) and Fort Lauderdale, FL (-13%).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Closed home sales:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Home sales rose most in San Jose, CA (8.1%), San Diego (5.9%) and San Francisco (5.6%). They fell most in West Palm Beach (-23%), Tampa (-21.9%) and Miami (-19.8%).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>New listings: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New listings rose most in Boston (15.9%), Providence (14%) and Anaheim, CA (13.9%). They fell most in Atlanta (-20.2%), San Antonio (-20.1%) and Tampa (-17.8%).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Active listings:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Active listings rose most in Fort Lauderdale (43.1%), San Diego (41.3%) and Cincinnati (40.2%). They fell in three metros: New York (-5.8%), Atlanta (-2.3%) and Chicago (-0.9%).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b style=\"font-style: inherit;\">Sold above list price:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> In Newark, 65.6% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came San Jose (61.5%) and San Francisco (56.2%). The shares were lowest in West Palm Beach (7%), Miami (9.6%) and Fort Lauderdale (10%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pending sales rose 2.5% month over month as mortgage rates hit a two-year low and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Rates have since ticked up. Existing home sales, which are a lagging indicator, fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,023,067. That\u2019s the lowest level on record aside from the start of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":71934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,22],"tags":[32,623],"coauthors":[125],"class_list":["post-78732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-market-tracker","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pending Home Sales Jump Most in Over a Year and a Half<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Home sales plummeted across Florida, which has been grappling with a housing insurance crisis\u2014and now, devastation from two major hurricanes.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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