{"id":78773,"date":"2024-10-31T05:00:04","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T12:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78773"},"modified":"2024-10-30T15:21:30","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T22:21:30","slug":"housing-market-update-housing-market-active-election-high-mortgage-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-housing-market-active-election-high-mortgage-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Market Stays Surprisingly Active As Election Looms and Mortgage Rates Hit 7%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Even with the impending presidential election and mortgage rates surpassing 7% for the first time since July, pending home sales posted their biggest increase in three years. But Redfin agents report some would-be homebuyers are pressing pause on starting their house hunt until the election passes.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates rose to <\/span>7%<\/span><\/a> for the first time since early July this week, erasing their late-summer decline into the low-6% range. Rising rates, combined with <\/span>economic uncertainty<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>anxiety<\/span><\/a> brought on by the impending presidential election, are causing some prospective homebuyers and sellers to press pause\u2013but the effect is smaller than expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the buying side, pending U.S. home sales rose 4.5% year over year during the four weeks ending October 27, the biggest increase in more than three years. On the selling side, new listings of homes for sale rose 3.4%, in line with the increases we\u2019ve seen over the last several months.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But those numbers don\u2019t tell the whole story. <\/b>First, they measure a four-week period ending just before mortgage rates hit 7%; some people may see 7% as the threshold beyond which they won\u2019t buy or sell. Second, we\u2019re comparing to a period in October 2023 when weekly average mortgage rates hit a two-decade high of <\/span>7.79%<\/span><\/a>, dramatically slowing housing-market activity. And finally, there <\/span>are <\/span><\/i>signs that house hunters are backing off at earlier stages of the homebuying journey. Mortgage-purchase applications are <\/span>down 8%<\/span><\/a> from a month ago. And Redfin agents report that many buyers and sellers are sitting on the sidelines until after the election, aligning with a <\/span>recent Redfin survey<\/span><\/a> finding that nearly one-quarter of prospective first-time buyers are holding off until post-election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Even with those caveats, pending home sales and listings are holding up surprisingly well. <\/b>Rising mortgage rates, combined with stubbornly high home prices, have brought the typical U.S. homebuyer\u2019s monthly mortgage payment to $2,593, near its highest level since July, and <\/span>cut into<\/span><\/a> buyers\u2019 purchasing power. Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao<\/a> said she would expect a bigger dropoff in homebuying and selling activity with the jump in mortgage rates, especially given that the country is a week away from a highly consequential and uncertain presidential election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile it\u2019s not unusual for mortgage rates to rise heading into an election as investors\u2019 expectations change, mortgage rates surging to 7% after the <\/span>Fed\u2019s interest-rate cut<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 is surprising, as is the fact that pending sales have remained resilient,\u201d Zhao said. \u201cThere was a possibility that mortgage rates would rise after the September rate cut, but we didn\u2019t expect them to rise this much. There was a window of 6% mortgage rates early this fall, but that window was shorter than expected. It\u2019s possible 7% rates will also have a short window; rates could decline depending on the outcome of the election, if the <\/span>worries driving bond-market investors<\/span><\/a> to demand higher rates dissipate.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Redfin agents say some house hunters and would-be sellers are taking a breather in the lead-up to the election<\/h3>\n

\u201cThe last week or so has been quieter than usual because we\u2019re getting so close to the election, and people are wary about making a huge purchase just before a major event. New buyers aren\u2019t jumping into their house hunt this week, and sellers probably aren\u2019t going to choose the Friday before a presidential election to list their home. But buyers and sellers who are already under contract are moving forward, and I expect activity to pick up again in a few weeks.\u201d \u2013<\/span>Nicole Stewart<\/span><\/a>, Redfin Premier agent in Boise, ID<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBuyers are more cautious; they know they have some time to wait on the sidelines because listings are sitting on the market longer than usual. The election is playing a larger role in the slowdown than I\u2019ve seen in the past. I think it\u2019s partly because of the overwhelming stress of this election, and partly because the country feels more divided than ever before, and nobody knows what impact the election will have on the economy or interest rates.\u201d \u2013<\/span>Blakely Minton<\/span><\/a>, Redfin Premier agent in Philadelphia<\/span><\/p>\n

“October has been a busy month overall, but this week election anxiety is kicking in. Some buyers and sellers have backed off, saying they’re waiting to see what happens with the election before they make a move. But mortgage rates aren’t stopping anyone; buyers are used to high rates.” \u2013<\/span>Heather Mahmood-Corley<\/span><\/a>, Redfin Premier agent in Phoenix<\/span><\/p>\n

For Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n7.02% (Oct. 30)<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level since July (except Oct. 29, when it was 7.08%)<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.98%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.54% (week ending Oct. 24)<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 2-year low of 6.08% a month earlier<\/span><\/td>\nDown from two-decade high of 7.79%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 5%\u00a0 from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 25)<\/span><\/td>\nUp 10%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUnchanged from a month earlier<\/span><\/p>\n

(as of week ending Oct. 27)<\/span><\/td>\n

Up 7%<\/span><\/td>\nRedfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUnchanged from the start of the year (as of Oct. 28)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was down 16% from the start of 2023<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 2% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 28)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 6%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 27, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending Oct. 27, 2024<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$387,000<\/span><\/td>\n5.5%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase since Feb.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$396,653<\/span><\/td>\n5.9%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in 2 years<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,593 at a 6.54% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n-3.8%<\/span><\/td>\nUp from $2,480 6 weeks earlier; near highest level since July<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n74,091<\/span><\/td>\n4.5%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in nearly 3 years\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n83,295<\/span><\/td>\n3.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n1,031,588<\/span><\/td>\n14.8%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest increase since March<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n4.1<\/span><\/td>\n+0.5 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n32.8%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 38%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n40<\/span><\/td>\n+7 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n25.8%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 30%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n98.7%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.3 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 27, 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/th>\n\n

Notes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nFort Lauderdale, FL (15.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Milwaukee (14.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (10%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Providence, RI (9.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Warren, MI (9.5%)<\/span><\/th>\n

San Antonio (-3.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Austin, TX (-2.7%)<\/span><\/th>\n

\n

Declined in 2 metros<\/span><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nSan Francisco (25%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (21.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (20%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Virginia Beach, VA (18%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Dallas (17.3%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Tampa, FL (-29.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-17.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-15.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami (-14.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Orlando, FL (-14.1%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 35 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nSan Jose, CA (21.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (18%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington, D.C. (15.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (15.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (15%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Tampa, FL (-32.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (-13.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta (-12.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Orlando, FL (-9.3%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 11 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Even with the impending presidential election and mortgage rates surpassing 7% for the first time since July, pending home sales posted their biggest increase in three years. But Redfin agents report some would-be homebuyers are pressing pause on starting their house hunt until the election passes.\u00a0 Mortgage rates rose to 7% for the first time […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78786,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[623,655,654],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-national","tag-weekly-market-tracker","tag-weekly-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHousing Market Stays Surprisingly Active As Election Looms and Mortgage Rates Hit 7%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Even with the impending presidential election and mortgage rates surpassing 7% for the first time since July, pending home sales posted their second-biggest increase in three years. 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