{"id":78857,"date":"2024-11-20T05:00:06","date_gmt":"2024-11-20T13:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78857"},"modified":"2024-11-19T15:20:22","modified_gmt":"2024-11-19T23:20:22","slug":"home-values-climate-risk-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-values-climate-risk-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Homes With Low Natural Disaster Risk Are Rising in Value Faster Than Homes With High Risk for the First Time in Over a Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><i>This year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across three major climate categories\u2014heat, fire and flood\u2014gained value faster than high-risk homes. That may be a sign Americans are growing more responsive to natural disasters. <\/i><\/strong><strong><i>Still, high-risk homes are much more valuable than they were before the pandemic.<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Homes facing low risk from natural disasters are rising in value faster than homes facing high risk:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total value of U.S. homes facing<\/span> <b>low risk of extreme heat<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up <\/span><b>7%<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">year over year to $17.7 trillion. The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>high risk of extreme heat<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up <\/span><b>6.3%<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to $29.7 trillion.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>low flood risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up<\/span> <b>6.7%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> year over year to $40.2 trillion. The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>high flood risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up<\/span> <b>6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to $7.2 trillion.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total value of homes facing<\/span> <b>low fire risk<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is up <\/span><b>6.6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> year over year to $39 trillion. The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>high fire risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up <\/span><b>6.4%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to $8.4 trillion.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While these differences are small, they are notable because this year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across all three categories\u2014heat, flood and fire\u2014rose in value faster than high-risk homes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-78865\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/agg_value_by_risk_and_status-967x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/agg_value_by_risk_and_status-967x1024.png 967w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/agg_value_by_risk_and_status-283x300.png 283w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/agg_value_by_risk_and_status-768x813.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/agg_value_by_risk_and_status.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 967px) 100vw, 967px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is based on a Redfin analysis of climate-risk scores from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/firststreet.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/redfin-estimate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Estimates<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for roughly 93 million U.S. residential properties as of June 2024. Year-ago values represent June 2023, and pre-pandemic values referenced in the next section represent June 2019. This data is subject to revision. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Roughly 58 million U.S. homes face high heat risk, while roughly 15 million face high fire risk and roughly 13 million face high flood risk. Please note that some homes face more than one type of risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Low-risk homes across all three risk categories have been gaining value faster than high-risk homes since February 2024. This is the first time Redfin is reporting the trend.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe fact that this is happening across risk types\u2014and thus, across the country\u2014is some of the best evidence we have that climate change is impacting people\u2019s homebuying decisions,\u201d said Redfin Senior Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/elijah-delacampa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Elijah de la Campa<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cWith climate catastrophes becoming increasingly frequent and calamitous, many people have decided they don\u2019t want to live in risky areas. And with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-insurance-survey-report-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">insurance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> costs skyrocketing, many risky areas that were once affordable have become prohibitively expensive. The reality of climate change is setting in and it\u2019s causing a reckoning; people are putting disaster risk higher on their list of considerations when looking for a home.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recent <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shifts<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in where Americans are choosing to live also indicate that people may be growing more responsive to climate risk. In California, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">high-fire-risk areas <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">saw<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more people leave than move in last year\u2014a reversal from the prior year. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin-commissioned <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/hurricane-helene-impacting-relocation-survey\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> conducted by Ipsos in October <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">found that nearly one-third of young adults say Hurricane Helene made them reconsider where they want to live in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One reason the value of low-risk homes is rising faster than the value of high-risk homes is that Florida and Texas\u2014which both face high natural disaster risk\u2014have seen among the slowest home value growth in the nation over the last year. In some areas, including hurricane-prone parts of Florida, that\u2019s likely due to natural disaster risk itself. But it\u2019s also because the rising cost of other things, like insurance and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/property-tax-homebuyer-increase-florida\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">property taxes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, has hurt demand. Additionally, Florida and Texas are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/bps\/data_visualizations\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">building<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more homes than anywhere else in the country, putting a lid on value growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While climate risk has become a top consideration for <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">some <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">house hunters, that\u2019s certainly not the case for everyone. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are still <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more people<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> moving into than out of disaster-prone America as a whole, which is one reason home values in disaster-prone areas continue to climb.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Home Values in High-Risk Areas Are Still Up More Than 60% Since Before the Pandemic<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><b><br \/>\n<\/b><b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The value of both high- and low-risk homes is up substantially from before the pandemic\u2014largely due to the 2020-2021 homebuying frenzy\u2014but it\u2019s up most for high-risk homes: <\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>high risk of extreme heat<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up <\/span><b>62.5% from before the pandemic<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The total value of homes facing low risk of extreme heat is up 53.2%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>high flood risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up<\/span><b> 60.3% from before the pandemic<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The total value of homes facing low risk is up 58.7%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total value of homes facing <\/span><b>high fire risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is up <\/span><b>67.8%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from before the pandemic. The total value of homes facing low fire risk is up 57.2%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78858\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/FINAL-CLIMATE-AGGREGATE-BAR-CHART-1024x710.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"555\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/FINAL-CLIMATE-AGGREGATE-BAR-CHART-1024x710.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/FINAL-CLIMATE-AGGREGATE-BAR-CHART-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/FINAL-CLIMATE-AGGREGATE-BAR-CHART-768x532.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/FINAL-CLIMATE-AGGREGATE-BAR-CHART-1536x1065.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/FINAL-CLIMATE-AGGREGATE-BAR-CHART.png 1731w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The value of the U.S. housing market skyrocketed during the pandemic as fierce homebuying demand\u2014driven by record-low mortgage rates\u2014caused buyers to bid up values. Some of the fiercest competition occurred in the Sun Belt, as the region\u2019s relatively affordable housing attracted hordes of homebuyers from more expensive states. But the Sun Belt is home to many places prone to flooding, extreme heat and\/or fires, including Florida, Arizona and Texas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home values in disaster-prone areas continue to rise in part because there\u2019s still <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">demand<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for homes in these areas. Some people relocate to disaster-prone areas because many of those areas are relatively affordable.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home values in both risky and non risky areas also continue to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-value-june-2024\/#:~:text=The%20total%20value%20of%20U.S,properties%20as%20of%20June%202024.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rise<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> because the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rate-lock-in-housing-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mortgage rate lock-in effect<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has exacerbated America\u2019s shortage of homes for sale, putting upward pressure on values.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Methodology<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\nThis analysis estimated current (June 2024) home values using the<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/redfin-estimate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Estimate, <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MLS <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">d<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ata and public records. The Redfin Estimate covers roughly 93 million single-family homes, condos, townhouses and 2-4 unit multifamily properties, and is available in most but not all parts of the U.S. Historical values were imputed using public records and MLS data on price per square foot trends by zip code (or city, county or state when zip-code data was insufficient). Both existing homes and new-construction homes are included in this dataset, which dates back to the year 2000. Homes are not added to the dataset until they are first built or sold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate risk data for fire, flood and heat comes from<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/riskfactor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> which assigns six different climate-risk categories to properties across the U.S.\u2014minimal, minor, moderate, major, severe and extreme. For this report, a \u201chigh-risk\u201d property is one that falls into the major, severe or extreme category for a climate risk. A \u201clow-risk\u201d property is one that faces minimal, minor, or moderate climate risk. The climate risk scores are based on a property\u2019s current risk as well as how that risk is expected to grow over the next 30 years.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across three major climate categories\u2014heat, fire and flood\u2014gained value faster than high-risk homes. That may be a sign Americans are growing more responsive to natural disasters. Still, high-risk homes are much more valuable than they were before the pandemic. Homes facing low risk from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":78859,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,43],"tags":[565,630,40,20,623],"coauthors":[125,660],"class_list":["post-78857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-housing-equality-policy","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-environmental","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Low-Climate-Risk Homes Are Gaining Value Faster Than High-Risk Homes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across three categories\u2014heat, fire and flood\u2014gained value faster than high-risk homes.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-values-climate-risk-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Homes With Low Natural Disaster Risk Are Rising in Value Faster Than Homes With High Risk for the First Time in Over a Decade\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across three categories\u2014heat, fire and flood\u2014gained value faster than high-risk homes.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-values-climate-risk-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Redfin Real Estate News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin\" \/>\n<meta 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