{"id":78888,"date":"2024-11-21T10:01:41","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T18:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78888"},"modified":"2024-11-21T10:01:41","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T18:01:41","slug":"impact-immigration-policy-housing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/impact-immigration-policy-housing\/","title":{"rendered":"The Potential Impact of Immigration Policies on Housing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s incoming administration plans to \u201cseal the border\u201d and deport millions of undocumented migrants from the United States, starting in 2025. The housing market relies on immigrants as part of the construction labor force and could be impacted by the deportations, depending on the size and scale of the operation.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Immigrants make up around <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/immigrationforum.org\/article\/immigrant-construction-workers-in-the-united-states\/#:~:text=Roughly%2030%20percent%20of%20workers,are%20immigrants%20is%2040%20percent.\"><b>30%<\/b><\/a><b> of the construction labor force, so restricting immigration will make housing more costly to build.<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The recent immigration surge under President Joe Biden has been a key part of the labor market\u2019s surprising <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/new-immigration-estimates-help-make-sense-of-the-pace-of-employment\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">resilience<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">in the face of the Fed\u2019s aggressive rate hikes. Border crossings are already on the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/16\/us\/politics\/biden-border-immigration.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but further declines under Trump\u2019s new administration will mean less labor supply, a weaker labor market, and less economic growth. Goldman Sachs <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/pdfs\/insights\/goldman-sachs-research\/post-election-economic-policies\/TOMPostElectionEconomicPolicies.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">forecasts<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that net immigration will slow to about 750,000 per year, due to the Republican sweep of congress. That\u2019s down from the roughly 1 million per year average from 2017 to 2019 and down dramatically from the peak of around 3 million reached in 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Critically for housing, plans to deport undocumented migrants\u2014who make up an estimated <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/11\/19\/undocumented-workers-immigration-deportation-trump\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of the construction work force\u2014will lead to much less labor supply for the industry. That means there will be less residential construction, which will put a cap on supply growth and potentially push up home prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Recent immigrants are also unlikely to account for much housing demand, so limiting immigration will not help to reduce demand by much.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The initial impact on housing demand will be minimal, as recent immigrants tend to produce little housing demand because they are largely housed in public housing, or with family and friends. In the medium to long term, however, more immigrants does mean more housing demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The immigration surge under Biden means there may be more housing demand in the medium term, but less immigration under the Trump presidency will bring down housing demand a bit in the future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Trump has promised to use a range of other policies to make housing more affordable, which could counteract some of the impact from his immigration policies.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> These are likely to include lowering taxes, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/trump-presidency-signals-new-regulatory-era-for-mortgages\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">loosening lending standards<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, cutting the red tape builders face to construct new homes and opening up federal land for housing development.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s incoming administration plans to \u201cseal the border\u201d and deport millions of undocumented migrants from the United States, starting in 2025. The housing market relies on immigrants as part of the construction labor force and could be impacted by the deportations, depending on the size and scale of the operation. Immigrants make up [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":78889,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632,51],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-78888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","category-policy","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Potential Impact of Immigration Policy on Housing<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s incoming administration plans to \u201cseal the border\u201d and deport millions of undocumented migrants from the United States, starting in 2025. 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