{"id":78998,"date":"2024-12-16T05:30:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-16T13:30:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78998"},"modified":"2024-12-13T14:22:38","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T22:22:38","slug":"climate-risk-by-generation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-risk-by-generation\/","title":{"rendered":"Older Americans Are More Likely to Buy Disaster-Prone Homes Than Younger Americans"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>37% of home purchases made by people 65+ occur in counties with high risk of extreme heat, compared with 32% of purchases made by people under 35. The same trend holds true for flood and fire risk.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Nearly all homes (96%) face high heat risk in the counties where 65+ buyers take out the largest share of mortgages, compared with just 59% of homes in the counties where buyers under 35 take out the largest share.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to buy homes in places with significant climate risk. Over one-third (36.9%) of home purchases made by people 65 and older last year were in counties with high risk of extreme heat, compared with less than one-third (32.3%) of home purchases made by people under 35.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We see the same trend for flood and fire risk; 13.3% of purchases made by people 65+ were in counties with high risk of flooding, compared with 9.8% of purchases by those under 35. And 3.7% of purchases made by people 65+ were in counties with high fire risk, compared with 2.6% of purchases by people under 35.<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"6\"><b>Share of home purchases, by age, made in counties at high risk of extreme heat, flood, and\/or fire: 2023<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>&lt;35<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>35-44<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>45-54<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>55-64<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>65+<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Extreme heat<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">32.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">35.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">36.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">37.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">36.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Flood<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Fire<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Two or more of the above<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is based on a Redfin analysis of climate risk scores from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/firststreet.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.consumerfinance.gov\/data-research\/hmda\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HMDA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) data covering mortgage originations for primary homes<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We define a high-risk county as one that ranks in the top 10% when it comes to the share of homes facing high fire or flood risk, and the top 33% for heat risk. Climate risk scores are based on a property\u2019s current risk as well as how that risk is expected to grow over the next 30 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>There are a few reasons older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to buy homes in risky areas:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many of America\u2019s retirement hotspots are risky for the same reason they\u2019re desirable: They\u2019re exposed to the <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/08\/05\/health\/heat-health-seniors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hot sun<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and\/or the coast. <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Think Arizona, which is prone to extreme heat and drought, and Florida, which is prone to hurricanes and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aarp.org\/home-family\/your-home\/info-2024\/washed-away.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rising sea levels<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Florida is a top retirement destination in part because it <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/states.aarp.org\/florida\/state-taxes-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">doesn\u2019t<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> tax retirement income. But that benefit is beginning to be offset by a surge in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-insurance-survey-report-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">insurance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> costs and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/hoa-fees-surge-florida-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HOA fees<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> caused by intensifying natural disasters, along with soaring <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/property-tax-homebuyer-increase-florida\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">property taxes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Young Americans often gravitate toward major urban job centers<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014like Boston, Chicago and Minneapolis\u2014many of which face lower climate risk than retirement hotspots in places like Florida and Arizona. Though it\u2019s worth noting that remote work and the growth of Sun Belt metros has upended this dynamic somewhat.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Older Americans are less likely than younger Americans to factor climate change into their decisions about where to live. <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over half (56%) of millennials and exactly half (50%) of Gen Zers say climate change affects where they choose to live, compared with less than one-third (31%) of baby boomers, according to a recent survey commissioned by Redfin. That may be because younger people will have to deal with the consequences of climate change for longer, and because climate change is a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/science\/2021\/05\/26\/gen-z-millennials-stand-out-for-climate-change-activism-social-media-engagement-with-issue\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">major topic<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in young social circles.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78999\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/FINAL-SURVEY-CHART-1024x712.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"556\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/FINAL-SURVEY-CHART-1024x712.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/FINAL-SURVEY-CHART-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/FINAL-SURVEY-CHART-768x534.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/FINAL-SURVEY-CHART-1536x1068.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/FINAL-SURVEY-CHART.png 1726w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cRetirees understand the risks of moving to Florida, but many believe the pros still outweigh the cons,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/rafael-corrales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rafael Corrales<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> real estate agent in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/11458\/FL\/Miami\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cWhen I explain to buyers that they can get more bang for their buck and lower flood risk a little further inland, they often tell me, \u2018Rafael, we came to Florida for the waterfront views.\u2019&#8221;\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Corrales said that many homebuyers are now asking sellers how much they pay for insurance and, if it\u2019s a good rate, requesting that the sellers pass along their insurance broker\u2019s contact information. This gives buyers leverage when they\u2019re negotiating with other insurers. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Buyers are also considering how much they&#8217;ll have to pay for insurance when writing offers<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One hypothesis we had was that disaster-prone areas skew older because:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many young people, who tend to have less wealth than older generations, move to relatively affordable parts of the country, which often have lower climate risk.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Older people tend to have <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.empower.com\/the-currency\/life\/average-net-worth-by-age\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> wealth, meaning that moving to a high-risk area isn\u2019t as big of a financial gamble.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But that doesn\u2019t seem to be the case. We broke the findings down by income level, and found that older people of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">all<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> income levels\u2014not just those who are affluent\u2014are generally more likely to move to risky areas than younger people.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Nearly 100% of Homes Face High Heat Risk in Places Where Buyers Skew Older, Compared With 59% of Homes Where Buyers Skew Younger<\/h3>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\nIn section one, we focused on how older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to buy homes in high-risk areas. This section conveys that idea in a different way\u2014by looking at the <\/span><\/i><b><i>share of homes <\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">facing high risk in the places each age group is most likely to buy. Specifically, we identified the 25 counties where each age group makes up the largest share of mortgage originations.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-PWMdQ\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Where Different Age Groups Are Buying Homes\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/PWMdQ\/21\/\" width=\"1000\" height=\"741\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Map\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly all homes (96.2%) face high heat risk in the counties where 65+ buyers took out the largest share of mortgages last year, on average. That compares 59.2% of homes in the counties where buyers under 35 took out the largest share of mortgages.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This trend also holds true for flood and fire risk. In the counties where 65+ buyers took out the largest share of mortgages, 24.6% of homes face high flood risk and 35.7% face high fire risk, on average. In the counties where buyers under 35 took out the largest share, 16% of homes face high flood risk and 19% face high fire risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Methodology<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\nThis is according to a Redfin analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data and First Street climate risk data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HMDA data covers purchases of primary homes. It does not cover purchases of investment properties or second homes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate risk data for fire, flood and heat comes from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/riskfactor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which assigns six different climate-risk categories to properties across the U.S.\u2014minimal, minor, moderate, major, severe and extreme. For this report, a \u201chigh-risk\u201d property is one that falls into the major, severe or extreme category for a climate risk. The climate risk scores are based on a property\u2019s current risk as well as how that risk is expected to grow over the next 30 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We define high-risk counties as counties in the contiguous U.S. that rank in the top 10% for flood and fire risk and roughly the top 33% for heat risk, as measured by the share of residential properties at high risk. For fire, this means counties with 84.3%-99.9% of homes facing high risk are counted as high-risk counties. For flood, it means counties with 23.6%-99.3% of homes facing high risk are high-risk counties. For heat risk, high-risk counties are those where 100% of properties face high risk.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>37% of home purchases made by people 65+ occur in counties with high risk of extreme heat, compared with 32% of purchases made by people under 35. The same trend holds true for flood and fire risk. Nearly all homes (96%) face high heat risk in the counties where 65+ buyers take out the largest [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":74991,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,43],"tags":[565,630,40,20,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[125,660],"class_list":["post-78998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-housing-equality-policy","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-environmental","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Older Americans Are More Likely to Buy Disaster-Prone Homes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"96% of homes face high heat risk in counties where 65+ buyers take out the largest share of mortgages vs 59% in counties where buyers under 35 take 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