{"id":79107,"date":"2025-01-15T07:44:54","date_gmt":"2025-01-15T15:44:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79107"},"modified":"2025-01-15T07:44:54","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T15:44:54","slug":"december-cpi-mortgage-rates-down-slightly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/december-cpi-mortgage-rates-down-slightly\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Will Fall Slightly After Today\u2019s CPI Report Shows Softer-Than-Expected Core Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

The December CPI report should reverse the jump in mortgage rates we saw last week after a strong jobs report, but political uncertainty and economic volatility will keep rates around 7% for the foreseeable future.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The <\/span>latest<\/span><\/a> Consumer Price Index reading shows softer-than-expected <\/span>core inflation <\/span><\/a>for December.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takeaway:<\/b> This will reverse the jump in mortgage rates <\/span>resulting from<\/span><\/a> last Friday\u2019s jobs report. The Fed will still hold the Fed funds rates steady for the next few meetings, as inflationary concerns around trade and fiscal policy continue.<\/span><\/p>\n

The numbers: <\/b>Core inflation increased by 0.23% from a month ago in December and 3.2% from a year ago, slightly less than the 0.26% and 3.3% expected by economists. While headline inflation, which adds the volatile food and energy categories to core inflation, increased slightly more than expected, the Fed prefers to focus on <\/span>core inflation<\/b>. Within core inflation, airfares and used cars came in high, but those are volatile categories and the spike is not expected to last. Notably, shelter inflation (housing), which makes up 42% of core CPI, continued its slow trend downward. Shelter inflation is 4.7% higher than a year ago, the smallest increase since March 2022. Importantly, shelter inflation is backwards looking, as most people are not moving most months. Forward-looking <\/span>market rent measures<\/span><\/a> remain flat, indicating no inflationary pressure on the horizon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s data boosts hopes of another Fed rate cut by early Q2<\/b>. But there is no chance of a cut in the January meeting and little chance at the March one.<\/span> The Fed has clearly signaled that they intend to slow the pace of rate cuts after <\/span>delivering<\/span><\/a> 100 bps in cuts in the last quarter of 2024. With recent economic data skewing strong, futures markets had moved to expect at most one 25 bps cut in 2025, but today\u2019s data allows markets to hope for two with the first coming in May or June.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, there are a few wildcards on the horizon. One, rates jumped in the fall, mostly because of inflationary concerns around increased tariffs and government spending under the new administration. Much uncertainty remains around those policies. Two, the first quarter of the year is mired in statistical quirks that could complicate the Fed\u2019s ability to understand economic conditions. Significant revisions are expected with the February 7 jobs report as the BLS benchmarks their jobs data once a year. Three, economic data has been unusually strong in the first quarter post-pandemic because of statistical issues with adjusting for normal seasonal variation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates will see some relief today, but they are likely to remain around 7%. <\/b>Policies from the incoming administration are driving <\/span>mortgage rates<\/span><\/a> right now as much as economic conditions. Mortgage rates are likely to remain high and volatile in this environment.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The December CPI report should reverse the jump in mortgage rates we saw last week after a strong jobs report, but political uncertainty and economic volatility will keep rates around 7% for the foreseeable future.\u00a0 The latest Consumer Price Index reading shows softer-than-expected core inflation for December. Takeaway: This will reverse the jump in mortgage […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":79108,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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