{"id":79111,"date":"2025-01-16T05:00:45","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T13:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79111"},"modified":"2025-01-15T17:14:16","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T01:14:16","slug":"housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Decline Due to High Housing Costs, California Wildfires and Frigid Weather in Other Parts of U.S."},"content":{"rendered":"

Pending sales posted their biggest decline in over a year this week, as did new listings. But mortgage-purchase applications are on the rise, and mortgage rates are coming down.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Home tours and pending sales are falling as devastating <\/span>wildfires<\/span><\/a> burn in Southern California, <\/span>extreme cold<\/span><\/a> and snow hit the Northeast, Midwest and South, and housing costs rise across the country.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013a seasonally adjusted <\/span>measure of tours and requests for other buying services from Redfin agents\u2013is down 11% month over month to its lowest level since August. Pending home sales fell 8.4% year over year during the four weeks ending January 12, the biggest decline since October 2023. Prospective sellers are also sitting on the sidelines, with new listings posting their biggest annual decline since September 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But there are some pieces of encouraging news for homebuyers and the housing market. Mortgage rates are <\/span>falling<\/span><\/a> after the latest CPI report showed softer-than-expected core inflation, perhaps bringing some relief to hopeful buyers. And mortgage-purchase applications <\/span>jumped<\/span><\/a> this week to their highest level in nearly a year, signaling that pending sales may improve in the weeks to come. It\u2019s also worth noting that it\u2019s too early in the new year to determine how 2025\u2019s housing market will shape up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, high housing costs are one reason pending sales are declining. Many would-be buyers are priced out, with the median housing payment nationwide sitting at its highest level in over two months. Home sale prices are up 5.8% year over year, and daily average mortgage rates hit their <\/span>highest level<\/span><\/a> since May this week after a <\/span>surprisingly strong<\/span><\/a> jobs report before the CPI report reversed the course of rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Los Angeles wildfires push down sales, listings, but agents report people displaced from homes are scrambling to find housing <\/b><\/h3>\n

The wildfires are simultaneously pushing down homebuying demand and listings in the Los Angeles metro, and driving up buying and rental demand from the pocket of people who have been displaced from their homes. During the four weeks ending January 12, Los Angeles pending sales fell 4% year over year and new listings fell 2.5%. Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao said sales and listings in Los Angeles would have posted smaller declines if not for the fires, and that we will likely see bigger declines in the coming weeks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But local real estate agents are reporting a surge in demand\u2013especially for rentals\u2013from people who have been directly impacted by wildfire damage. Many of the thousands of Los Angeles residents who have lost their homes are <\/span>competing<\/span><\/a> for rentals and listings in the area.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a feeling of overwhelming sadness and stress about the destruction we\u2019re seeing in so many neighborhoods,\u201d said <\/span>Susan Brown<\/span><\/a>, a Redfin Premier agent in the Los Angeles area. \u201cPart of that is because so many people now have to find new homes, and we\u2019re seeing a chaotic ripple effect in the market. I\u2019ve personally had three people who lost their homes reach out to me to start searching, and we all have an influx of clients looking for rental properties. Many Redfin agents are pivoting to helping people find rentals as soon as possible. Because rentals are going so fast, my advice for people searching for housing is to directly reach out to a real estate agent for help.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Cold, snow slowing housing market in the Northeast, Midwest<\/h3>\n

In much of the rest of the country, frigid temperatures and snow are keeping house hunters at home, and delaying homeowners from listing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For Redfin economists\u2019 takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin\u2019s \u201c<\/span><\/i>From Our Economists<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u201d page.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n7.13% (Jan. 15)<\/span><\/td>\nRates hit 7.26% this week, the highest level since May, then declined slightly<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 6.88%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n6.93% (week ending Jan. 9)<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level since July\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 6.66%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 27%\u00a0 from 1 week earlier (as of week ending Jan. 10 )<\/span><\/td>\nDown 2%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 11%\u00a0 from a month earlier to lowest level since August<\/span><\/p>\n

(as of week ending Jan. 12)<\/span><\/td>\n

Up 6%<\/span><\/td>\nRedfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 35% from a month earlier (as of Jan. 13)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 4%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Jan. 12, 2025<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and are based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending Jan. 12, 2025<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$379,609<\/span><\/td>\n5.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$383,473<\/span><\/td>\n4.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,586 at a 6.93% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n7.5%<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level since October<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n49,136<\/span><\/td>\n-8.4%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest decline since October 2023<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n47,890<\/span><\/td>\n-3.6%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest decline since September 2023<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n873,497<\/span><\/td>\n9.8%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest increase in nearly a year<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n4.6<\/span><\/td>\n+0.3 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n22%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n50<\/span><\/td>\n+6 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n21.7%<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 23%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n98.2%<\/span><\/td>\nEssentially unchanged<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Jan. 12, 2025<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/th>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/th>\n\n

Notes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

Median sale price<\/b><\/th>\nMilwaukee (20.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cleveland (14.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Warren, MI (13.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Pittsburgh (12.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Newark, NJ (12.9%)<\/span><\/th>\n

Austin, TX (-4.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Francisco (-3.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-0.5%)<\/span><\/th>\n

\n

Declined in 3 metros<\/span><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n

Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nAnaheim, CA (1.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (0.6%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Newark, NJ (-18.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New York (-17.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Detroit (-16.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Minneapolis (-16.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nashville, TN (-16.2%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 2 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nSan Jose, CA (13.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (12%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (9.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Jacksonville, FL (8.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (6.5%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Newark, NJ (-27%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Detroit (-22.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Austin, TX (-20.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Warren, MI (-20.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio (-18.7%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 17 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pending sales posted their biggest decline in over a year this week, as did new listings. But mortgage-purchase applications are on the rise, and mortgage rates are coming down.\u00a0 Home tours and pending sales are falling as devastating wildfires burn in Southern California, extreme cold and snow hit the Northeast, Midwest and South, and housing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":79124,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,615],"tags":[623,655,654],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-79111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","category-weekly-market-update","tag-national","tag-weekly-market-tracker","tag-weekly-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPending Home Sales Decline Due to High Housing Costs, California Wildfires and Frigid Weather in Other Parts of U.S.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pending sales posted their biggest decline in over a year this week, as did new listings. But mortgage-purchase applications are on the rise, and mortgage rates are coming down.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-decline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pending Home Sales Decline Due to High Housing Costs, California Wildfires and Frigid Weather in Other Parts of U.S.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pending sales posted their biggest decline in over a year this week, as did new listings. 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