{"id":79257,"date":"2025-02-06T05:30:54","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T13:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79257"},"modified":"2025-02-05T14:57:14","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T22:57:14","slug":"mortgage-rate-lock-in-effect-eases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rate-lock-in-effect-eases\/","title":{"rendered":"17% of Homeowners With Mortgages Have an Interest Rate of at Least 6%, the Highest Share in Nearly a Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Most homeowners still have a mortgage rate far below today\u2019s levels, which is prompting many to stay put.\u00a0<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>But this lock-in effect is starting to ease because Americans are growing accustomed to elevated rates, and for many, it\u2019s not realistic to stay put forever. That\u2019s boosting listings and easing the housing shortage.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nationwide, 17.2% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate greater than or equal to 6%, the highest share since 2016. That\u2019s up nearly five percentage points from 12.3% in the third quarter of 2023. If this growth rate were to continue, which is feasible, the share of homeowners with a rate of at least 6% would nearly double in the next three years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is according to a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency\u2019s National Mortgage Database through the third quarter of 2024, the most recent period for which data is available.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, 82.8% of homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 6%. That means even more have a rate below the current (Jan. 30) weekly average of<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.95%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, prompting many to stay put instead of selling and buying another home at a higher rate\u2014a phenomenon called the \u201clock-in effect.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But this lock-in effect has been easing; in the third quarter of 2023, for example, 87.7% of mortgaged homeowners had a rate below 6%. And in mid-2022, the share sat at a record 92.7%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-fndVf\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"83% of Mortgage Holders Have an Interest Rate Below 6%\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/fndVf\/4\/\" width=\"600\" height=\"462\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Stacked Columns\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America has been grappling with a severe housing shortage, in part because the lock-in effect has disincentivized people from putting their homes up for sale. Mortgage rates are now more than double the 2.65% record low hit during the pandemic. But for most people, it\u2019s not realistic to stay put forever, which is why the lock-in effect is easing. This is slowly alleviating the housing shortage; new listings and active listings are both <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-home-sales-slow-costs-high\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">higher<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than they were a year ago. Though it\u2019s worth noting that one reason supply is on the rise is that many homes are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/unsold-housing-inventory-november-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">sitting<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on the market, so stale listings are piling up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin agents report that many people are moving because a major life event like a job change or divorce has given them no other choice. There are a few other reasons the lock-in effect is easing. One, many Americans are growing accustomed to the idea that rates are unlikely to fall to pandemic lows anytime soon. Two, the pandemic surge in home values means many homeowners have enough equity to justify selling and taking on a higher rate\u2014especially if they\u2019re downsizing or moving somewhere more affordable. And finally, a rising share of Americans are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fastcompany.com\/91139348\/housing-market-economy-supported-by-record-number-mortgage-free-homeowners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mortgage-free<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which means they\u2019re not locked into any rate at all.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Everyone who bought a home in the last two years did so at a time when the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">average<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> weekly mortgage rate was above 6%, which is why the share of homeowners with rates below 6% has declined.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe rate-lock effect is letting up a bit here in Seattle,\u201d said local <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> real estate agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/david-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">David Palmer<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cHomeowners hate to give up their 2-3% mortgage rate, but life happens and people have to move.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Here\u2019s a breakdown of where today\u2019s homeowners fall on the mortgage-rate spectrum:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 82.8% of mortgaged U.S. homeowners have a rate below 6%, down from a record 92.7% in Q2 2022 and the lowest share since the Q4 2016.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 5%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 73.3% have a rate below 5%, down from a record 85.6% in Q1 2022 and the lowest share since Q3 2017.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 4%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 55.2% have a rate below 4%, down from a record 65.1% in Q1 2022 and the lowest share since Q4 2020.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 3%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 21.3% have a rate below 3%, down from a record 24.6% in Q1 2022 and the lowest share since Q2 2021.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>And another way to look at the data:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Greater than or equal to 6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 17.2% of mortgaged homeowners have a rate greater than or equal to 6%, the highest share since Q4 2016.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>5%-5.99%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 9.5% have a rate of 5%-5.99%, the lowest share since Q4 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>4%-4.99%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 18.1% have a rate of 4%-4.99%, the lowest share in records dating back to 2013.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>3%-3.99%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 33.9% have a rate of 3%-3.99%, the lowest share since Q4 2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 3%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 21.3% have a rate below 3%, the lowest share since Q2 2021.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Click <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-to-remain-steady-after-fed-pauses-cuts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to read our economists\u2019 latest outlook for mortgage rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Methodology<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of data from the FHFA\u2019s<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhfa.gov\/DataTools\/Downloads\/Pages\/National-Mortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">National Mortgage Database<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is a nationally representative 5% sample of all first-lien, closed-end purchased or refinanced residential mortgages in the U.S. The third quarter of 2024 is the most recent period for which data on outstanding mortgages is available. We assume each loan represents a homeowner with a mortgage, though some homeowners may have multiple loans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the prevailing mortgage rate for homebuyers often changes quickly, rates for existing homeowners don\u2019t typically change significantly from quarter to quarter, as most buyers take out 30-year mortgages. Roughly 60% of U.S. homeowners have an outstanding mortgage.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most homeowners still have a mortgage rate far below today\u2019s levels, which is prompting many to stay put.\u00a0 But this lock-in effect is starting to ease because Americans are growing accustomed to elevated rates, and for many, it\u2019s not realistic to stay put forever. That\u2019s boosting listings and easing the housing shortage. Nationwide, 17.2% of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":79258,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,8],"tags":[20,623],"coauthors":[125],"class_list":["post-79257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-affordability","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Share of People With a Mortgage Rate of at Least 6% Is Highest Since 2016<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Most homeowners have a mortgage rate far below today\u2019s levels, prompting many to stay put, but this lock-in effect is starting to ease.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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