{"id":79282,"date":"2025-02-12T09:56:28","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T17:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79282"},"modified":"2025-02-12T10:05:40","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T18:05:40","slug":"volatile-hotel-prices-rents-january-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/volatile-hotel-prices-rents-january-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatile Hotel Prices\u2014Not Rents\u2014Pushed January Inflation Numbers Higher"},"content":{"rendered":"

January\u2019s<\/span><\/i> inflation report <\/span><\/i><\/a>came in <\/span><\/i>hotter<\/span><\/i><\/a> than expected, with the shelter category increasing 0.4%\u2014up from 0.3% in recent months.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

While the overall shelter inflation component of CPI did tick up to a monthly increase of 0.4% from 0.3%, the increase was due to \u201clodging away from home\u201d\u2014meaning hotel prices\u2014which jumped to 1.4%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The \u201clodging away from home\u201d number is volatile: In the past three months it has ranged between -2.5% and January\u2019s 1.4%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Despite the volatility, the \u201clodging away from home\u201d component makes up only 3.6% of the overall shelter category and 1.292% of the total CPI figure.<\/span><\/p>\n

The more important rent of primary residence and owners\u2019 equivalent rent categories\u2014which include the rent that renters pay and homeowners could receive if they rented out their home instead of living in it\u2014increased 0.3%, which is the same as increases in recent months.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is also true that the rent measures in CPI remain elevated relative to market rent, which Redfin <\/span>reports<\/span><\/a> has been flat for two years. And that lag accounts for why inflation remains above the Fed\u2019s target. But remember that the Fed is focused on a different metric of inflation, core PCE, for which shelter is only 16% of the total compared to 42% of the total for core CPI. And also remember that the Fed is carefully watching market rents, because they\u2019re well aware of the lag.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, while the hotel prices in shelter inflation drove much of the surprising inflation data today, a lot of it also came from categories like car insurance and used cars, which are volatile and subject to start-of-year price resets.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

January\u2019s inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the shelter category increasing 0.4%\u2014up from 0.3% in recent months.\u00a0\u00a0 While the overall shelter inflation component of CPI did tick up to a monthly increase of 0.4% from 0.3%, the increase was due to \u201clodging away from home\u201d\u2014meaning hotel prices\u2014which jumped to 1.4%.\u00a0\u00a0 The \u201clodging away […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":79284,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79282\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79282"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=79282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}