{"id":79417,"date":"2025-03-07T07:34:55","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T15:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79417"},"modified":"2025-03-07T07:34:55","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T15:34:55","slug":"mortgage-rates-may-tick-down-after-soft-february-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-may-tick-down-after-soft-february-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates May Tick Down After Soft February Jobs Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A mildly disappointing February <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">jobs report <\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">may lead to a small tick down on mortgage rates as investors price in expectations for future labor market weakness.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>A weakening, but not-yet-weak labor market added 151,000 jobs in February (vs. 159,000 expected) as the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.1%. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Job creation in the first two months of 2025 is still in healthy territory, but has come in much lower than the last two months of 2024. The higher unemployment rate may mostly be a correction after last month\u2019s unexpected\u2014and perhaps questionable\u2014decline to 4.0%. Importantly, the U-6 unemployment rate, which adds those marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time, who would rather work full-time, to the headline unemployment rate, jumped to 8.0%, the highest level since October 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-79418\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2-1024x636.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"636\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2-1024x636.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2-768x477.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2-1536x954.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2.png 1630w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>More importantly, the outlook for the labor market has deteriorated meaningfully over the past few weeks as the impact of DOGE cuts, the immigration crackdown, and the tariff rollercoaster are expected to hit job creation. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Federal government employment only declined by 10,000 in February\u2019s data, but this is the calm before the storm. More extensive cuts are expected to hit the data in the coming months. In addition, the change in immigration policy will also negatively impact job creation as labor supply shrinks. And businesses are unlikely to invest in expanding payrolls when tariff policy is so unpredictable. The cooling in the labor market over the past two years has been a welcome adjustment from too tight to more sustainable, but further deterioration at this point would not be welcome.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Mortgage rates may tick down very slightly today, but will mostly remain unchanged. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bond market<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">investors are now hoping for as many as three rate cuts from the Fed in the second half of this year as the economic outlook has worsened, but uncertainty is at all time highs. The White House\u2019s ever-changing stance on tariffs, the size of the federal government, tax policy, and immigration will continue to drive the outlook on rates.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A mildly disappointing February jobs report may lead to a small tick down on mortgage rates as investors price in expectations for future labor market weakness. A weakening, but not-yet-weak labor market added 151,000 jobs in February (vs. 159,000 expected) as the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.1%. Job creation in the first two months [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":79419,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-79417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates May Tick Down After Soft February Jobs Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-may-tick-down-after-soft-february-jobs-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mortgage Rates May Tick Down After Soft February Jobs Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A mildly disappointing February jobs report may lead to a small tick down on mortgage rates as investors price in expectations for future labor market weakness. A weakening, but not-yet-weak labor market added 151,000 jobs in February (vs. 159,000 expected) as the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.1%. 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Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79417"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79420,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79417\/revisions\/79420"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79417"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=79417"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=79417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}