{"id":79592,"date":"2025-04-10T07:44:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T14:44:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79592"},"modified":"2025-04-10T07:53:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T14:53:53","slug":"inflation-report-cpi-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/inflation-report-cpi-march\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Unlikely to Benefit from Cooling Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Core CPI was much lower than expected in <\/span><\/i>March<\/span><\/i><\/a>, largely because of deterioration in travel-related costs. However, mortgage rates won\u2019t drop much today because tariffs are still very high and will boost inflation in months to come.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Core inflation was just 0.06% in March, much lower than the 0.24% expected, because of significant deflation in travel-related categories.<\/b> Overall inflation (which adds the volatile food and energy categories) was actually negative because of a large drop in energy prices. Within core inflation categories, airfares were down 5.3% from a month ago and hotel prices were down 4.3%. Shelter seemingly cooled to 0.2% from a month ago, but it was actually all in \u201clodging away from home.\u201d Rent of primary residence actually stayed flat at 0.3% month over month and owners equivalent rent (what homeowners would need to pay to rent their home) actually ticked up to 0.4% month over month from 0.3% previously. The overall picture indicates that foreign travel demand has really tanked, consistent with the narrative from <\/span>Delta airlines<\/span><\/a> on their recent earnings call.<\/span><\/p>\n

The March report does not show tariff-related impacts, but we still expect higher inflation in coming months. That\u2019s because yesterday\u2019s <\/b>90-day pause<\/b><\/a> on most reciprocal tariffs still leaves the average tariff rate higher than it was on April 2, when President Trump announced the tariffs.<\/b> In the last few days, the US has increased tariffs on China so much that they overwhelm the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for everyone else, because China is the US\u2019 third largest trading partner. Furthermore, the other countries still face tariffs of 10%, which would have been a shockingly high number before April 2. Not to mention the previously implemented tariffs on Canada and Mexico on non-USMCA covered goods, automobiles and car parts, steel and aluminum, and the sector-specific tariffs to come (e.g. pharmaceuticals). As a result, the trade-weighted average tariff rate still exceeds 20% and is still the highest in about a century. Of course, yesterday\u2019s pause likely indicates that the 125% tariffs on China will gradually be walked back, but that is currently uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the tariff story still playing out, the Fed will be cautious about cutting and mortgage rates are unlikely to see much relief from today\u2019s inflation news. <\/b>In addition, any continued volatility in bond markets will keep mortgage spreads high, meaning mortgage rates stay higher relative to the 10 year treasury yields they normally follow.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Core CPI was much lower than expected in March, largely because of deterioration in travel-related costs. However, mortgage rates won\u2019t drop much today because tariffs are still very high and will boost inflation in months to come. Core inflation was just 0.06% in March, much lower than the 0.24% expected, because of significant deflation in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":79593,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-79592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMortgage Rates Unlikely to Benefit from Cooling Inflation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Core CPI was much lower than expected in March, largely because of deterioration in travel-related costs. 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