{"id":79813,"date":"2025-05-13T07:21:45","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T14:21:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79813"},"modified":"2025-05-13T07:21:45","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T14:21:45","slug":"inflation-report-cpi-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/inflation-report-cpi-april\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates for Foreseeable Future After Mild April Inflation Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates will remain unchanged after April <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.htm\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">inflation data<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> came in as expected. Elevated tariff rates will keep Fed rate cuts on pause for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>The BLS reported that core prices rose 0.24% from March to April and are up 2.8% from a year ago, largely in line with expectations of a 0.26% increase.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China\u2014as well as autos, steel, and aluminum\u2014predated these data, but the April 2 (\u201cLiberation Day\u201d) tariffs were coincident. As such, there are only hints of the tariff impact in this report. Airfares were once again weak, falling 2.8% from a month ago and hotel prices fell 0.2%, reflecting an ongoing decline in foreign tourism. However, goods prices actually fell with apparel, declining 0.2% from a month ago, indicating no immediate impact from tariffs. This makes sense as new <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/econres\/notes\/feds-notes\/detecting-tariff-effects-on-consumer-prices-in-real-time-20250509.html?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">research<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from the Fed shows that the price impact hits about two months after tariff implementation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Given this week\u2019s reduction in tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, the Fed is now less likely to cut, as the recession odds have declined while inflation concerns remain. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yesterday\u2019s 90-day pause with China brought the average US tariff rate from about 23% to about 15%\u2014still significantly higher than 2.5% at the beginning of the year. The news signals new trade deals could emerge soon, but last week\u2019s UK deal suggests a 10% floor globally. With China likely to end up higher than other countries, that means the average tariff rate could fall more, but perhaps not much more. For the economy, all of that equates to slower economic growth and higher unemployment, but no formal recession. However, an increase in inflation still remains a threat. That means the Fed has little reason to cut this year, even as markets continue to expect two rate cuts in the fourth quarter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Mortgage rates will remain elevated near 7% for the foreseeable future barring another surprise on tariffs.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates will remain unchanged after April inflation data came in as expected. Elevated tariff rates will keep Fed rate cuts on pause for the foreseeable future. The BLS reported that core prices rose 0.24% from March to April and are up 2.8% from a year ago, largely in line with expectations of a 0.26% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":79814,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-79813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates for Foreseeable Future After Mild April CPI Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The BLS reported that core prices rose 0.24% from March to April and are up 2.8% from a year ago, largely in line with expectations of a 0.26% increase. Mortgage rates will remain elevated near 7% for the foreseeable future barring another surprise on tariffs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/inflation-report-cpi-april\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates for Foreseeable Future After Mild April Inflation Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The BLS reported that core prices rose 0.24% from March to April and are up 2.8% from a year ago, largely in line with expectations of a 0.26% increase. Mortgage rates will remain elevated near 7% for the foreseeable future barring another surprise on tariffs.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/inflation-report-cpi-april\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Redfin Real Estate News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-13T14:21:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/pexels-jakubzerdzicki-25589797-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1708\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chen Zhao\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chen Zhao\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Chen Zhao\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a0a62ede97b24e6f17c1cffb6ffdd574\"},\"headline\":\"Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates for Foreseeable Future After Mild April Inflation Report\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-13T14:21:45+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":328,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/pexels-jakubzerdzicki-25589797-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Economics\",\"national\"],\"articleSection\":[\"From Our Economists\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2025\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/\",\"name\":\"Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates for Foreseeable Future After Mild April CPI Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/inflation-report-cpi-april\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/pexels-jakubzerdzicki-25589797-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-13T14:21:45+00:00\",\"description\":\"The BLS reported that core prices rose 0.24% from March to April and are up 2.8% from a year ago, largely in line with expectations of a 0.26% increase. 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