{"id":79893,"date":"2025-05-22T05:29:35","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T12:29:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=79893"},"modified":"2025-05-21T14:37:22","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T21:37:22","slug":"home-price-forecast-decline-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-price-forecast-decline-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Forecast: U.S. Home Prices Will Dip 1% By the End of 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates are forecasted to stay elevated near 7%.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin economists expect the median U.S. home-sale price to fall flat in the third quarter, and fall 1% year over year by the fourth quarter. When it comes to mortgage rates, we expect them to remain elevated near 7% for the remainder of the year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-79895 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-35.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"922\" height=\"646\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-35.png 922w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-35-300x210.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-35-768x538.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 922px) 100vw, 922px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This marks a stark reversal from years of home-price increases. Aside from a brief period in 2023, home prices have been rising year over year since 2012 due to a prolonged seller\u2019s market.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Sale Prices Will Decline Because Inventory Is Rising While Sales Are Falling<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices are expected to decline nationwide because there are more home sellers than homebuyers in the market. Homebuying demand is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-sales-drop-economic-uncertainty\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">down<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, sales of existing homes fell 1.1% year over year in April to a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/existing-home-sales-six-month-low\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">six-month low<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and the typical home that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">did <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">sell took 40 days to do so\u2013five days longer than a year earlier. On the selling side, total inventory rose 16.7% year over year to its highest level in five years, and new listings rose 8.6%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The U.S. housing market has been lackluster since mortgage rates <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rose sharply<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> at the start of 2022, and has slowed further in the last several months due to widespread economic instability and stubbornly high housing costs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More homes for sale, combined with fewer people interested in buying them, is expected to push U.S. sale prices down in two key ways:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Discounts on list prices. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/buyers-market-february-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">buyer\u2019s market<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. That means homebuyers in many parts of the country are able to successfully <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-sale-price-vs-list-price-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">negotiate prices down<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, especially for fixer uppers and\/or homes that aren\u2019t located in desirable neighborhoods.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Lower list prices.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 The longer the market is slow, the more sellers will come to terms with the fact that they can\u2019t sell their homes for what they could have at the height of the market.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin agents advise buyers looking for a deal to target homes that have been on the market for more than a few weeks. Those offer a shot at negotiation: Buyers should submit offers for under list price and\/or ask for concessions, like mortgage-rate buydowns or money for repairs. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-seller-concessions-march-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly half<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of today\u2019s sellers are giving concessions, just shy of the highest level on record. Sellers should price their homes in line with the market from the start to avoid price drops. Some sellers may consider pricing slightly under comparable homes in the same neighborhood to entice buyers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cA lot of the people selling right now bought in 2021 or 2022, when home prices were near their height. Even though we advise them to list at today\u2019s market value, a lot of them decide to list high to recoup their money,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/corey-stambaugh\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Corey Stambaugh<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a Redfin Premier agent in North Carolina. \u201cBut those sellers face reality once their home has been sitting for a couple weeks without any offers. At that point, they\u2019re willing to seriously consider low offers and even throw in some concessions, because they\u2019d rather sell today than face the uncertainty of tomorrow.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Redfin economists expect the national median home price to decline 1%, prices will decline more in some metro areas and prices will likely continue rising in parts of the country where demand is holding up better, like the Midwest and the Northeast.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Buying a Home Will Become More Affordable Because Wages Are Expected to Rise While Prices Fall<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Homebuying affordability will improve a bit more than a small price decline and flat mortgage rates suggest. That\u2019s because while home prices are forecasted to come down by 1% year over year, incomes are expected to continue increasing at a rate of around <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/chcs\/wage-growth-tracker\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, for house hunters looking to buy soon, waiting until the end of the year for prices to fall slightly is unlikely to pay off. \u201cWe know there\u2019s room to negotiate right now, so that\u2019s the best way to take advantage of the changing market,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chen Zhao<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Redfin\u2019s head of economics research. \u201cAnd the sooner you buy, the sooner you start to build equity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Mortgage Rates Expected to Remain Around 6.8% Until the End of 2025<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We expect the weekly average mortgage rate to remain right around 6.8% through the rest of the year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-79896 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-36.png 616w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/unnamed-36-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zhao said mortgage rates are staying stubbornly high mainly because of two economic concerns: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/tariffs-volatile-mortgage-rates-construction\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tariffs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which drive up the price of goods and discourage the Fed from cutting rates, and the rising U.S. budget deficit, which has caused analysts to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/central-banking\/u-s-loses-last-triple-a-credit-rating-bfcbae5d?st=Erdz7i&amp;reflink=article_copyURL_share\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">downgrade<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the country\u2019s credit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the Trump administration recently <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/12\/business\/china-us-tariffs.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slashed its proposed tariffs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on China, they are still three times higher than at the beginning of the year and there are still high tariffs on goods from other countries. Additionally, the back-and-forth on the policy has exacerbated <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/13\/business\/trump-china-tariff-deal-uncertainty.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">economic uncertainty<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for both the Fed and American consumers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates are forecasted to stay elevated near 7%. Redfin economists expect the median U.S. home-sale price to fall flat in the third quarter, and fall 1% year over year by the fourth quarter. When it comes to mortgage rates, we expect them to remain elevated near 7% for the remainder of the year.\u00a0 This [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":79898,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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