{"id":81931,"date":"2025-08-25T11:49:27","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T18:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=81931"},"modified":"2025-08-25T11:51:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T18:51:54","slug":"weekly-economics-update-august-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-august-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Room for Mortgage Rates to Edge Lower if Jobs and Inflation Data is Weak"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><b>Last Week In A Nutshell<\/b><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A quiet week was capped by a surprisingly dovish <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/powell-jackson-hole-rates\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">speech<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from Fed Chair Powell, who set the stage for the Fed to restart rate cuts at their September 17 meeting, bringing rates down to end the week.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><b>This Week\u2019s Attractions<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming week looks to be very quiet on market-moving economic events as we eagerly await the next jobs report on September 5.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Fed:\u00a0<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">PCE inflation (Friday 8\/29)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Core PCE, the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to come in at 0.3% month over month and 2.9% year over year for July based on the CPI and PPI readings earlier this month, which feed into the PCE measure. That would show that inflation is higher than the Fed\u2019s target and increasing, but perhaps not as much feared three months after tariff announcements on April 2 (\u201cLiberation Day\u201d). PCE rarely surprises because the input data comes from the same sources as CPI and PPI.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Housing:<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New home sales (Monday 8\/25) <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8211; New single-family home sales declined by 0.6% from June to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 652,000 units in July (8.2 percent below July 2024). However, prior months were revised up significantly. Months of supply remained high at 9.2 months, 16.5% above July 2024. There is also a higher than typical 4.9 months of inventory currently under construction. The median sale price is down 5.9% from a year ago, mostly due to builders selling smaller homes.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Case Shiller Home Price Index for June (Tuesday 8\/26)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Based on <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-price-index-july-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin\u2019s Home Price Index<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which has reported prices through July, we expect that Case Shiller\u2019s index will show that home price growth is continuing to decline.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NAR Pending Sales Index (Thursday 8\/28)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Redfin\u2019s pending sales <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homes-sell-at-slowest-pace-in-decade\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">data<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for July was down about 1%, both month over month and year over year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><b>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Jackson Hole:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Chair Powell finally allowed that it may be time to \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/powell-jackson-hole-rates\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">adjust<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d the Fed\u2019s monetary policy stance after a weak August jobs report shifted the balance of risk from inflation to recession fears. Rates fell as investors predicted a higher likelihood for the Fed to resume cuts at their September 17 meeting. However, as of this morning, that rate cut is still only 86% priced in because there is still some chance for the next jobs and inflation reports to derail expectations. As such, there is room for rates to fall slightly more if the September data comes in weak, or to increase significantly if the data comes in strong.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Housing:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing starts and building permits<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Housing starts increased 5.2% in July with single-family starts increasing 2.8% to 939,000 (down 4.2% year-to-date) and multifamily starts increasing 9.9% to 489,000. Permits decreased 2.8% to 1.35m units in July. Single-family permits increased 0.5% and multifamily permits decreased 8.2%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NAR existing home sales<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; NAR EHS increased 2.0% to an annualized rate of 4.01m (0.8% higher than a year ago). Interestingly, the non-seasonally adjusted rate actually fell 0.8% from a month ago and is 0.5% lower than a year ago. Overall, sales remain at a similarly sluggish rate as what we\u2019ve seen over the last three years.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><b>Diving a Little Deeper:<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here are a few highlights from Redfin housing market reports last week:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homes-sell-at-slowest-pace-in-decade\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">July market tracker<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211;<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home that went under contract in July sat on the market for 43 days\u2014the longest July span since 2015\u2014as pending sales hit a two-year low.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some sellers are reacting by, well, not selling; active listings posted the largest monthly drop since 2023.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices rose 1.4% year over year, a faster rate of growth than we\u2019ve seen in recent months, likely due to shrinking supply. The good news for buyers is mortgage rates have fallen.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-price-index-july-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Home Price Index<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. home prices fell 0.1% in July, the third month-over-month decline in the past three months.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On a year-over-year basis, home prices rose 2.9%, the lowest annual rate in Redfin\u2019s records going back to 2012.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A record 39 of the top 50 U.S. metros saw month-over-month price declines.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-purchase-cancellations-july-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Contract cancellations<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15% of home purchases fell through last month\u2014the highest July rate on record\u2014as high homebuying costs made buyers skittish. Cancellations were most common in Texas and Florida.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Week In A Nutshell A quiet week was capped by a surprisingly dovish speech from Fed Chair Powell, who set the stage for the Fed to restart rate cuts at their September 17 meeting, bringing rates down to end the week. This Week\u2019s Attractions The upcoming week looks to be very quiet on market-moving [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":81936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-81931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Room for Mortgage Rates to Edge Lower if Jobs and Inflation Data is Weak<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The upcoming week looks to be very quiet on market-moving economic events as economists eagerly await the next jobs report on September 5.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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Zhao","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg83fdc0124d9fcdfe5e5d8583a850a63f","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","caption":"Chen Zhao"},"description":"Chen Zhao is the head of economics research, where she produces research on the housing market for public and internal audiences. Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. 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