{"id":82346,"date":"2025-09-22T15:17:41","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T22:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=82346"},"modified":"2025-09-22T15:17:41","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T22:17:41","slug":"weekly-economics-update-september-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-september-22\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Fed Speeches May Offer Clues About Future Rate Cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><b>Last Week In A Nutshell\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates inched up as the Fed presented a murky view of rate cuts for the next two meetings, while multiple economic data reports came in stronger than expected.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Upcoming Attractions<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This week should be fairly quiet for rates as the PCE release doesn\u2019t usually move markets, but there will be plenty of Fedspeak to analyze.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Macroeconomic data:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Durable goods (Thursday)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Expected to decline modestly due to fewer commercial aircraft orders. Core capital goods expected to remain flat following a small increase last month.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">PCE inflation (Friday)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Core PCE expected to increase by 0.2% month over month in August following a 0.3% read for July. Annually, core PCE is expected to remain at 2.9%. This is the inflation measure the Fed uses, but it rarely moves markets as the components come from the CPI and PPI data released earlier in the month.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Housing data:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New home sales (Wednesday)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; New home sales are expected to fall about half a percent in August, but this data series has been historically volatile and only captures contract signings.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Existing home sales (Thursday)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Redfin expects an increase of less than a percentage point from July to 4.05m seasonally adjusted at an annual rate.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Fed speakers:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> With the Fed out of its blackout period, there is a crowded schedule of Fed speakers this week. The remarks will be analyzed for clues about the potential for rate cuts at the October and December meetings. Rates may move if any of the more influential members suggest a path that deviates from what the Fed projected last week.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monday:<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> New York Fed President Williams, St Louis Fed President Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Fed Governor Miran<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tuesday:<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Fed Vice Chair Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Fed Chair Powell<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wednesday:<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> San Francisco Fed President Daly<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thursday:<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, New York Fed President Williams, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, Fed Vice Chair Bowman, Fed Governor Barr, Dallas Fed President Logan, San Francisco Fed President Daly<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Friday:<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Richmond Fed President Barkin, Fed Vice Chair Bowman<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><b>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Fed meeting<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/fed-meeting-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> cut by 25 bps as anticipated and projected two more rate cuts for the next two meetings, but a change in the jobs and inflation data could easily pivot them back to no cuts. On the whole, however, given the direction of economic data, the base case seems to be that the jobs data will continue to weaken and inflation will remain milder than feared, paving the way for cuts at the October and December meetings. These cuts are almost entirely priced in already, limiting how much room there is for rates to fall if they come to fruition. Conversely, if the economic data make it impossible to execute these cuts, rates will rise significantly.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Macroeconomic data<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; A series of economic data prints last week came in stronger than expected, with retails sales leading the way. Core retail sales increased 0.7% from a month ago against expectations for a 0.4% increase. Industrial production increased by 0.1% in August instead of declining as expected. And, finally, jobless claims reverted back to 231,000 after the prior week\u2019s spike was discovered to be based on fraudulent claims.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Housing data<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>NAHB housing market index<\/em> &#8211; Held steady at 32 in September, matching August and June\u2019s level which were the lowest since December 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Housing starts and building permits<\/em> &#8211; Housing starts declined by 8.5% in August, more than expected. Multi-family housing starts declined by 11.7% and single-family housing starts declined by 7.0%. Building permits declined by 3.7% and fell to the lowest level since June 2020 against expectations for an increase, with multi-family falling by 6.4% and single-family falling by 2.2%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><b>Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here are a few highlights from Redfin\u2019s housing market reports:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/buyers-vs-sellers-august-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Number of buyers and sellers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There were an estimated 506,000 more home sellers than buyers in August, meaning buyers held the negotiating power. But the tables could turn if falling mortgage rates bring more buyers off the sidelines.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number of buyers in the market fell to an estimated 1.4 million last month\u2014the lowest level in records dating back to 2013 aside from the start of the pandemic.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sellers have retreated in response to buyer anxiety; the housing market has shed 50,000 sellers since May.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida and Texas are home to the strongest buyer\u2019s markets. There are only five remaining seller\u2019s markets, most of which are on the East Coast.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-supply-drops-august-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">August monthly market tracker<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Active listings fell 1.4% in August\u2014the biggest decline since 2023\u2014as homebuying anxiety spilled over to sellers.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level in about a year, which has led to an increase in refinancing activity but hasn\u2019t yet translated into a jump in sales.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin expects existing-home sales to end 2025 roughly in line with 2024, which was the slowest year since 1995\u2014but the outlook could improve if rates fall further.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices rose 1.7% year over year in August, the biggest uptick in five months.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Week In A Nutshell\u00a0 Mortgage rates inched up as the Fed presented a murky view of rate cuts for the next two meetings, while multiple economic data reports came in stronger than expected. Upcoming Attractions\u00a0 This week should be fairly quiet for rates as the PCE release doesn\u2019t usually move markets, but there will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":82353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-82346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Speeches May Offer Clues About Future Rate Cuts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the Fed out of its blackout period, there is a crowded schedule of Fed speakers this week. 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Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. 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