{"id":82640,"date":"2025-10-20T10:16:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T17:16:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=82640"},"modified":"2025-10-20T10:16:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T17:16:08","slug":"weekly-economics-update-october-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Inflation Report Unlikely to Stop Fed From Cutting Rates Next Week"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5><b>Last Week In A Nutshell\u00a0<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Geopolitical tensions and regional bank worries brought rates down last week as investors piled into the safety of Treasuries from the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><b>Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li><b style=\"font-style: inherit;\">CPI report (Friday):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Originally scheduled for Oct. 15, the CPI data will be released on Friday Oct. 24 to allow the Social Security Administration to calculate cost-of-living adjustments, even if the government is still shut down. Forecasters expect a firm 0.3% increase in prices relative to a month ago, corresponding to a 3.1% annual increase, keeping inflation above the Fed\u2019s target.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Existing home sales (Thursday): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin expects 4.05m (4% year over year) existing home sales seasonally adjusted at an annual rate (341k non seasonally adjusted, 3% year over year) for September.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Delayed if government shutdown continues:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> New homes sales (Friday), jobless claims (state level data still available).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>China\/US tensions:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The tensions subsided last week with the planned Oct 31 meeting between President Trump and President Xi looking like it will go ahead. But further volatility may impact markets as the meeting draws closer.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Regional banks: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Several regional banks\u2014including Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorporation\u2014announced significant loan losses and fraud-linked exposures, sparking investor fears about credit quality across the sector. The turmoil has revived concerns over liquidity, funding costs and hidden \u201cshadow-banking\u201d exposures (non-depositary lenders) tied to regional banks, raising questions about whether the weaknesses are concentrated or symptomatic of broader banking stress.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Inflation\/Fed meeting look ahead:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With the government shutdown pausing major economic data releases this month, the CPI report may garner even more attention than usual. It is expected that tariffs will continue to provide upward pressure on inflation while \u201ctrend inflation\u201d (inflation net of tariff effects) is expected to soften.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The CPI is unlikely to stop the expected (and fully priced in) rate cut from the Fed next week, however, especially since the September jobs report is still unreleased. Without having the data to prove otherwise, the Fed will cut to ensure that the labor market does not continue to weaken.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Redfin housing market reports:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homebuyer-discounts-september-2025\/\">Homebuyers Are Scoring the Biggest Autumn Discounts Since 2019<\/a><\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home that sold last month went for 1.4% less than its final list price\u2014the biggest September discount in six years\u2014as a slow housing market empowered buyers to negotiate.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home that sold also spent 50 days on the market\u2014the slowest September pace in nearly a decade.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Existing-home sales inched up to the highest level in eight months, but pending sales\u2014a more current gauge of demand\u2014fell from both a month and a year earlier.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sellers have started to pull back in response to sluggish demand; active listings fell roughly 1%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/all-cash-down-payments-2025\/\">29% of U.S. Home Purchases Are Made in Cash, Essentially Flat From a Year Ago<\/a><\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">29% of U.S. homebuyers are paying in cash, down essentially unchanged from last year and down from a peak of nearly 35% two years ago due to declining mortgage rates.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical down payment is climbing, partly because in today\u2019s expensive market, many buyers are affluent. It now sits at a record $70,000, and in percent terms, it\u2019s 19%\u2014up slightly from last year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All-cash payments are most common in Florida, and down payments are biggest in the Bay Area and Southern California.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Week In A Nutshell\u00a0 Geopolitical tensions and regional bank worries brought rates down last week as investors piled into the safety of Treasuries from the stock market. Upcoming Attractions CPI report (Friday): Originally scheduled for Oct. 15, the CPI data will be released on Friday Oct. 24 to allow the Social Security Administration to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":82641,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-82640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation Report Unlikely to Stop Fed From Cutting Rates Next Week<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The CPI report is unlikely to stop the expected (and fully priced in) rate cut from the Fed next week, especially since the September jobs report is still unreleased. Without having the data to prove otherwise, the Fed will cut to ensure that the labor market does not continue to weaken.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Inflation Report Unlikely to Stop Fed From Cutting Rates Next Week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The CPI report is unlikely to stop the expected (and fully priced in) rate cut from the Fed next week, especially since the September jobs report is still unreleased. Without having the data to prove otherwise, the Fed will cut to ensure that the labor market does not continue to weaken.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Redfin Real Estate News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-20T17:16:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/anastassia-anufrieva-3yb7ZsaY0LY-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chen Zhao\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chen Zhao\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Chen Zhao\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a0a62ede97b24e6f17c1cffb6ffdd574\"},\"headline\":\"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Inflation Report Unlikely to Stop Fed From Cutting Rates Next Week\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-20T17:16:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":558,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/anastassia-anufrieva-3yb7ZsaY0LY-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Economics\",\"national\"],\"articleSection\":[\"From Our Economists\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2025\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/\",\"name\":\"Inflation Report Unlikely to Stop Fed From Cutting Rates Next Week\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/anastassia-anufrieva-3yb7ZsaY0LY-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-20T17:16:08+00:00\",\"description\":\"The CPI report is unlikely to stop the expected (and fully priced in) rate cut from the Fed next week, especially since the September jobs report is still unreleased. 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Without having the data to prove otherwise, the Fed will cut to ensure that the labor market does not continue to weaken.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-october-20\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Inflation Report Unlikely to Stop Fed From Cutting Rates Next Week","og_description":"The CPI report is unlikely to stop the expected (and fully priced in) rate cut from the Fed next week, especially since the September jobs report is still unreleased. 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She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82640"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82644,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82640\/revisions\/82644"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82640"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=82640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}