{"id":82729,"date":"2025-10-27T11:48:05","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T18:48:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=82729"},"modified":"2025-10-27T11:48:05","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T18:48:05","slug":"weekly-economics-update-october-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-october-27\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Stable Ahead of Expected Fed Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5><b>This Week In A Nutshell<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rates are steady heading into the week following a cool inflation report last Friday, but they could rise even if the Fed cuts as expected on Wednesday\u2014if Fed officials push back on expectations for a subsequent cut in December.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><b>Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Fed Press Conference (Wednesday):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The Fed will cut rates by 25 bps\u2014as priced in by futures markets\u2014but the question is how Chair Powell will characterize expectations for the December meeting. He won\u2019t provide formal guidance, deferring instead to the data. But markets have priced in over 90% odds for a December cut and the September projections from the committee also narrowly showed another cut in December. Of course, the lack of government economic data during the shutdown has muddied the waters.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Case-Shiller home price index (Tuesday):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 Expected to show home prices increasing about 2% annually in August. Redfin\u2019s home price index <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-price-index-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">data<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for September is already out.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>NAR Pending Home sales (Wednesday): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Expected to come in slightly negative in September relative to last year. Redfin\u2019s September pending sales data is also <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homebuyer-discounts-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">out<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Postponed if shutdown continues:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Durable goods, GDP, PCE inflation, jobless claims (state level data still available).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>CPI report:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> September inflation came in surprisingly low, but much of the miss is due to a big drop in owners\u2019 equivalent rent (see <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/september-cpi-report-2\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for details), which was concentrated in the northeast and possibly a statistical fluke.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Existing home sales:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Seasonally adjusted, the level of home sales for September came in at 4.06 million, up 4% from a very low 3.9 million last September, but close to the rate we\u2019ve been averaging since 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>Diving a Little Deeper: Government shutdown data impacts<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are two separate issues when it comes to the missing government data: (1) data that was collected pre-shutdown and not yet released and (2) data that is not being collected. Let\u2019s dive into both.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>October data that has not been released: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main casualty here is the jobs report that was scheduled for release on October 3. Once that report is released, it should be entirely non-distorted as all data was collected pre-shutdown. The delay is unfortunate, but it\u2019s pretty likely the release of that data would not change the Fed\u2019s expected cut on Wednesday.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Data that is not being collected: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data collection stopped on October 1 for reports scheduled for release in November. This is where the longer the shutdown goes on, the more knock on effects there will be. To keep this simple, we will focus on just the two most important data releases: jobs and inflation.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Jobs data:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data collection would normally have started the week of Oct. 12-18.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the establishment survey, which surveys businesses and tells us how many jobs the economy is producing, the delay may not impact the ultimate accuracy of the data since businesses regularly report late. Research has shown that the late responses do not differ much from the on-time responses, perhaps because businesses have data they can rely on.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the household survey, which surveys households and tells us the unemployment rate, the delay is more problematic. In past shutdowns, the BLS has chosen to conduct the survey later, but ask about the same reference week, which means responses are now subject to individual recall bias. If the shutdown persists, it\u2019s possible the BLS will simply choose to forgo collecting October data.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Inflation data:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The shutdown will meaningfully impact the quality of CPI data for October.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The majority of data is collected by hand. Alternative data can only be used retroactively for a small minority of the basket of prices the CPI includes. There is no good alternative for the BLS and they may need to simply interpolate the missing data using data pre and post-shutdown, meaning that data will always remain missing.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b style=\"font-size: 1.2em; font-style: inherit;\">Redfin Data Reports<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homebuyer-discounts-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Homebuyers Are Scoring the Biggest Autumn Discounts Since 2019<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home that sold last month went for 1.4% less than its final list price\u2014the biggest September discount in six years\u2014as a slow housing market empowered buyers to negotiate.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home that sold also spent 50 days on the market\u2014the slowest September pace in nearly a decade.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Existing-home sales inched up to the highest level in eight months, but pending sales\u2014a more current gauge of demand\u2014fell from both a month and a year earlier.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sellers have started to pull back in response to sluggish demand; active listings fell roughly 1%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-price-index-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. Home Prices Rose 0.2% in September<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. home prices increased 0.2% from a month earlier in September on a seasonally adjusted basis.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On a year-over-year basis, home prices rose 3%, the slowest rate recorded in Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI) data going back to 2012.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">San Diego (+1.7%) recorded the highest month-over-month price growth of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, while San Antonio posted the biggest drop (-0.6%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/contract-cancellations-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sellers Are Getting Ghosted: 15% of Homebuying Contracts Were Canceled in September<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing costs are frightful and economic jitters are in the air, leading some buyers to leave sellers in the lurch.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/buyers-vs-sellers-september-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Austin, TX Is America\u2019s Strongest Buyer\u2019s Market, With Over Twice as Many Home Sellers as Buyers<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nationwide, there are an estimated 37% more sellers than buyers\u2014a near-record gap that\u2019s giving buyers across the country negotiating power.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are seven metros where sellers outnumber buyers by at least 2-to-1, and all but one are in Texas or Florida.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are five remaining seller\u2019s markets, the strongest of which is Newark, NJ.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sale prices are up 1.3% year over year in buyer\u2019s markets versus a 3.8% gain in seller\u2019s markets.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Week In A Nutshell Rates are steady heading into the week following a cool inflation report last Friday, but they could rise even if the Fed cuts as expected on Wednesday\u2014if Fed officials push back on expectations for a subsequent cut in December. Upcoming Attractions Fed Press Conference (Wednesday): The Fed will cut rates [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":82731,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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heading into the week following a cool inflation report last Friday, but they could rise even if the Fed cuts as expected on Wednesday\u2014if Fed officials push back on expectations for a subsequent cut in December.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-october-27\/","og_site_name":"Redfin Real Estate News","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin","article_published_time":"2025-10-27T18:48:05+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1800,"height":1200,"url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/m-ZzOa5G8hSPI-unsplash-scaled.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Chen Zhao","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@redfin","twitter_site":"@redfin","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Chen Zhao","Est. reading time":"5 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