{"id":82765,"date":"2025-10-29T12:44:20","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T19:44:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=82765"},"modified":"2025-10-29T12:44:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T19:44:20","slug":"fed-meeting-analysis-oct-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/fed-meeting-analysis-oct-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates to Tick Up After Fed Signals That December Cut Isn\u2019t Guaranteed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates will tick up after Fed Chair Powell sent a strong signal that a December rate cut\u2014that markets have already priced in\u2014is far from a foregone conclusion.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Rates will rise today even after the Fed cut their policy rate by 25 bps. Markets had fully priced in both today\u2019s cut and a December cut, but Fed Chair Powell said today that the December cut may very well not happen.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400;\">In his press conference, Powell highlighted division on the committee about the future path of rates. Today\u2019s rate cut only had two dissents, one for no cut and one for a 50 bps cut, but the tone of Powell\u2019s remarks showed that he wanted to send a forceful signal to markets to re-price expectations for December. When the Fed simply wants to leave itself wiggle room, they will say that \u201cpolicy is not on a pre-set course.\u201d This was a clear effort from the Fed to change expectations for the final meeting of the year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s remarks are consistent with the general view that the worst of the labor market risks may have passed. In other words, since the summer, the economy has been weak, but it seems to have stabilized. In that context, the Fed questioning whether there needs to be a third cut, after two consecutive cuts, makes sense.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>The Fed is showing a clear desire to \u201cslow down\u201d in the midst of \u201cfoggy conditions,\u201d since the government shutdown has stopped the flow of economic data.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The lack of government data, particularly labor market data, creates a high level of uncertainty for the Fed. That uncertainty will continue even if the government re-opens, because data collection has not happened for October. In the void, Fed officials are relying more on alternative data, but are mindful that it\u2019s not a replacement for the gold standard government statistics.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chair Powell\u2019s press conference remarks make it clear that many on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) view not cutting as the safer course of action in the face of higher uncertainty.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates will tick up after Fed Chair Powell sent a strong signal that a December rate cut\u2014that markets have already priced in\u2014is far from a foregone conclusion. Rates will rise today even after the Fed cut their policy rate by 25 bps. Markets had fully priced in both today\u2019s cut and a December cut, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":82767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-82765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates to Rise After Fed Signals That December Cut Isn\u2019t Guaranteed<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mortgage rates will tick up after Fed Chair Powell sent a strong signal that a December rate cut\u2014that markets have already priced in\u2014is far from a foregone conclusion.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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