{"id":83063,"date":"2025-11-24T16:15:42","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T00:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=83063"},"modified":"2025-11-24T16:15:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T00:15:59","slug":"weekly-economics-update-november-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economics-update-november-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Odds Firm for December Rate Cut Despite Limited Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><b>This Week In A Nutshell<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rates are a little lower with investors more hopeful for a rate cut at the December 10 Fed meeting after a mixed jobs report and New York Fed President John Williams signaling openness to another cut \u201cin the near term.\u201d But it truly feels like a coin toss, with no new data of significance coming before the meeting and the Fed entering their blackout period on November 29.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is a quiet week with no Fed speeches and few important data reports, just mostly delayed data releases from September.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>September retail sales (Tuesday):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Expected to increase about 0.3%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>September PPI (Tuesday):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> expected to increase 0.2% from prior month<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Jobs Report: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The delayed September <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/delayed-september-jobs-report-analysis\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">jobs report <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">showed both a higher unemployment rate (mostly due to most people entering the labor force rather than people losing their jobs) and stronger than expected hiring (highly concentrated in leisure\/hospitality and healthcare).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>NAR Existing Home Sales:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> October existing home sales came in at 4.1 million seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, according to NAR. That is the highest level since February\u2019s 4.27 million read, which was likely due to a statistical quirk, so it\u2019s probably actually the highest of the year. However, it\u2019s only a hair higher than the average so far for the year, which is around 4.05 million. Sales remain very sluggish despite lower mortgage rates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Diving a Little Deeper: Employment Data<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The September jobs report did not provide a clear signal for the Fed as they wrestle with whether to cut rates for a third time. Given the tone of the minutes and press conference from the October meeting, it seems like the Fed needs a reason to cut again and this report did not appear to meet that bar.New York Fed President Williams gave the markets some hope on Friday, however, when he said he was open to another cut \u201cin the near term.\u201d That nudged markets up to a 70% probability for a cut. Williams is a voting member of the FOMC and his speech could be viewed as a signal from the committee. There is also little on the calendar between now and December 10 that seems like it could move market expectations, with no more Fed speeches and no other major economic data to be released. The BLS has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/bls\/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the October jobs report will only have hiring data (not unemployment rate) and will be released at the same time as the November jobs report on December 16. The October CPI report is canceled and the November report will not be released until December 18. Still, it\u2019s not out of the question that the Fed would hold since the labor market has not fallen apart and inflation remains a risk. It truly feels 50\/50.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Redfin Reports:<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/luxury-homes-market-october-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. Luxury Home Prices Jump 5.5% in October, Triple the Pace of Non-Luxury Homes<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Luxury home sale prices rose 5.5% year over year to a median $1,278,950, a record high for October. Non-luxury home prices grew 1.8% to a median $373,249.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Luxury home sales increased 2.9% year over year, while non-luxury sales rose 0.7%; both remain near decade-low October levels.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Luxury inventory climbed 6.4% year over year, compared with a 9.5% increase in non-luxury inventory, with both categories posting their highest October levels in at least five years.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Luxury home prices rose most in Warren, MI (+14.9%), Milwaukee (+13.5%), and San Jose, CA (+11.9%). The only declines were in Tampa, FL (-2.9%) and Oakland, CA (-2.4%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/suburban-urban-rural-q3-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Housing Affordability Crisis Is Accelerating Fastest in Rural America<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rural homebuyers need to earn $75,000 to afford the typical home, up from $36,000 before the pandemic. Suburban and urban areas have also seen affordability erode\u2014but not as severely.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median home sale price in rural areas is up 61% from before the pandemic, compared with a 49% increase in suburban areas and a 46% gain in urban areas.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median household income in rural areas has climbed 33%, less than the 37% increase in suburban areas and the 39% uptick in urban areas.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/buyers-vs-sellers-october-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s the Strongest Buyer\u2019s Market in Records Dating Back Over a Decade<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home sellers outnumbered buyers by a record 36.8% in October, giving buyers who were in the market room to negotiate.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number of buyers in the market dropped 1.7% to the lowest level on record aside from the start of the pandemic amid high housing costs and economic uncertainty.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number of sellers dropped 0.5% to the lowest level since February as sellers retreated in response to low buyer demand.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The strongest buyer\u2019s markets are in Texas and Florida, while the strongest seller\u2019s markets are in the Tri-State area. San Francisco quickly shifted to a balanced market.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-plateauing-october-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The U.S. Housing Market Is Stuck, With Sales and Listings Barely Budging<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home sales and new listings were little changed from a month and a year earlier in October, and prices have also shown signs of flattening. Housing-market activity is plateauing as Americans grapple with high costs and economic uncertainty.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, buyers have the upper hand; the typical home that sold went for 1.5% less than its final list price\u2014the biggest October discount since 2019. Buyers are able to negotiate because they are outnumbered by sellers.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While sales and listings are plateauing on average, that isn\u2019t the case everywhere; in San Francisco, for example, demand is jumping and supply is shrinking.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-price-index-october-2025\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. Home Prices Rose 0.3% in October<\/span><\/a>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. home prices rose 0.3% from a month earlier in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices increased 2.9% year over year, down from 3.1% in September and the slowest growth since 2012.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prices fell in 14 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, down from 37 metros posting drops in July. The biggest declines were in Fort Lauderdale, FL (-1.4%) and Philadelphia (-0.6%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Week In A Nutshell Rates are a little lower with investors more hopeful for a rate cut at the December 10 Fed meeting after a mixed jobs report and New York Fed President John Williams signaling openness to another cut \u201cin the near term.\u201d But it truly feels like a coin toss, with no [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":78378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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