{"id":83356,"date":"2025-12-18T08:19:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T16:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=83356"},"modified":"2025-12-18T08:19:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T16:19:14","slug":"mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Stay Relatively Flat After Noisy Inflation Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Takeaway:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Core CPI inflation came in at 2.6% year over year, much lower than consensus expectations of 3.0%. That\u2019s the largest difference between expectations and reported CPI in recent memory. Rates will fall ever so slightly, but not nearly as much as they normally would given the seismic miss because the data are heavily distorted by assumptions the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made to smooth over the missing October data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Up to a third of the goods and services that factor into core CPI may have distorted prices due to missing data collection and assumptions necessitated by the government shutdown. Most of these distortions should resolve in December, but some will take longer, including rent.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government shutdown that ended November 12 meant that (1) October inflation data could not be collected and (2) November data collection was delayed. With October data missing, the BLS could only release year over year metrics or two month average metrics, not the usual month over month metric.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Economists expected core inflation to read 3.0% year over year in November. However, the BLS published a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/additional-resources\/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">methodological update<\/span> <\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">last night that caused forecasters to update their expectations in favor of a lower reading closer to 2.8%. The actual reading came in at 2.6%, a historically large miss relative to expectations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s inflation data is biased downwards because the BLS does not collect new prices every month. For many items, they collect prices every two months or every six months. For the items scheduled for collection in October, the BLS policy is to carry forward the price from the previous month. This assumes that prices stayed flat (implying zero inflation) rather than assuming the same inflation rate from the previous period. This is consistent with their normal <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Ef_jlhELY2s&amp;t=1s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">procedure<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and potentially affects up to 30% of the total basket. Those items with price collection every two months should see a reversion in December, but rent is collected every six months, so part of the rent sample will have lower than expected inflation until April.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It would be like if you wanted to measure how much temperatures rose in the United States between May and July, and you measured temperatures in every state in May, but then only checked half of states in July, and assumed temperatures were flat in every state you didn\u2019t check. You would significantly underestimate temperature increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition, the shutdown delayed November data collection deeper into the holiday discounting window, so the BLS collected lower prices than they otherwise would have. This was taken into account by forecasters ahead of time and should revert in December.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The distortions in the data obscure any underlying real decline in inflation that may be present. The December data will be much less noisy, but still not fully back to normal.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Mortgage rates will not drop nearly as much as they normally would after such a big decline in CPI because the distortions mean the Fed will not use this data to justify a rate cut.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fed Chair Powell had sent a clear signal in the last press conference that the noisy post-shutdown data would not be a greenlight for a January rate cut, saying \u201cSo we\u2019re going to get data, but we\u2019re going to have to look at it carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye by the time of the January meeting,&#8230;and understand that it may be distorted by very technical factors.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Takeaway: Core CPI inflation came in at 2.6% year over year, much lower than consensus expectations of 3.0%. That\u2019s the largest difference between expectations and reported CPI in recent memory. Rates will fall ever so slightly, but not nearly as much as they normally would given the seismic miss because the data are heavily distorted [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":82490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-83356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates Stay Relatively Flat After Noisy Inflation Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rates will fall ever so slightly, but not nearly as much as they normally would when inflation comes in this much below expectations.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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Zhao","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg83fdc0124d9fcdfe5e5d8583a850a63f","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","caption":"Chen Zhao"},"description":"Chen Zhao is the head of economics research, where she produces research on the housing market for public and internal audiences. Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83356"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83356\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83358,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83356\/revisions\/83358"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83356"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=83356"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=83356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}