{"id":83392,"date":"2025-12-22T11:31:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T19:31:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=83392"},"modified":"2025-12-22T11:31:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T19:31:12","slug":"mortgage-rates-steady-economic-data-issues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-economic-data-issues\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Remain Steady Despite Problematic Inflation, Jobs Reports"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"p-client_container\">\n<div class=\"p-ia4_client_container\">\n<div class=\"p-ia4_client p-ia4_client--with-split-view-feature\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace_wrapper\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-label=\"Redfin Corporation\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace__layout\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace__tabpanel p-client_workspace__tabpanel--tahoe\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-label=\"Home\">\n<div class=\"enabled-managed-focus-container\" role=\"none\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"p-view_contents p-view_contents--primary\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Channel ask-an-economist\">\n<div class=\"tabbed_channel__Abx5r\">\n<div class=\"tabbed_channel__Abx5r\">\n<div class=\"channel_tab_panel__zJ5Bt c-tabs__tab_panel c-tabs__tab_panel--active c-tabs__tab_panel--full_height\" role=\"none\" data-qa=\"tabs_content_container\">\n<div class=\"p-file_drag_drop__container\">\n<div class=\"p-workspace__primary_view_body\">\n<div class=\"p-message_pane p-message_pane--classic-nav p-message_pane--scrollbar-float-adjustment p-message_pane--with-bookmarks-bar\" data-qa=\"message_pane\">\n<div>\n<div id=\"message-list\" role=\"presentation\">\n<div id=\"message-list\" class=\"c-virtual_list c-virtual_list--scrollbar c-message_list c-message_list--context_bar_showing c-message_list--dark c-scrollbar c-scrollbar--fade\" role=\"presentation\">\n<div class=\"c-scrollbar__hider\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"slack_kit_scrollbar\">\n<div class=\"c-scrollbar__child\" role=\"presentation\">\n<div class=\"c-virtual_list__scroll_container\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"slack_kit_list\">\n<div id=\"message-list_1766430059.244719\" class=\"c-virtual_list__item\" tabindex=\"-1\" role=\"listitem\" aria-label=\"Chen Zhao. Here\u2019s is our weekly update. We\u2019ll be off next week! Happy holidays everyone! December 22, 2025 This Week In A Nutshell: Rates are flat despite a much lower than expected inflation report and slightly weak jobs report last week due to serious data issues caused by the government shutdown Upcoming Attractions: This is a very light data week given the upcoming holidays. The most important data are Tuesday\u2019s October durable goods and November industrial production data, but these are unlikely to move rates. Last Week\u2019s Highlights: \u2022 The two highlights last week were the [ October\/November jobs data (link)]and [ November CPI (link)]inflation data. Combined, they pointed to a weaker and much less inflationary economy. However, both, but especially CPI, were plagued by data distortions that made interpreting the data very difficult. More details below.. \u2022 [ NAR Existing Home Sales (link)] came in at 4.13 million at an annual rate (-1.0% year over year) after adjusting for seasonal variation with 293,000 actual home sales closed in November (-7.0% year over year) because last month had one less Friday than November 2024. The housing market has not deviated meaningfully from 4.0 million existing home sales since November 2022.. Diving a Little Deeper: The government shutdown is over, but we will be living with the aftershocks in the economic data, particularly inflation data, for a while: \u2022 Last Thursday\u2019s [ CPI inflation report (link)]came in massively below expectations at 2.6% year over year for core inflation compared to expectations of 3.0%. At least two-thirds of the difference between actual and expected can be explained by identifiable problems in the data. The remaining one-third could be due to a real unexpected decline in inflation, hidden data distortions, or some of both. Fed officials [ signaled (link)] afterwards that they will not cut rates until there is higher quality data. Much of the issue will reverse in December\u2019s data, but some impact will linger until April 2026. There were two main problems:. \u25e6 Reported inflation was dragged down by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) assuming zero inflation where there was missing October data.. \u25a0 Rent is the largest category in core CPI carrying more than 40% of the total weight, but data is not collected every month. The sample is split into six groups where data is only collected for one group each month. For the portion that was supposed to get fresh data in October, the BLS assumed that rent in October was the same as last April, implying zero inflation. The real inflation rate is almost certainly higher than zero because [ rental inflation (link)] in the CPI has not been zero since the financial crisis. Because this group will not get fresh data until next April, it will carry this assumption of zero inflation for the next six months. That means that overall rent inflation\u2013and therefore, overall inflation\u2013will be lower than it should be until April.. \u25a0 There is a similar problem for other categories of data that get fresh data only every other month rather than every month. However, for these, the problem will reverse with new data next month.. \u25e6 BLS officials collected data later than usual in November because the shutdown ended November 12th. That means the prices they got were more heavily impacted by holiday discounts than usual, implying lower inflation than was actually the case for the entire month of November. This issue should also resolve itself in next month\u2019s data.. Redfin Housing Market Reports: \u2022 [ Home Sellers Retreat, With Supply Posting Biggest Decline Since 2023 (link)]. \u25e6 Active listings fell 1.4% month over month in November as sellers backed off due to sluggish homebuyer demand.. \u25e6 Pending home sales fell the most in nearly a year, and the typical home that did sell sat on the market for 53 days\u2014the slowest November pace in nearly a decade.. \u25e6 A silver lining for buyers: Many sellers are cutting prices to attract offers\u2014the typical home that sold last month went for 1.6% below its final list price.. At 11:00 AM.\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-qa=\"virtual-list-item\" data-item-key=\"1766430059.244719\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__background c-message_kit__background--hovered p-message_pane_message__message c-message_kit__message\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"message_container\" data-qa-unprocessed=\"false\" data-qa-placeholder=\"false\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__hover c-message_kit__hover--hovered\" role=\"document\" aria-roledescription=\"message\" data-qa-hover=\"true\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__actions c-message_kit__actions--default\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__gutter\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__gutter__right\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"message_content\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__blocks c-message_kit__blocks--rich_text\">\n<div class=\"c-message__message_blocks c-message__message_blocks--rich_text\" data-qa=\"message-text\">\n<div class=\"p-block_kit_renderer\" data-qa=\"block-kit-renderer\">\n<div class=\"p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper--first\">\n<div class=\"p-rich_text_block\" dir=\"auto\">\n<h3 class=\"c-mrkdwn__quote\" data-stringify-type=\"quote\">This Week In A Nutshell<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-mrkdwn__quote\" data-stringify-type=\"quote\">Mortgage rates are flat despite a much lower than expected inflation report and slightly weak jobs report last week due to serious data issues caused by the government shutdown.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"c-mrkdwn__quote\" data-stringify-type=\"quote\">Upcoming Attractions<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-mrkdwn__quote\" data-stringify-type=\"quote\">This is a very light data week given the upcoming holidays. The most important data are Tuesday\u2019s October durable goods and November industrial production data, but these are unlikely to move rates.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"c-mrkdwn__quote\" data-stringify-type=\"quote\">Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The two main highlights last week were the <b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/economist-take-november-jobs-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/economist-take-november-jobs-data\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">October\/November jobs data\u00a0<\/a><\/u><\/b>and\u00a0<b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">November CPI\u00a0<\/a><\/u><\/b>inflation data. Combined, they pointed to a weaker and much less inflationary economy. However, both, but especially CPI, were plagued by data distortions that made interpreting the data very difficult. More details below.<\/p>\n<p><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-12\/ehs-11-2025-overview-2025-12-19.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-12\/ehs-11-2025-overview-2025-12-19.pdf\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">NAR Existing Home Sales<\/a><\/u><\/b><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"> <\/b>came in at 4.13 million at an annual rate (-1.0% year over year) after adjusting for seasonal variation with 293,000 actual home sales closed in November (-7.0% year over year) because last month had one less Friday than November 2024. The housing market has not deviated meaningfully from 4.0 million existing home sales since November 2022.<\/p>\n<p><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\">Diving a Little Deeper:\u00a0<\/b>The government shutdown is over, but we will be living with the aftershocks in the economic data, particularly inflation data, for a while:<\/p>\n<p>Last Thursday\u2019s\u00a0<u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">CPI inflation report\u00a0<\/a><\/u>came in massively below expectations at 2.6% year over year for core inflation compared to expectations of 3.0%. At least two-thirds of the difference between actual and expected can be explained by identifiable problems in the data. The remaining one-third could be due to a real unexpected decline in inflation, hidden data distortions, or some of both. Fed officials\u00a0<u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/central-banking\/feds-hammack-is-inflation-wary-and-prefers-holding-rates-steady-into-the-spring-7c07f5d8?st=gw9Q7F&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/central-banking\/feds-hammack-is-inflation-wary-and-prefers-holding-rates-steady-into-the-spring-7c07f5d8?st=gw9Q7F&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">signaled<\/a><\/u>\u00a0afterwards that they will not cut rates until there is higher quality data. Much of the issue will reverse in December\u2019s data, but some impact will linger until April 2026.<\/p>\n<p>There were two main problems. First, reported inflation was dragged down by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) assuming zero inflation where there was missing October data.<\/p>\n<p>Rent is the largest category in core CPI carrying more than 40% of the total weight, but data is not collected every month. The sample is split into six groups where data is only collected for one group each month. For the portion that was supposed to get fresh data in October, the BLS assumed that rent in October was the same as last April, implying zero inflation. The real inflation rate is almost certainly higher than zero because\u00a0<u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1P47Y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1P47Y\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">rental inflation<\/a><\/u>\u00a0in the CPI has not been zero since the financial crisis. Because this group will not get fresh data until next April, it will carry this assumption of zero inflation for the next six months. That means that overall rent inflation\u2013and therefore, overall inflation\u2013will be lower than it should be until April.<\/p>\n<p>There is a similar problem for other categories of data that get fresh data only every other month rather than every month. However, for these, the problem will reverse with new data next month.<\/p>\n<p>BLS officials also collected data later than usual in November because the shutdown ended November 12th. That means the prices they got were more heavily impacted by holiday discounts than usual, implying lower inflation than was actually the case for the entire month of November. This issue should also resolve itself in next month\u2019s data.<\/p>\n<h3>Notable Redfin Housing Market Reports<\/h3>\n<p><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><br \/>\n<a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-supply-falls-november-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-supply-falls-november-2025\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">Home Sellers Retreat, With Supply Posting Biggest Decline Since 2023<\/a><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i data-stringify-type=\"italic\">Active listings fell 1.4% month over month in November as sellers backed off due to sluggish homebuyer demand.<\/i><\/li>\n<li><i data-stringify-type=\"italic\">Pending home sales fell the most in nearly a year, and the typical home that did sell sat on the market for 53 days\u2014the slowest November pace in nearly a decade.<\/i><\/li>\n<li><i data-stringify-type=\"italic\">A silver lining for buyers: Many sellers are cutting prices to attract offers\u2014the typical home that sold last month went for 1.6% below its final list price.<\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Week In A Nutshell &nbsp; Mortgage rates are flat despite a much lower than expected inflation report and slightly weak jobs report last week due to serious data issues caused by the government shutdown. Upcoming Attractions &nbsp; This is a very light data week given the upcoming holidays. The most important data are Tuesday\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":83138,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-83392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates Steady Despite Problematic Inflation, Jobs Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rates are flat despite a lower than expected inflation report and weak jobs report due to data issues caused by the government shutdown.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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