{"id":83486,"date":"2026-01-08T15:57:52","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T23:57:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=83486"},"modified":"2026-01-08T18:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T02:00:14","slug":"federal-government-mortgage-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/federal-government-mortgage-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Orders $200B Mortgage Bond Buy, Which Will Likely Nudge Rates Down Slightly to 6%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ultimate impact of such a move would likely be limited because this would be a relatively small asset purchase program, by historical standards.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President Trump said he is directing the federal government to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/08\/business\/mortgage-bonds-trump-purchase-rates\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> above what they would normally buy, which he <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/115861588073149023\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said on social media<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> would help bring down mortgage rates and combat the housing affordability crisis. The funds would come from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, mortgage companies that are under government conservatorship.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The news brought about an immediate rally in MBS markets, which translated to lower rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>But the ultimate impact will be small. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate commonly used by the average homebuyer may dip from about 6.15% to about 6%.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We estimate the move will bring mortgage rates down 10 to 15 bps. That means rates may decline to 6% from 6.1% or 6.15%. We don\u2019t expect this to massively lower rates or unlock tons of inventory.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The impact is likely to be limited because spending $200 billion on mortgage bonds is actually a relatively small asset purchase program. For instance, the Federal Reserve has instituted various Quantitative Easing (QE) programs over the last two decades to bring mortgage rates down. In those programs, the Fed bought much larger quantities of both MBS and Treasury securities to push down long-term rates (such as mortgage rates).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s a summary:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">QE1 (2008 to 2010): $300 billion in Treasuries and $600 billion in MBS<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">QE2 (2010 to 2011): $600 billion in Treasuries and no MBS<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">QE3 (2012 to 2014): $790 billion in Treasuries and $823 billion in MBS<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">QE4 (2020 to 2022): $2 trillion in Treasuries and $2.5 trillion in MBS<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>It\u2019s unclear whether Fannie and Freddie have the ability to make such a move.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fannie and Freddie have already been increasing their MBS <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-15\/fannie-freddie-quietly-add-billions-to-mortgage-bond-portfolios\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">purchases<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> through late 2025. Whether they could make $200 billion in additional purchases depends on how much cash they have, and whether they have room in their portfolio before they hit the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sm1236#:~:text=Limit%20Future%20Increases%20to%20the,mortgage%20portfolio%20was%20$193%20billion.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">regulatory caps<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on how much MBS they can retain.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The President could not direct the Fed to make MBS purchases.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed is independent from the executive branch. On numerous occasions, Fed Chair Powell has rejected the idea of buying MBS to bring mortgage rates down. He has pointed to the housing supply shortage as the root cause of the affordability crisis. The Fed also started to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/bowman20250926a.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">pivot away<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from MBS toward Treasuries in late 2025.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We will keep an eye on how mortgage rates move in the aftermath of this news.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ultimate impact of such a move would likely be limited because this would be a relatively small asset purchase program, by historical standards.\u00a0 President Trump said he is directing the federal government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds above what they would normally buy, which he said on social media would help bring [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":83487,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,19],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-83486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump Orders $200B Mortgage Bond Buy, Which Will Likely Nudge Rates Down Slightly to 6%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The ultimate impact of such a move would likely be limited because this would be a relatively small asset purchase program, by historical standards.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Zhao","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg83fdc0124d9fcdfe5e5d8583a850a63f","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","caption":"Chen Zhao"},"description":"Chen Zhao is the head of economics research, where she produces research on the housing market for public and internal audiences. Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83486"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83490,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83486\/revisions\/83490"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83486"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=83486"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=83486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}