{"id":83502,"date":"2026-01-12T13:37:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T21:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=83502"},"modified":"2026-01-12T13:37:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T21:37:08","slug":"weekly-economic-update-fed-investigation-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-fed-investigation-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Dipped After Trump\u2019s Mortgage-Bond Move, Fed Turmoil and Inflation Data Loom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropped<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> last week after President Trump <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/federal-government-mortgage-bonds\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced $200B<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of MBS purchases.\u00a0 This week starts with news of the Justice Department&#8217;s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Inflation data comes out on Tuesday.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Upcoming Attractions<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation data is the main headline for economic data this week, but we\u2019ll also be watching for a possible ruling on tariffs from the Supreme Court and further announcements on housing affordability from the White House.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>CPI\/PPI Report (Tuesday\/Wednesday):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The CPI report is expected to show a rebound in inflation after several methodological <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">issues<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> caused inflation to be underreported last month. It will still not be a clean reading because one issue, the underreporting in shelter inflation, is likely to persist through April.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Possible Supreme Court <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/legal\/government\/supreme-court-set-issue-rulings-trump-awaits-fate-tariffs-2026-01-09\/\"><b>ruling on tariffs<\/b><\/a><b> (Wednesday): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Supreme Court did not issue a ruling last Friday on the President\u2019s authority to implement tariffs via IEEPA. The ruling may come on Wednesday. If the Court rules against the White House, the President is expected to reinstate the existing tariffs via other authorities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Housing data:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>New Home Sales for September\/October (Tuesday)<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Existing Homes Sales for December (Wednesday): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin\u2019s forecast is an annual rate of sales of 4.15 million seasonally adjusted (337,000 sales closed in December), which is up very slightly from November.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><strong>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/federal-government-mortgage-bonds\/\"><b>$200B MBS purchase<\/b><\/a><b>: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The President\u2019s announcement of a $200 billion mortgage-bond purchase caused mortgage rates to drop slightly. However, the ultimate impact is likely to be limited because of questions around plausibility and the relatively small size of the program compared with similar past efforts from the Fed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mixed-jobs-report-unlikely-to-move-mortgage-rates\/\"><b>Jobs report<\/b><\/a><b>: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last week\u2019s data once again highlighted the low hire-low fire nature of the labor market with both a tepid pace of job creation and a small drop in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.4%. The data did not move rates and will leave the Fed on pause for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>DOJ investigation of Fed Chair Powell: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Financial markets reacted late on Sunday with slightly higher rates, weaker dollar, and a small drop in the stock market after Fed Chair Powell issued a response to news that the department of justice had opened an investigation into his handling of renovations at the Fed. More below.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Diving a Little Deeper: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What does the latest development in the ongoing tension between the White House and the Fed mean for housing?<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest news is broadly being interpreted as another possible threat of the Fed\u2019s independence in setting interest rate policy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Political influence in monetary policy is likely to result in higher mortgage rates than lower mortgage rates. Here is what we wrote a few months ago on this issue: <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Federal Reserve only directly sets the Fed Funds Rate, an overnight lending rate, which influences, but does not determine long term rates such as mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are priced off of ten year treasury yields, which are determined based on investors\u2019 expectations for economic growth and inflation over the next ten years. Mortgage rates can move in the opposite direction of short term rates like the Fed Funds rate, if investors believe, for example, that the Fed is cutting too much and risking higher inflation in the future. This trade off between short term and long term outcomes is why the Fed\u2019s independence is so critical. One recent example of the effect of eroding the Fed\u2019s independence was on July 16 when Bloomberg reported that the President intended to fire the Fed Chair. Long term rates increased while short term rates fell on the news until the President dismissed the report as inaccurate.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Following the news, markets moved a little with slightly higher rates, a weaker dollar, and a drop in the stock market. Investors are likely waiting to see how Senate Republicans respond. Senator Thom Tillis said Sunday that he will oppose any nominee to the Fed, including for the chair vacancy, until this issue is resolved.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><strong>Redfin Housing Market Reports<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/purchasing-power-improves-rates-drop-january-2026\/\"><b>Trump\u2019s Mortgage Bond Order Pushes Rates Below 6% For First Time in Nearly 3 Years, Boosting Purchasing Power<\/b><\/a><i><\/i>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Purchasing power has increased $30,000 in the last six months, with rates falling below 6% the day after President Trump ordered a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Week In A Nutshell: Mortgage rates dropped last week after President Trump announced $200B of MBS purchases.\u00a0 This week starts with news of the Justice Department&#8217;s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Inflation data comes out on Tuesday. Upcoming Attractions &nbsp; Inflation data is the main headline for economic data this week, but [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":83507,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-83502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Dipped After Trump\u2019s Mortgage-Bond Move, Fed Turmoil and Inflation Data Loom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This week starts with news of the Justice Department&#039;s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 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Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. 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