{"id":83509,"date":"2026-01-13T07:08:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T15:08:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=83509"},"modified":"2026-01-13T11:06:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T19:06:53","slug":"mortgage-rates-expected-to-stay-put-after-todays-mild-inflation-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-expected-to-stay-put-after-todays-mild-inflation-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Expected to Stay Put After Today&#8217;s Mild Inflation Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"p-client_container\">\n<div class=\"p-ia4_client_container\">\n<div class=\"p-ia4_client p-ia4_client--with-split-view-feature p-ia4_client--with-secondary-view-showing\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace_wrapper\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-label=\"Redfin Corporation\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace__layout\">\n<div class=\"p-client_workspace__tabpanel\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-label=\"Home\">\n<div class=\"enabled-managed-focus-container\" role=\"none\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"p-view_contents p-view_contents--secondary\" tabindex=\"-1\" role=\"dialog\" aria-label=\"Thread in channel comms-news (private)\">\n<div class=\"p-flexpane p-flexpane--iap1 p-flexpane--ia_details_popover\" data-qa=\"threads_flexpane\">\n<div class=\"p-flexpane__body p-threads_flexpane_container p-flexpane__body--light\" data-qa=\"flexpane_body\">\n<div class=\"p-file_drag_drop__container p-threads_flexpane\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"flex_one no_min_height\" role=\"none\">\n<div id=\"C02HFN63A6A-1768312781.575219-thread-list-Thread\" role=\"presentation\">\n<div id=\"C02HFN63A6A-1768312781.575219-thread-list-Thread\" class=\"c-virtual_list c-virtual_list--scrollbar c-scrollbar\" role=\"presentation\">\n<div class=\"c-scrollbar__hider\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"slack_kit_scrollbar\">\n<div class=\"c-scrollbar__child\" role=\"presentation\">\n<div class=\"c-virtual_list__scroll_container\" tabindex=\"-1\" role=\"list\" data-qa=\"slack_kit_list\" aria-label=\"Thread in comms-news (private channel, 4 replies)\">\n<div id=\"C02HFN63A6A-1768312781.575219-thread-list-Thread_1768315935.914639\" class=\"c-virtual_list__item\" tabindex=\"-1\" role=\"listitem\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-qa=\"virtual-list-item\" data-item-key=\"1768315935.914639\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__background c-message_kit__message c-message_kit__thread_message\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"message_container\" data-qa-unprocessed=\"false\" data-qa-placeholder=\"false\" data-msg-ts=\"1768315935.914639\" data-msg-channel-id=\"C02HFN63A6A\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__hover\" role=\"document\" aria-roledescription=\"message\" data-qa-hover=\"true\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__actions c-message_kit__actions--default\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__gutter\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__gutter__right\" role=\"presentation\" data-qa=\"message_content\">\n<div class=\"c-message_kit__blocks c-message_kit__blocks--rich_text\">\n<div class=\"c-message__message_blocks c-message__message_blocks--rich_text\" data-qa=\"message-text\">\n<div class=\"p-block_kit_renderer\" data-qa=\"block-kit-renderer\">\n<div class=\"p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper--first\">\n<div class=\"p-rich_text_block\" dir=\"auto\"><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\">Takeaway:<\/b> Mortgage rates are unlikely to move after a mild inflation report still marred by government shutdown-related distortions. Looking through the statistical issues, inflation likely remains as expected, keeping the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future.<\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"p-rich_text_block\" dir=\"auto\"><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><\/b><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\">Inflation was slightly lower than expected in December in today\u2019s CPI report. The numbers are still skewed by the government shutdown, but underlying inflation is unlikely to be a major cause for concern.<\/b><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"p-rich_text_block\" dir=\"auto\">\n<ul class=\"p-rich_text_list p-rich_text_list__bullet p-rich_text_list--nested\" data-stringify-type=\"unordered-list\" data-list-tree=\"true\" data-indent=\"0\" data-border=\"1\" data-border-radius-top-cap=\"0\" data-border-radius-bottom-cap=\"0\">\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\" data-stringify-indent=\"0\" data-stringify-border=\"1\">After stripping out the volatile food and energy categories that Fed officials care less about, core prices increased 0.24% from a month ago and 2.6% from a year ago in December. Forecasters had expected 0.36% and 2.8%.<\/li>\n<li data-stringify-indent=\"0\" data-stringify-border=\"1\">After the government shutdown ended, the November CPI report was distorted by a\u00a0<u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">number of factors<\/a><\/u>\u00a0that caused the reported numbers to be too low. Many of those issues resolved themselves with today\u2019s report. But one remaining issue is that shelter inflation\u2013that is, rent inflation\u2013is still too low.<\/li>\n<li data-stringify-indent=\"0\" data-stringify-border=\"1\">Rent, over 40% of core CPI, is sampled in six groups, with only one surveyed monthly. For the group due for fresh data in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) assumed zero inflation. This assumption is likely too low, as rental CPI inflation hasn\u2019t been zero since the financial crisis. This zero-inflation assumption will persist for this group until next April, artificially suppressing inflation until then.<\/li>\n<li data-stringify-indent=\"0\" data-stringify-border=\"1\">Looking through the statistical issues, the \u201cexcess\u201d inflation above where the Fed would like inflation to be is almost all in goods inflation rather than services. This inflation is primarily driven by tariffs, which means that it will come down later in 2026 once the higher price levels have been fully baked in. That also implies that underlying inflation, apart from tariff effects, is largely fine so there is little need to worry about the Fed hiking rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\">The Fed will remain on hold and mortgage rates are unlikely to budge much for the foreseeable future.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul class=\"p-rich_text_list p-rich_text_list__bullet p-rich_text_list--nested\" data-stringify-type=\"unordered-list\" data-list-tree=\"true\" data-indent=\"0\" data-border=\"1\" data-border-radius-top-cap=\"0\">\n<li data-stringify-indent=\"0\" data-stringify-border=\"1\">The Fed is much more focused on labor market data and any signs of increasing recession risk that would warrant faster rate cuts.<\/li>\n<li data-stringify-indent=\"0\" data-stringify-border=\"1\">Much of the attention right now in financial markets is on Fed independence given the news of a\u00a0<u data-stringify-type=\"underline\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-fed-investigation-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-fed-investigation-inflation\/\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">criminal investigation<\/a><\/u>\u00a0into Chairman Powell.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Takeaway: Mortgage rates are unlikely to move after a mild inflation report still marred by government shutdown-related distortions. Looking through the statistical issues, inflation likely remains as expected, keeping the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future. Inflation was slightly lower than expected in December in today\u2019s CPI report. The numbers are still skewed by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":83515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,20],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-83509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-housing-affordability"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates Expected to Stay Put After Today&#039;s Mild Inflation Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mortgage rates are unlikely to move after a mild inflation report still marred by government shutdown-related distortions. 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