{"id":84206,"date":"2026-03-02T12:32:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T20:32:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84206"},"modified":"2026-03-02T12:32:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T20:32:08","slug":"weekly-economic-update-march-2-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-march-2-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: After Dipping Below 6%, Mortgage Rates Enter Unpredictable Week Amid Iran Tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019re in for an unpredictable week with potentially significant moves in rates between the ongoing Iran conflict and important job market data on Friday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The two key economic data points this week are the jobs report and retail sales, both on Friday. But fallout from the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/03\/02\/world\/iran-us-israel-attack-trump\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">evolving conflict<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with Iran could overshadow both.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Jobs Report (Friday): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Job creation is expected to be lower than last month\u2019s blockbuster number, around 60k vs 130k last month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up slightly, from 4.3% to 4.4%. These numbers would indicate a labor marketthat\u00a0 remains sluggish but not recessionary.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Retail Sales (Friday): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Core retail sales (excludes cars, gas, and building materials) is expected to pick up to 0.3% month over month vs. -0.1% last month.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AI sentiment dominated the market last week.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President Trump\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/25\/us\/politics\/trump-state-of-the-union-takeaways.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">state of the union address<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was long, but short on content.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The tariff situation continues to evolve slowly after the Supreme Court <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/02\/20\/us\/trump-tariffs-supreme-court\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ruled against IEEPA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but rates do not appear to be moving much on that news. Similarly, there was a slew of economic data last week, but little was meaningful enough to move rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The average mortgage rate <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/purchasing-power-up-mortgage-rates-down\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropped below 6%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> last week for the first time in three and a half years\u00a0 primarily because <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.citriniresearch.com\/p\/2028gic\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">negative AI sentiment<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> drove money from stocks to the safety of bond markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10-year yields and mortgage rates have jumped about 11 bps so far today as the market moves from the AI doomerism of last week to concerns about a war with Iran.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What should we ultimately expect for housing and rates? It\u2019s hard to say. In the short term, we could see volatility, but ultimately, the net effect may be pretty small.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main transmission mechanism of the Iran conflict to the real economy and financial markets is through oil markets. But the length and scope of the energy disruption is uncertain at this stage.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is tension in how rates respond to an oil shock. Higher energy prices can lead to higher rates through inflation expectations. Although the Fed mostly cares about core inflation, which excludes energy prices, sustained high energy prices can lead to higher prices in other goods\/services. However, there are also negative economic growth implications that would argue for lower rates. In addition, geopolitical turmoil sometimes leads to lower rates as investors dial back risk to seek out safety in bond markets.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Redfin Housing Market Reports<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/pending-sales-fall-through-january-2026\/\"><b>Nearly 1 in 7 Home Sales Are Falling Through, a Record For This Time of Year<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home-purchase agreements are canceled at the highest rate in San Antonio, where sellers outnumber buyers two to one\u2013giving buyers the upper hand and plenty of choices.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/median-homebuying-age-2025\/\"><b>The Typical First-Time Homebuyer Is 35 Years Old<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median age of first-time buyers dipped slightly from 2024 to 2025, from 36 to 35.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For repeat buyers, the median age is 47, down from a peak of 52.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin determined the median age of homebuyers using U.S. Census Bureau data; this report includes a methodological dive into why our data differs from NAR\u2019s.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-fall-affordability-improves\/\"><b>Homebuying Affordability Improves As Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Level in Over 3 Years<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lower rates haven\u2019t yet brought homebuyers off the sidelines, but hope is in the air as we approach spring.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-q3-2025\/\"><b>More Homeowners Have a Rate Above 6% Than a Rate Below 3% For the First Time in 5 Years<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">21% of U.S. mortgaged homeowners have a rate of 6% or higher, the highest share in a decade. 20% have a rate under 3%, the lowest share in 5 years.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The shift in mortgage-rate distribution reflects the fact that rates have been above 6% for nearly 4 years.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin economists say this could be an opportune time to refinance: Rates are now below 6% for the first time in three and a half years.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For home sellers, the lock-in effect is fading. But some homeowners still feel locked in:\u00a0 16% of homeowners are staying put rather than moving because they don\u2019t want to give up their low rate, per a Redfin survey.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/west-palm-beach-luxury-homes-january-2026\/\"><b>West Palm Beach\u2019s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming, With Sales Up 30%<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Luxury pending home sales in West Palm Beach posted a larger gain than any other major metro in January, rising almost six times faster than non luxury sales.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Luxury prices jumped 11%\u2014more than double the national gain.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">West Palm Beach, which some call \u201cWall Street South,\u201d has seen its luxury market skyrocket due to an influx of finance firms and wealthy out-of-towners.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Week In A Nutshell: We\u2019re in for an unpredictable week with potentially significant moves in rates between the ongoing Iran conflict and important job market data on Friday. &nbsp; Upcoming Attractions &nbsp; The two key economic data points this week are the jobs report and retail sales, both on Friday. But fallout from the 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