{"id":84317,"date":"2026-03-11T07:27:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84317"},"modified":"2026-03-11T07:27:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:27:52","slug":"inflation-february-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/inflation-february-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Cooled in February, but Markets Are Looking Past It as Iran War Clouds Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Takeaway: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">February CPI report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> showed inflation cooling, as expected. But the report will largely be ignored by markets because the data predates the war in Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>February\u2019s inflation data paint a fairly mild picture, but forward-looking investors and policymakers won\u2019t be paying much attention to it.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Headline inflation, which includes all categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually in February while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. These came in almost exactly as expected.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shelter inflation, the largest category in the CPI basket, continues to cool as expected, with rent of primary residence coming in at 0.1% monthly and owners\u2019 equivalent rent at 0.2%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>The focus is on what\u2019s ahead. Recent oil price spikes will hit the March data, and the distortions caused by the government shutdown will fully unwind in April.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">February\u2019s 2.4% annual headline inflation could increase to 3% in March with oil price increases quickly translating into gas prices spikes.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In April, the downward<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-steady-noisy-inflation-data\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bias<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in annual inflation that\u2019s been affecting the CPI data since the October government shutdown will fully reverse. That means even higher annual inflation numbers in April.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s rates already incorporate these effects as investors are well aware of what\u2019s coming.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>The current movement in oil prices is unlikely to impace the Fed\u2019s path to a couple of rate cuts in the back half of 2026.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oil price increases hit the gas pump almost immediately, and impact headline inflation significantly. While the Fed\u2019s mandate is written relative to headline inflation, in practice, they anchor to \u201cunderlying inflation\u201d, which they measure as core inflation. The Fed ignores food and energy prices because those are volatile and less responsive to monetary policy. Historically, oil price spikes have a muted effect on core inflation. Some estimates suggest less than one-tenth the size of the effect on headline inflation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Large sustained increases in energy prices will hit economic growth and unemployment as consumers spend less elsewhere. That implies the Fed may even need to cut rates more\u2013but that would only come in the long run because those effects take time to manifest in economic data.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Takeaway: The February CPI report showed inflation cooling, as expected. But the report will largely be ignored by markets because the data predates the war in Iran. February\u2019s inflation data paint a fairly mild picture, but forward-looking investors and policymakers won\u2019t be paying much attention to it. Headline inflation, which includes all categories, increased 0.3% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":84318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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