{"id":84408,"date":"2026-03-13T10:46:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T17:46:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84408"},"modified":"2026-03-13T11:10:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T18:10:57","slug":"mortgage-rates-jump-march-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-jump-march-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Jump to Six-Month High as Inflation Fears, Iran War Rattle Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s rate increase is due almost entirely to inflation jitters.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The daily average mortgage rate jumped to a six-month high of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.41%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on March 13, after they had dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022 in February.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Today\u2019s increase is almost entirely due to sentiment about inflation.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All interest rates are up because of inflation fears.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 10-year treasury yield, which mortgage rates stem from, is up from 3.95% to 4.29%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expectations for Fed rate cuts have moved from expecting two cuts in the second half of 2026, starting in the summer, to expecting no cuts until the end of 2026 or beginning of 2027.\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, this is not likely to change the Fed\u2019s path much. The Fed cares about core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, because they don\u2019t think they can affect those prices. Core inflation generally changes very little when oil prices spike. But there is some chance the Fed will need to react, if this episode goes on for an especially long time. That fear is driving long term treasury yields up.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When rates are volatile and go up, mortgage rates increase faster than the underlying 10-year treasury yields.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Between Feb. 27 and now, the difference between 10-year treasury yields and mortgage rates\u2013known as the spread\u2013has increased by only 8 basis points. But if bond volatility continues to increase, that spread will increase dramatically.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>General bond volatility has increased<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, as evidenced by the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5EMOVE\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MOVE index<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. That has increased from 73.38 on Feb 27 to 95.30 today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>These moves are still mild compared to what we saw during Liberation Day last year. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At that time, the MOVE index spiked to 139.88, 10-year treasury yields were at 4.6%, and mortgage rates exceeded 7%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Should the Iran war end soon, it\u2019s likely these rate moves will reverse quickly and mortgage rates will settle back closer to 6%. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our rate forecast for 2026 remains in the low 6\u2019s, call it between 6% and 6.2%. The expectation is that this conflict will not drag on long enough to affect that longer term outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Here\u2019s Daryl Fairweather, Redfin\u2019s chief economist, on today\u2019s jump in mortgage rates:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Embedded post\" src=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/embed\/feed\/update\/urn:li:share:7438270231732531200\" width=\"504\" height=\"773\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s rate increase is due almost entirely to inflation jitters.\u00a0\u00a0 The daily average mortgage rate jumped to a six-month high of 6.41% on March 13, after they had dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022 in February.\u00a0 Today\u2019s increase is almost entirely due to sentiment about inflation.\u00a0 All interest rates are up because [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":84409,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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