{"id":84455,"date":"2026-03-18T12:45:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T19:45:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84455"},"modified":"2026-03-18T12:46:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T19:46:55","slug":"fed-meeting-march-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/fed-meeting-march-18\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Could Nudge Slightly Higher As Fed Holds Rates Steady, Flags Inflation Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/03\/18\/business\/federal-reserve-interest-rates\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">left interest rates unchanged<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> at its March 18 meeting, as expected, amid the backdrop of the Iran war, which is contributing to a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-jump-march-13\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shaky economic outlook<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Takeaway: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The meeting will nudge mortgage rates ever so slightly higher. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed more concern over high inflation than slow economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Mortgage rates will drift slightly higher as the Fed holds rates steady and continues to<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdf\"> <b>project<\/b><\/a><b> one rate cut for 2026. It\u2019s noteworthy that they communicated greater concern about inflation than economic growth or unemployment.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The committee voted to keep rates steady, with only one dissent from Governor Stephen Miran, who preferred a 25 bps cut. This outcome was largely expected, though there was the possibility of more dissents.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The new set of projections continues to show one rate cut in 2026 at the median, but there was an overall shift of the dots toward fewer rate cuts, with fewer committee members projecting two or more cuts. In addition, the forecasted \u201clong term\u201d rate edged up from 3.0% to 3.125%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The economic forecast in the projections interestingly showed expectations of higher inflation, including core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) in 2026, but was unchanged for the unemployment rate and showed higher, not lower, economic growth this year. This was despite broad expectations that the Iran war should be a stagflationary development, meaning higher inflation and lower economic growth.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Powell also emphasized the dramatic increase in uncertainty, saying that if there was ever a meeting to not issue projections, it was this one.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>On the transition to the new Fed Chair: Powell committed to staying on the Board of Governors until the<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/13\/nx-s1-5747122\/doj-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-jeanine-pirro\"> <b>criminal investigation<\/b><\/a><b> has ended.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Staying on the Board of Governors after his term as Chair ends is the one card Powell has to play against political interference with the Fed\u2019s independence. Today\u2019s announcement could help to hasten an end to the criminal investigation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed left interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, as expected, amid the backdrop of the Iran war, which is contributing to a shaky economic outlook.\u00a0 Takeaway: The meeting will nudge mortgage rates ever so slightly higher. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed more concern over high inflation than slow economic growth. Mortgage [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":84456,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-84455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Rates Could Nudge Slightly Higher As Fed Holds Rates Steady, Flags Inflation Risk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed more concern over high inflation than slow economic growth.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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