{"id":84500,"date":"2026-03-20T13:16:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T20:16:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84500"},"modified":"2026-03-20T13:18:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T20:18:59","slug":"mortgage-rates-increase-march-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-increase-march-20\/","title":{"rendered":"Escalating Iran War, Rising Oil Prices, Fed Uncertainty Push Mortgage Rates to 6-Month High"},"content":{"rendered":"

The <\/span>daily average mortgage rate<\/span><\/a> rose to a six-month high of 6.53% on March 20.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates are jumping because the Iran war is escalating, increasing the likelihood that oil prices will stay higher longer, and because of the Fed\u2019s reaction to it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

News broke on March 20 that the U.S. is sending <\/span>thousands more troops<\/span><\/a> to the Persian Gulf, pointing to a prolonged conflict and propping up oil prices. A brief spike in oil prices would not affect Fed policy or interest rates significantly; the Fed ignores that kind of inflation because their policy tools <\/span>don\u2019t impact oil prices<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But a sustained period of higher oil prices means that other prices in the economy could increase, causing people to <\/span>expect <\/span><\/i>higher inflation. That self-fulfilling prophecy leads to actual inflation. That\u2019s the Fed\u2019s worst nightmare, and they want to avoid that risk through policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that risk at the Fed meeting <\/span>on Wednesday<\/span><\/a>, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that sentiment today as he <\/span>explained<\/span><\/a> why he supported leaving interest rates unchanged this week.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates are increasing because they\u2019re priced off\u00a0 <\/span>10-year Treasury yields<\/span><\/a>, and those yields increase when expectations of future Fed policy changes. A few weeks ago, investors expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2026. Today, they are not only expecting zero rate cuts in 2026, but they are pricing in a chance that the Fed will <\/span>hike<\/span><\/i> rates this year. That is sending 10-year yields up close to 4.4%, a level we haven\u2019t seen since last July when the economy was absorbing the effects of Liberation Day.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The daily average mortgage rate rose to a six-month high of 6.53% on March 20.\u00a0 Mortgage rates are jumping because the Iran war is escalating, increasing the likelihood that oil prices will stay higher longer, and because of the Fed\u2019s reaction to it.\u00a0 News broke on March 20 that the U.S. is sending thousands more […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":84502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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