{"id":84791,"date":"2026-04-13T10:48:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T17:48:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84791"},"modified":"2026-04-13T10:48:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T17:48:35","slug":"weekly-economic-update-april-13-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-april-13-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, but Iran Ceasefire Talks Keep Risk of Sudden Swings on the Table"},"content":{"rendered":"

This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b>Mortgage rates have been steadier for the last few weeks. But the risk of outsized mortgage moves remains as markets await the outcome of Iran war ceasefire negotiations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n

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This week is light on market-moving economic data, as we\u2019ve now gotten the key <\/span>labor market<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>inflation<\/span><\/a> indicators for the month. The next Fed meeting is still two weeks away. We will get the producer price index (PPI) on Tuesday, which will help round out the March inflation picture alongside last week\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Markets will continue to focus on any progress toward <\/span>reopening the Strait of Hormuz<\/span><\/a>. Currently only about a dozen ships per day are passing through, down from about 100 last year. Bond market volatility has declined sharply since late March, with current volatility more similar to late February\/beginning of March. But significant news on ceasefire talks could still move rates sharply.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n

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We\u2019re starting to see some of the expected effects of the Iran war in economic data. Overall inflation in the March<\/span> CPI data<\/span><\/a> spiked, but outside of energy prices and the most energy sensitive sectors (airfares), there was limited bleed through from the conflict so far. Consumer sentiment, measured by a University of Michigan survey, fell more than expected post-conflict to a historical low, while inflation expectations jumped sharply as consumers reacted to gas prices. The Fed is particularly sensitive to changes in inflation expectations, which they see as a self-fulfilling prophecy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Importantly, consumer sentiment is seemingly reacting more to higher gas prices than the higher tax refunds consumers are also currently receiving. Finally, Chase reported that their credit card spending data for March indicates that consumers are not yet cutting back on spending. This may reflect higher tax refunds or consumers may simply be cutting back on savings for now. Research on prior episodes of gas price changes suggest that there should be a sizable response eventually, however, which should cause economic growth and the labor market to slow.<\/span><\/p>\n

Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h3>\n

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We recently passed the one-year anniversary of Liberation Day (April 2, 2025), when President Trump introduced historically high tariffs. Both the Iran War and last year\u2019s tariffs are what economists call stagflationary events\u2013that is, they slow economic growth and spur inflation. In that vein, it\u2019s helpful to reflect on what has transpired in the past year:<\/span><\/p>\n