{"id":84924,"date":"2026-04-20T18:32:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T01:32:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84924"},"modified":"2026-04-20T18:36:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T01:36:30","slug":"weekly-economic-update-april-20-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-april-20-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: All Eyes on Fed Succession as Mortgage-Rate Swings Ease"},"content":{"rendered":"

This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b>Mortgage-rate volatility has moderated as the United States and Iran near a peace agreement, but succession drama at the Federal Reserve may amp up uncertainty once again as Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has his confirmation hearing.<\/p>\n

Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Retail sales data for March will be released on Tuesday. While it provides a key window into the financial health of consumers and is expected to strengthen marginally, the series is noisy and unlikely to move markets much. As usual for the past seven weeks, markets will be most sensitive to the outcome of the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and any change in the odds that the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. And this week, there is other drama that will be playing out as Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has his confirmation hearing before the Senate on Tuesday. He is caught in the middle of a most unusual standoff<\/a><\/span><\/u> between the Fed and the White House that threatens to delay his confirmation past May 15th when Jay Powell\u2019s term as chair ends. More on this below.<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Last week, mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower with the highlight being Friday\u2019s announcement from Iran\u2019s foreign minister that, following a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz was \u201ccompletely open\u201d. That turned out to not be completely true as the U.S. continued its blockade over the weekend. In economic data, the producer price index (PPI) came in slightly lower than expected, but overall inflation data for the month points to inflation remaining firm. The Fed\u2019s preferred measure of inflation, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is now estimated to show annual inflation of about 3.2% in March, the highest since early 2024. And finally, housing continues to bounce along the bottom as March existing home sales fell 3.6% to an annual rate of 3.98 million.<\/p>\n

Diving a Little Deeper
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Republican Senator Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee,\u00a0 has pledged to block Kevin Warsh\u2019s confirmation for Fed chair until the Department of Justice drops its investigation of current Fed Chair Powell. President Trump has remained resolute so far in saying the investigation should continue. Betting markets now show only a 36% probability that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed before May 15, when Powell\u2019s term ends. What happens if he is not and how will that affect housing?<\/p>\n