{"id":84978,"date":"2026-04-27T08:20:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T15:20:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=84978"},"modified":"2026-04-27T08:20:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T15:20:52","slug":"weekly-economic-update-april-27-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-april-27-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economists\u2019 Weekly Take: Rates Likely to Hold Steady\u2013Unless Fed Meeting or Iran War Rattle Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b>Mortgage rates are likely to remain fairly steady this week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n

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The key event on the docket this week is Wednesday\u2019s Fed meeting, which is likely to be Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s last before his term ends May 15. It looks very likely that Kevin Warsh will be in place before the June 17 meeting. The Fed is all but certain to hold rates steady and signal no cuts in the near future. One question will be how they talk about the possibility of cuts later in the year. But much of the focus will be on whether Powell says he will leave the Board when his chairmanship ends. More on that below.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The most important data points this week will be the first read of Q1 GDP on Thursday and March PCE inflation. GDP growth is expected to increase to just over 2% from 0.5% in Q4 while core inflation is expected to accelerate in March to a 3.2% annual rate from 3.0% previously. And, of course, a breakthrough in the negotiations between the US and Iran has the potential to move markets, despite the story fading from the headlines.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Geopolitical events continued to dominate last week. The Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed as peace negotiations dragged on. Kevin Warsh had his confirmation hearing before the Senate, but the real breakthrough came on Friday when Jeanine Pirro closed her office\u2019s criminal investigation of the Fed, which had been holding up Warsh\u2019s confirmation. It now seems likely Warsh will be ready to assume the chairmanship on May 15 when Powell\u2019s term ends.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, March retail sales data was strong, even after stripping out gas spending. It appears larger tax refunds have been a tailwind for consumers, but Chase\u2019s credit card data suggests it\u2019s a temporary phenomenon that won\u2019t last into April.<\/span><\/p>\n

Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Most of the time, the Fed succession process focuses on policy differences between the outgoing and incoming chair (of which there are plenty, though it\u2019s unlikely to affect rates in the foreseeable future). This time, there\u2019s been an unusual amount of palace intrigue. With Jeanine Pirro\u2019s investigation closed, the remaining question is whether Powell stays on the Board of Governors, which he may address on Wednesday.<\/span><\/p>\n