{"id":85855,"date":"2026-05-26T09:13:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T16:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=85855"},"modified":"2026-05-26T09:26:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T16:26:15","slug":"weekly-economic-update-may-26-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/weekly-economic-update-may-26-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Remain Tied to Iran War, Oil Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b>Three months in, the Iran war is still driving rates more than economic data. There are a few important economics reports this week, but markets will remain focused on how close we are to a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n

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This is a short holiday week, but Thursday is busy. We\u2019ll get April PCE inflation, personal income and spending, durable goods, the second estimate of Q1 GDP, jobless claims and new home sales. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.3% month over month and 3.3% year over year, while headline PCE is expected to rise 3.8% from a year earlier. PCE is the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure, but it usually does not move markets as much as CPI because most of the underlying components are already known.<\/span><\/p>\n

There will also be a full slate of Fed speakers, including Waller, Logan, Williams, Paulson, Schmid, Daly and others. The key question is whether more officials join the push to remove the Fed\u2019s easing bias\u2013meaning they start to signal that a hike is possible as the next move.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Last week\u2019s economic data was mostly stable, but markets continued to react to a Fed that seems increasingly likely to hike. The April FOMC minutes showed that a majority of participants thought some policy firming could become appropriate if inflation stayed persistently above 2%. Waller also said he supported removing the implicit easing bias from the Fed\u2019s statement. Markets are now pricing in more risk that the next move is eventually a hike rather than a cut.<\/span><\/p>\n

Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Forecasters have become increasingly divided on where inflation goes from here.<\/span><\/p>\n