{"id":86058,"date":"2026-06-08T14:16:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T21:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=86058"},"modified":"2026-06-08T14:16:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T21:16:26","slug":"mortage-rates-still-risk-of-rising-strait-hormuz-still-closed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortage-rates-still-risk-of-rising-strait-hormuz-still-closed\/","title":{"rendered":"This Week\u2019s Inflation and Sentiment Data May Clarify the Fed\u2019s Path"},"content":{"rendered":"

This Week In A Nutshell: <\/b>With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and fresh off a hot jobs report last week, rates are at risk of climbing further this week if Wednesday\u2019s inflation data comes in above expectations.<\/p>\n

Upcoming Attractions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The biggest news this week, aside from any developments in peace negotiations with Iran, is Wednesday\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report followed immediately by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Combined, the two will give us a very good idea how Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE, the Fed\u2019s gauge of inflation, will come in later this month. They will be the first look at inflation for May, two months after the start of the Iran war. A higher than expected reading on core inflation would lead Fed officials to discuss whether to hike at next week\u2019s meeting. An as-expected reading would allow them to keep the hike as a more distant possibility while keeping rates steady to wait for new data.<\/p>\n

Friday also brings consumer sentiment data. Consumer sentiment has hit an all time low with consumers worried about the labor market and prices at the same time. If consumers cut back on spending as a result, growth and the labor market could weaken into the end of the year, allowing the Fed to hold back hikes.<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n

The main development last week was Friday\u2019s hot jobs report<\/a><\/span><\/u>, which sent expectations of a Fed rate hike and mortgage rates higher. The JOLTs report also surprised to the upside though the guts were less promising than the headline. All together the labor market data made a more definitive case that the jobs market has improved meaningfully since the fall. And therefore makes those three cuts from the Fed last Q4 look less necessary. All to say, the Fed could potentially discuss a hike now as taking back those \u201cinsurance cuts\u201d from the Fed.<\/p>\n

Diving a Little Deeper<\/b><\/h3>\n
All eyes are on whether the Fed actually hikes rates this year. A few months ago, markets had priced in two more cuts this year, but pricing has swung to expecting two hikes. That\u2019s what has been behind the upswing in mortgage rates. What will actually happen? The uncertainty is higher than ever.<\/div>\n