{"id":86159,"date":"2026-06-17T13:03:56","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T20:03:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=86159"},"modified":"2026-06-17T13:03:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T20:03:56","slug":"kevin-warsh-first-fed-meeting-june-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/kevin-warsh-first-fed-meeting-june-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Likely to Stay High For Now as Markets Digest Warsh&#8217;s First Fed Meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Takeaway: <\/b>He\u2019s no one\u2019s sock puppet! Now that Kevin Warsh has the job, he\u2019s ready to make changes. It will take markets a while to fully digest the full breadth of today\u2019s meeting, but the hawkish shift in the committee\u2019s projections will keep mortgage rates high for now. In some ways though, that\u2019s almost besides the point given the scope of the changes coming in this new era.<\/p>\n<p><b>In a normal Fed meeting, the headline today would have been that the Fed shifted from projecting a cut to projecting a hike by year end. That change and the statement\u2019s terse concluding sentence\u2013\u201cThe Committee will deliver price stability.\u201c\u2013make clear that neither the Chairman nor the committee are interested in giving the White House their desired rate cuts given the current inflation backdrop.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The committee voted unanimously to hold rates steady as markets had expected.<\/li>\n<li>The drama is in the so-called \u201cdot plot\u201d where the committee forecasts future policy. The last dot plot from March expected a rate cut, but today\u2019s dot plot predicts a rate hike over the next six months, a pretty dramatic swing that skips over simply holding rates steady.<\/li>\n<li>In fact, six of the 18 committee members submitting a projection expect more than one rate hike.<\/li>\n<li>Interestingly, Warsh noted multiple times that the housing market is one of the few places where the current level of rates is holding activity back, but the Fed is uninterested in coming to the rescue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>The more consequential outcome today is that Kevin Warsh firmly marked the beginning of a new era. He has every intention of re-examining how the Fed operates.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>During the confirmation process, Warsh made it clear that he saw a need for the Fed to pare back communications and its balance sheet. Today he showed that he intends to deliver on those fronts. Time will tell where it all lands, but change is coming.<\/li>\n<li>On communications, today\u2019s <u><span draggable=\"true\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20260617a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">statement<\/a><\/span><\/u> is slimmer than Fed statements we\u2019ve gotten used to over the last couple of decades. It was simple and it stripped out the clues previous statements had on the Fed\u2019s next steps.<\/li>\n<li>The dot plot was released today, but only 18 votes were present. In a highly unusual move, Warsh held back his own dot and, if the other developments are any indication, the dot plot itself may not be long for this world.<\/li>\n<li>Warsh also announced the creation of no less than five task forces. They are being asked to go back to first principles and question the Fed\u2019s practices in these areas: communications, balance sheet, use and reliance on existing data sources, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation, and inflation framework. We won\u2019t know until next year what the task forces recommend, but given the tone of today\u2019s press conference, big changes could be coming to how the Fed has fundamentally operated since the financial crisis.<\/li>\n<li>The scope of changes Warsh is seeking to implement is immense and will be controversial. He referred a few times to enjoying a good old \u201cfamily fight.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Takeaway: He\u2019s no one\u2019s sock puppet! Now that Kevin Warsh has the job, he\u2019s ready to make changes. It will take markets a while to fully digest the full breadth of today\u2019s meeting, but the hawkish shift in the committee\u2019s projections will keep mortgage rates high for now. In some ways though, that\u2019s almost besides [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":86167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86159"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86168,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86159\/revisions\/86168"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86159"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=86159"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=86159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}