{"id":86794,"date":"2026-08-10T11:27:26","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T18:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=86794"},"modified":"2026-08-10T11:27:26","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T18:27:26","slug":"mortgage-rate-could-move-from-inflation-data-august-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rate-could-move-from-inflation-data-august-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates Could Move This Week as Inflation Data Tests the Fed\u2019s Path"},"content":{"rendered":"

In A Nutshell: <\/b>Rates remain precarious this week with highly anticipated inflation data coming Wednesday, which could determine if the Fed hikes at their next meeting.<\/p>\n

Upcoming Attractions<\/b><\/h3>\n

Wednesday\u2019s CPI print will be the most important data release of the week by a long shot. Odds for a hike at the September 16th\u2019s meeting are currently hovering around 50\/50. Even though there will still be one more jobs report and one more CPI report before the meeting, Wednesday\u2019s data could decisively shift the odds. The Fed focuses on core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories. A reading around 0.2% monthly core inflation (as forecasters expect) would likely give the Fed cover to keep holding, especially after Friday\u2019s weak jobs report<\/a>. But a print around 0.3% on monthly core inflation could put us on the path to a hike.<\/p>\n

On Friday, we will also get retail sales and consumer sentiment data, which will tell us how consumers are feeling and, more importantly, how they are acting. Sentiment has been hovering at historical lows these past few months, but consumers have yet to let up on spending.<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/b><\/h3>\n

Last Friday\u2019s jobs report came in significantly weaker than expected. With economic data, the goal is to always try to discern the trend from the noise. Before Friday, a reasonable interpretation was that a weak labor market last fall\/winter strengthened into the spring after the Fed cut 75 bps and that the weak June report was an anomaly. After Friday\u2019s data for July, the strength we saw in the spring looks increasingly like a noisy anomaly. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that the data are \u201cvery consistent with how I\u2019ve been seeing the labor market\u2014which is it\u2019s not loose, it\u2019s not tight, it\u2019s sort of in a weak balance.\u201d The tepid, lukewarm, just barely treading water description feels spot on. What does that mean for housing? For starters, perhaps a little relief in the sense that there\u2019s a small likelihood of higher rates. But inflation is a more important determinant of where rates go right now. And a weaker job market generally means less demand for housing conditional on a given level of mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s Most Recent Housing Market Reports<\/b><\/h3>\n