San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

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San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

National inventory continues to decline by 3.2%, clamping down on March home sales

National housing market tracker

National home sales rose by an annual rate of 1 percent in March, the smallest increase in sixteen months, while new listings grew 6.8 percent compared to last year.

The median sale price rose 4.7 percent year over year, about the same rate as in February and below the 12-month average of 6.1 percent growth. The average sale-to-list price ratio climbed to 92.9 percent, the highest level we’ve seen since we began tracking it in 2009.

 

Market Summary March 2016 Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Median sale price $265,200 5.7% 4.7%
Homes sold 164,600 29.5% 1.0%
New listings 267,600 24.1% 6.8%
All Homes for sale 521,600 5.6% -3.2%
Median days on market 38 -9 -6
Months of supply 3.2 -0.7 -0.1
Sold above list 21.6% 3.6% 2.9%
Average Sale-to-list 92.9% 2.0% 1.2%

 

 

redfin-national-median-sale-price-growth-march-2016

 

 

Overall inventory fell year over year by 3.2 percent, the 14th consecutive month of declines despite a 6.8 percent increase in new listings.

Is San Francisco Previewing What’s to Come?

The story emerging elsewhere in 2016 is one of historically low inventory in select regions driving record-setting competition and beginning to constrain home sales. In hot markets like Seattle, Portland and Minneapolis, which saw double-digit sales growth in 2015, sales are now falling for the first time since mid-2014 as a result of inventory declines greater than 30 percent in some places.

“Last year sales grew 7 percent nationally, but there simply aren’t enough homes for sale to maintain such a torrid pace again this year,” says Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “No matter how high homebuyer demand is, it takes two to tango, and many sellers are sitting this year out.”

In San Francisco, home prices fell for the first time in four years. The median sale price, which averaged 15 percent growth in 2015, fell by 1.8 percent year over year to $1,042,500. At the same time, sales plummeted 22.1% percent. With nearly every listing in a bidding war, virtually nothing to buy and most homes selling for over $1,000,000, San Francisco could be affirming that at some point, the pressure will burst.

“For years San Francisco has been one of, if not the most, competitive markets in the country,” said Richardson. “Now we are seeing this white hot market start to cool and contract. The share of Redfin offers facing competition dropped to 77 percent in March from 94 percent last year. This suggests that the price drop is not about inventory, it’s about buyers fed up with high Bay Area prices and crazy competition.”

Other markets like Tacoma, WA, Grand Rapids, MI and Louisville, KY, are following the same trend of decreasing inventory. However because the trend started later, and with prices remaining relatively affordable, sales are continuing to grow.

redfin-home-sales-vs-inventory-march-2016
redfin-all-active-inventory-march-2016

Something to note about last month’s relatively low growth in home sales is that the Easter holiday, which typically puts a damper on home-buying activity, occurred on the last weekend of March, and may have pushed some sales into April.

With demand remaining strong, more homes selling above asking price and nearly a third of new listings selling in less than two weeks, increased growth in April and May listings – which are typically the most active months of the year for housing – will push sales higher again. The Redfin home tour index reached its highest level for the third month straight, and offers surged to their highest level in almost three years. But in markets that have already seen double-digit drops in inventory, new listing growth will need to be at least as high as it was in February and March to meet demand.

redfin-home-tour-and-offer-activity-march-2016
redfin-average-sale-to-list-percentage-march-2016

Other March Highlights

Prices

  • Portland, OR had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 16.1% since last year to $325,000.  Jacksonville, FL prices rose 13.5% to $185,000 and in Tampa the median sale price rose 12.1% to $176,000.
  • While San Francisco had the highest median sale price in the nation at $1,042,500, that number actually fell 1.8% year over year, and declined by 0.7% month over month, an unusual change from February to March.  In neighboring San Jose, prices rose 3% to $860,000 and Oakland rose 5.4% to $590,000

Sales

  • Boston led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, rising 23.4%, followed by Providence, RI, rising 22.1%.
  • Dallas saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 22.4% since March of 2015.  Home sales in San Jose and San Francisco both declined by 22.2%.
  • Most metro regions in the West saw year-over-year declines in home sales, including Denver (-3.2%), Fresno (-2.1%), Oakland (-4.1%), Orange County (-3.5%), Portland (-1.0%), San Diego (-2.5%), San Francisco (-22.2%), San jose (-22.2%), and Seattle (-3.8%).  Sales were relatively flat in Los Angeles (-0.2%), Sacramento (-0.9%) and Ventura County (0.8%), and rose by 4.2% in Las Vegas, 6.8% in Phoenix and 4.9% in Riverside-San Bernardino.

Competition

  • Denver and Seattle were the fastest markets, with half of all homes pending sale in just 7 and 8 days, respectively.  Median days on market in Denver was the same as in March of 2015, but 6 days faster in Seattle.  Portland was the next fastest market with 11 median days on market.
  • 77.5% of homes in San Francisco sold above list price, followed by 72.4% in San Jose and 71.8% in Oakland.  In Indianapolis, only 8.7% of homes sold over asking, and 8.8% in West Palm Beach, FL.
  • Seattle, (up 2.5 percentage points to 101.6%), Tacoma, WA (up 2.1 percentage points to 98.2%), and Portland (up 2 percentage points to 100.1%) had the largest annual increases in the average sale-to-asking percentage, while San Francisco retained the highest figure with the average home selling for 106.9% of the asking price.

Inventory

  • Grand Rapids continued to see the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 52.5% since last March.  Tacoma (-40.7%), Seattle (-33.9%), and Portland (-33.2%) also continued seeing far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Orange County, CA and Houston both had the highest increases in the number of homes for sale, each up 26.2% year over year.

You can download data from the March Market Tracker in an Excel Spreadsheet.

For additional local analysis, see: Chicago | Los Angeles | MiamiSan Francisco | Washington, D.C.

Median Sale Price

Redfin Metro Median Sale Price Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH $112,450 -2.2% 0.4%
Albany, NY $180,000 3.0% 0.1%
Allentown, PA $165,100 2.5% 3.2%
Atlanta, GA $200,000 5.3% 6.4%
Austin, TX $277,500 2.8% 6.7%
Baltimore, MD $235,000 4.4% 3.0%
Boston, MA $324,000 6.3% 3.3%
Buffalo, NY $120,000 1.7% 6.0%
Charleston, SC $238,000 0.0% 3.5%
Charlotte, NC $205,000 9.0% 4.3%
Chicago, IL $205,000 10.8% 5.1%
Cincinnati, OH $150,000 12.6% 11.1%
Cleveland, OH $115,800 10.3% 5.3%
Columbus, OH $165,500 4.1% 8.9%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX $225,000 3.2% 8.7%
Denver, CO $345,000 5.2% 9.5%
Detroit-Warren, MI $132,750 10.6% 11.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $203,000 -1.5% 9.7%
Fresno, CA $229,000 9.8% 6.5%
Grand Rapids, MI $144,800 3.5% 9.7%
Greenville, SC $170,000 0.0% 4.2%
Hampton Roads, VA $202,800 2.3% 0.4%
Honolulu, HI $515,000 -2.8% 3.0%
Houston, TX $213,000 5.4% 1.5%
Indianapolis, IN $151,125 9.9% 5.8%
Jacksonville, FL $185,000 10.1% 13.5%
Las Vegas, NV $200,000 -1.3% 5.3%
Little Rock, AR $141,538 -2.4% -4.0%
Long Island, NY $370,000 0.0% 2.8%
Los Angeles, CA $509,000 2.8% 8.3%
Louisville, KY $156,250 8.5% 0.8%
Memphis, TN $145,000 5.1% 7.4%
Miami, FL $237,514 -1.9% 5.3%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN $219,900 7.3% 5.2%
Nashville, TN $238,164 4.0% 8.8%
New Orleans, LA $187,500 3.6% 5.6%
North Port, FL $228,000 1.8% 9.1%
Oakland, CA $590,000 6.5% 5.4%
Omaha, NE $162,500 1.6% 4.8%
Orange County, CA $608,500 3.6% 5.8%
Orlando, FL $192,300 3.9% 8.4%
Philadelphia, PA $219,900 4.7% 0.2%
Phoenix, AZ $219,900 1.3% 7.3%
Portland, OR $325,000 6.7% 16.1%
Providence, RI $205,000 5.1% 11.7%
Richmond, VA $208,000 7.2% 1.5%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA $312,000 4.0% 5.8%
Rochester, NY $123,000 11.9% 4.3%
Sacramento, CA $330,000 3.9% 9.3%
San Antonio, TX $199,815 4.9% 7.4%
San Diego, CA $487,000 4.3% 5.9%
San Francisco, CA $1,042,500 -0.7% -1.8%
San Jose, CA $860,000 6.2% 3.0%
Seattle, WA $420,000 5.6% 10.4%
St. Louis, MO $158,950 6.0% 3.5%
Tacoma, WA $264,900 6.0% 9.0%
Tampa, FL $176,000 3.5% 12.1%
Tucson, AZ $180,000 5.1% 2.6%
Tulsa, OK $145,000 0.0% 0.6%
Ventura County, CA $520,000 -0.6% 7.0%
Washington, DC $355,000 4.4% 1.4%
West Palm Beach, FL $231,000 2.7% 10.0%
Wilmington, DE $197,800 4.4% 0.1%
National $265,200 5.7% 4.7%

Homes Sold

Redfin Metro Homes Sold Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH 724 38.2% 3.0%
Albany, NY 634 21.7% 17.8%
Allentown, PA 536 14.3% -2.7%
Atlanta, GA 8,499 29.5% 4.3%
Austin, TX 2,498 33.7% 1.7%
Baltimore, MD 2,802 21.4% 5.1%
Boston, MA 5,046 29.7% 23.4%
Buffalo, NY 675 -4.7% -4.4%
Charleston, SC 1,288 27.7% -1.5%
Charlotte, NC 2,590 33.9% 2.7%
Chicago, IL 8,595 35.5% 1.4%
Cincinnati, OH 1,823 31.3% 3.5%
Cleveland, OH 2,050 27.9% 10.8%
Columbus, OH 2,015 42.4% 5.9%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 5,524 -5.2% -22.4%
Denver, CO 3,918 30.8% -3.2%
Detroit-Warren, MI 5,313 19.7% 5.3%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,923 23.7% -3.7%
Fresno, CA 691 16.1% -2.1%
Grand Rapids, MI 924 34.9% 4.8%
Greenville, SC 778 41.5% -1.0%
Hampton Roads, VA 1,741 29.7% 7.1%
Honolulu, HI 792 43.5% 17.3%
Houston, TX 6,353 30.5% 7.4%
Indianapolis, IN 2,210 31.5% -2.9%
Jacksonville, FL 2,002 25.8% -2.1%
Las Vegas, NV 3,456 30.5% 4.2%
Little Rock, AR 760 26.2% 5.3%
Long Island, NY 1,855 5.0% 17.5%
Los Angeles, CA 5,852 37.1% -0.2%
Louisville, KY 1,160 22.5% 12.4%
Memphis, TN 991 30.6% 6.8%
Miami, FL 2,622 20.1% -16.2%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 3,775 44.1% -3.1%
Nashville, TN 2,761 36.4% 20.8%
New Orleans, LA 1,181 27.4% 3.5%
North Port, FL 1,836 38.5% -7.0%
Oakland, CA 2,095 44.7% -4.1%
Omaha, NE 873 32.3% -5.3%
Orange County, CA 2,495 38.9% -3.5%
Orlando, FL 3,490 25.4% -5.0%
Philadelphia, PA 3,349 20.6% 6.0%
Phoenix, AZ 8,055 45.4% 6.8%
Portland, OR 3,127 36.6% -1.0%
Providence, RI 818 20.6% 22.1%
Richmond, VA 1,228 31.6% -4.0%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 4,709 37.1% 4.9%
Rochester, NY 713 5.6% -2.1%
Sacramento, CA 2,524 31.3% -0.9%
San Antonio, TX 2,325 26.2% 8.1%
San Diego, CA 2,958 34.0% -2.5%
San Francisco, CA 981 44.7% -22.2%
San Jose, CA 1,161 53.4% -22.2%
Seattle, WA 3,575 37.0% -3.8%
St. Louis, MO 2,492 41.0% 8.3%
Tacoma, WA 1,225 47.4% 15.5%
Tampa, FL 5,055 25.6% 0.7%
Tucson, AZ 1,374 37.0% 17.6%
Tulsa, OK 1,095 34.2% 2.7%
Ventura County, CA 728 48.9% 0.8%
Washington, DC 5,694 28.6% 0.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 2,725 27.9% -15.0%
Wilmington, DE 569 6.0% -0.9%
National 164,600 29.5% 1.0%

New Listings

Redfin Metro New Listings Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH 1,232 26.2% 0.0%
Albany, NY 1,493 34.5% 11.7%
Allentown, PA 1,532 40.6% 14.4%
Atlanta, GA 11,063 28.8% 9.8%
Austin, TX 3,845 27.1% 11.8%
Baltimore, MD 5,904 52.2% 19.8%
Boston, MA 11,305 65.4% 24.9%
Buffalo, NY 1,489 33.5% 8.3%
Charleston, SC 2,266 24.2% 9.6%
Chicago, IL 19,976 20.5% 2.7%
Cincinnati, OH 3,411 25.8% -0.2%
Cleveland, OH 3,663 26.0% 2.3%
Columbus, OH 2,990 32.8% -0.7%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 10,584 17.5% 14.3%
Denver, CO 5,360 31.5% -1.9%
Detroit-Warren, MI 8,523 19.1% -5.6%
Fresno, CA 1,031 22.4% -8.9%
Grand Rapids, MI 1,362 31.3% -2.4%
Greenville, SC 1,196 32.7% 2.9%
Hampton Roads, VA 3,395 18.0% 11.6%
Honolulu, HI 1,132 4.7% -2.6%
Houston, TX 11,466 13.2% 22.0%
Indianapolis, IN 4,117 38.2% 7.4%
Jacksonville, FL 3,122 13.8% 8.9%
Las Vegas, NV 5,127 13.5% 3.7%
Little Rock, AR 1,425 8.2% 6.9%
Long Island, NY 4,409 34.5% 4.3%
Los Angeles, CA 10,040 18.3% 9.8%
Louisville, KY 1,988 40.1% 6.0%
Memphis, TN 1,627 17.9% 8.3%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 7,740 35.3% -0.6%
Nashville, TN 4,575 22.6% 11.0%
New Orleans, LA 2,037 16.0% 1.8%
North Port, FL 2,557 -8.5% -0.1%
Oakland, CA 3,120 23.7% -4.2%
Omaha, NE 1,672 38.6% -1.1%
Orange County, CA 4,347 21.4% 14.4%
Orlando, FL 4,953 8.5% -3.6%
Philadelphia, PA 7,809 38.0% 6.8%
Phoenix, AZ 10,611 5.4% 7.3%
Portland, OR 4,185 16.6% -6.1%
Providence, RI 1,786 55.7% 23.3%
Richmond, VA 2,520 37.7% 8.7%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 8,008 13.8% 13.0%
Rochester, NY 1,907 39.0% 9.3%
San Antonio, TX 3,820 26.4% 24.8%
San Diego, CA 4,596 8.5% -4.2%
San Francisco, CA 1,570 16.6% -1.1%
San Jose, CA 2,023 38.7% 9.9%
Seattle, WA 5,150 35.3% 0.9%
St. Louis, MO 4,605 27.5% -1.0%
Tacoma, WA 1,575 25.1% -5.6%
Tampa, FL 6,886 5.2% 1.1%
Tucson, AZ 1,957 5.8% -0.9%
Tulsa, OK 1,885 8.8% -1.7%
Ventura County, CA 1,155 23.4% 2.8%
Washington, DC 12,762 63.3% 16.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 4,433 -0.8% 4.0%
Wilmington, DE 1,283 40.2% 4.9%
National 267,600 24.1% 6.8%

All Homes for Sale

Redfin Metro All Homes for Sale Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH 3,182 3.6% -6.4%
Albany, NY 4,197 1.4% -8.1%
Allentown, PA 3,883 -14.2% -22.2%
Atlanta, GA 20,102 0.9% -12.4%
Austin, TX 5,580 7.8% 7.3%
Baltimore, MD 11,272 3.7% -9.6%
Boston, MA 17,436 7.8% 0.5%
Buffalo, NY 3,645 -28.9% -47.5%
Charleston, SC 6,567 5.8% 1.8%
Chicago, IL 45,902 20.7% 14.1%
Cincinnati, OH 9,998 8.6% -3.6%
Cleveland, OH 10,270 6.2% -2.6%
Columbus, OH 6,597 34.2% 17.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 14,904 9.3% 9.6%
Denver, CO 5,289 8.4% 12.7%
Detroit-Warren, MI 14,459 -10.5% -17.2%
Fresno, CA 1,700 -6.9% -18.7%
Grand Rapids, MI 2,020 -4.2% -52.5%
Greenville, SC 3,182 21.5% 6.5%
Hampton Roads, VA 8,786 5.3% -1.3%
Honolulu, HI 3,349 -5.1% -10.7%
Houston, TX 23,283 1.9% 26.2%
Indianapolis, IN 8,405 3.2% -27.5%
Jacksonville, FL 7,598 -0.4% -11.9%
Las Vegas, NV 15,012 2.1% -1.2%
Little Rock, AR 4,480 10.9% -0.7%
Long Island, NY 13,602 4.2% -7.8%
Los Angeles, CA 15,796 10.0% 7.1%
Louisville, KY 3,332 1.3% -21.4%
Memphis, TN 4,226 3.0% -2.9%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 11,865 6.8% -18.0%
Nashville, TN 8,427 4.6% -3.1%
North Port, FL 8,146 4.5% 13.3%
Oakland, CA 2,554 9.8% -13.3%
Omaha, NE 2,164 2.8% -17.6%
Orange County, CA 7,547 23.6% 26.2%
Orlando, FL 11,874 -0.9% -14.5%
Philadelphia, PA 19,447 6.3% -10.8%
Phoenix, AZ 24,116 9.1% 11.5%
Portland, OR 4,224 -1.3% -33.2%
Providence, RI 3,941 4.5% 5.7%
Richmond, VA 4,110 2.9% -14.2%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 17,771 4.7% 13.1%
San Antonio, TX 7,525 8.4% 18.4%
San Diego, CA 6,144 -1.4% -14.4%
San Francisco, CA 2,060 7.1% 3.8%
San Jose, CA 2,491 27.1% 1.8%
Seattle, WA 3,904 2.0% -33.9%
St. Louis, MO 9,783 6.5% -10.2%
Tacoma, WA 1,837 -7.0% -40.7%
Tampa, FL 16,372 2.7% -9.3%
Tucson, AZ 5,868 15.4% 5.6%
Tulsa, OK 4,206 -27.1% -30.2%
Ventura County, CA 1,645 6.3% -5.7%
Washington, DC 17,465 12.9% -4.9%
West Palm Beach, FL 14,441 8.5% 17.6%
Wilmington, DE 3,653 5.3% -5.4%
National 521,600 5.6% -3.2%

Methodology: Redfin’s National Market Tracker follows housing trends in the country’s largest metropolitan areas (those with population 500,000 or greater) served by Redfin agents. Analysis by Redfin is based on all residential home sales transacted on the multiple-listing service and supplemented by county recorder data where available. Data may be subject to revision. Metropolitan divisions are based the latest definitions released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. To view a breakdown of these regions, click here.

For more information, contact Redfin journalist services

Phone: 206-588-6863
Email: press@redfin.com

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