Strong January Home Price Growth and Declining Inventory Signal Another Competitive Spring for Homebuyers

Real Estate News & Analysis

Strong January Home Price Growth and Declining Inventory Signal Another Competitive Spring for Homebuyers

Home Sales Fell in January Due to Inventory Shortage and Tax Reform Uncertainty

housing market tracker

Home prices increased 7.8 percent year over year to a national median sale price of $280,500 in January. Sales were down 7.9 percent annually as the ongoing inventory shortage showed no signs of ending. The number of homes for sale in January dropped by 14.4 percent, the largest year-over-year decline in 28 consecutive months of falling supply.

The typical home that sold in January found a buyer after 53 days on the market, six days faster than January 2017. The percentage of homes that sold above list (19.2%) and the average sale to list price ratio (97.8%) were both up slightly compared to January of last year, setting the stage for a spring market that could be even more competitive than last year.

“Sales volume is typically lowest in January, so while sales fell further than normal, it is not a major cause for concern,” said Redfin senior economist Taylor Marr. “Redfin agents in high-tax states reported that some buyers were hesitant in November and December given the uncertainty around tax reform, which passed in late December. This uncertainty contributed to the drop in January home sales. Potential move-up buyers are now reassessing whether it makes sense to list their homes in the face of higher mortgage rates and less favorable tax treatment for their next home. Some buyers have determined lower deductions may be offset by other tax cuts, but those tax cuts won’t hit buyers’ paychecks for a couple months.”

Redfin agents report eagerness among buyers to purchase a home before mortgage rates inch up further and prices rise any higher– if they can find a home they want to buy.

“Many buyers are concerned about interest rates, but the biggest driver of this market is inventory, not rates,” said Redfin Washington, D.C., agent Joe Krupsaw. “None of my clients have said they’ll change their plans to buy if rates increase. I think when rates hit 4.5 percent we’ll see some buyers reassess their budgets and what they can afford, but they won’t stop looking for a home.”

Just 6 percent of respondents to a recent survey commissioned by Redfin said they would cancel their home buying plans if rates rose above 5 percent. Twenty-seven percent said it would cause them to slow their search, 25 percent said it would have no impact, 21 percent said it would increase their urgency to buy, and another 21 percent said they would look for a less expensive home.

Market Summary January 2018 Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Median sale price $280,500 -2.0% 7.8%
Homes sold 157,400 -29.4% -7.9%
New listings 232,600 56.9% -0.2%
All Homes for sale 570,800 -1.7% -14.4%
Median days on market 53 4 -6
Months of supply 3.6 1 -0.3
Sold above list 19.2% -0.7% 0.5%
Average Sale-to-list 97.8% -0.2% 0.1%


San Jose Homes Sold a Month Faster than Last Year

For yet another month, San Jose was the fastest and most competitive market in the country. The typical home found a buyer in 12 days, 30 days fewer than last January. San Jose homes sold for an average of 9 percent over the asking price, which is the highest sale-to-list price ratio Redfin has recorded in that metro area.

“Buyers in San Jose have shown a complete disregard for recent comparable offers and are coming in swinging in order to win a home,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Kalena Masching. “It has gotten to the point where buyers are submitting preemptive offers that are so good it’s not worth the seller to wait for an official offer deadline or the first open house.”

Other January Highlights

Competition

  • San Jose, CA was the fastest market, with half of the homes that sold last month under contract in just 12 days, down from 42 days from a year earlier. Seattle, WA and Oakland, CA were the next fastest markets with 16 and 17 median days on market, followed by Denver, CO (19) and San Francisco, CA (23).
  • The most competitive market in January was San Jose, CA where 75.5% of homes sold above list price, followed by 62.2% in Oakland, CA, 60% in San Francisco, CA, 41.7% in Seattle, WA, and 37.6% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • Memphis, TN had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 24.6% since last year to $162,000. San Francisco, CA had the second highest growth at 23.8%, followed by San Jose, CA (21.6%), Baton Rouge, LA (17.8%), and Seattle, WA (15.4%).
  • Four metros saw price declines in January: Milwaukee, WI (-2.7%), Camden, NJ (-2.6%), Birmingham, AL (-2.3%), and Baltimore, MD (-1.8%).

Sales

  • Only 11 out of 73 metros saw positive sales growth in January from last year. Salt Lake City, UT led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 11.9%, followed by Greenville, SC, up 11.8%. Kansas City, MO rounded out the top three with sales up 7.5% from a year ago.
  • Michigan metro areas saw the largest declines in sales since last year, led by Detroit, MI where sales declined 29.7%. Home sales in Grand Rapids, MI and Warren, MI declined by 29.1% and 28.4%, respectively.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 43.6% since last January. Rochester, NY (-37.5%), Buffalo, NY (-37.1%), and Atlanta, GA (-35.4%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Only two metro areas had increases in the number of homes for sale in January: Baton Rouge, LA (16.7%) and Honolulu, HI (7.6%).

Methodology

The Redfin Real-Time Housing Market Tracker is a monthly analysis of home prices, competition, sales volumes and inventory levels across the markets that Redfin serves nationwide. The analysis is based on data from the Multiple Listing Services of which Redfin is a member. The monthly data may change after publishing as additional real estate transactions are recorded.

Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.

Median Sale Price

Redfin Metro Median Sale Price Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY $190,000 4.4% 6.3%
Allentown, PA $186,500 1.9% 14.7%
Atlanta, GA $215,000 -2.3% 10.3%
Austin, TX $290,000 -4.9% 3.8%
Bakersfield, CA $218,000 -0.9% 6.3%
Baltimore, MD $235,000 -6.0% -1.8%
Baton Rouge, LA $196,700 -2.1% 17.8%
Birmingham, AL $176,000 -7.3% -2.3%
Boston, MA $450,000 -0.7% 6.9%
Buffalo, NY $139,900 -0.8% 12.0%
Camden, NJ $155,800 -5.5% -2.6%
Charlotte, NC $216,500 -7.9% 4.8%
Chicago, IL $220,000 0.0% 4.8%
Cincinnati, OH $156,400 0.9% 4.2%
Cleveland, OH $127,000 -5.9% 5.8%
Columbus, OH $180,000 -7.2% 9.9%
Dallas, TX $267,900 -6.0% 5.1%
Denver, CO $380,000 0.0% 9.5%
Detroit, MI $117,000 -0.4% 11.7%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $240,000 -4.0% 11.1%
Fort Worth, TX $215,000 -5.1% 7.5%
Fresno, CA $248,200 -2.5% 7.9%
Grand Rapids, MI $174,500 -0.3% 9.1%
Greenville, SC $190,000 0.5% 5.6%
Hampton Roads, VA $218,500 -0.7% 9.3%
Honolulu, HI $565,000 -3.4% 0.9%
Houston, TX $215,500 -6.3% 2.6%
Indianapolis, IN $157,700 -3.0% 12.7%
Jacksonville, FL $209,000 -2.8% 13.6%
Kansas City, MO $193,000 1.6% 7.7%
Knoxville, TN $175,000 -4.7% 6.1%
Las Vegas, NV $250,000 -0.8% 14.9%
Long Island, NY $420,000 0.7% 7.7%
Los Angeles, CA $575,000 -1.7% 6.5%
Louisville, KY $172,000 -4.3% 2.4%
Memphis, TN $162,000 -4.1% 24.6%
Miami, FL $280,000 0.0% 6.9%
Milwaukee, WI $180,000 -2.7% -2.7%
Minneapolis, MN $244,800 -0.7% 7.3%
Montgomery County, PA $285,000 -3.4% 7.5%
Nashville, TN $272,000 -2.2% 11.0%
New Orleans, LA $195,000 -6.7% 6.6%
Oakland, CA $650,000 -2.7% 11.7%
Oklahoma City, OK $156,500 -1.6% 0.3%
Omaha, NE $187,500 7.1% 10.3%
Orange County, CA $670,000 1.1% 8.2%
Orlando, FL $230,000 -3.4% 10.3%
Oxnard, CA $600,000 1.8% 13.4%
Philadelphia, PA $185,000 -1.6% 12.5%
Phoenix, AZ $249,000 0.9% 8.7%
Pittsburgh, PA $151,000 3.4% 6.5%
Portland, OR $388,400 5.0% 14.2%
Providence, RI $245,000 -2.0% 8.9%
Raleigh, NC $267,500 -0.9% 8.1%
Richmond, VA $222,500 -5.3% 3.5%
Riverside, CA $350,000 0.3% 11.1%
Rochester, NY $127,500 -2.1% 6.7%
Sacramento, CA $365,000 -1.4% 10.6%
Salt Lake City, UT $290,000 0.0% 7.4%
San Antonio, TX $205,000 -4.7% 5.3%
San Diego, CA $539,000 -1.1% 5.7%
San Francisco, CA $1,300,000 -1.5% 23.8%
San Jose, CA $997,500 -9.4% 21.6%
Seattle, WA $510,800 -3.6% 15.4%
St. Louis, MO $155,900 -6.6% 1.3%
Tacoma, WA $309,700 -2.3% 14.7%
Tampa, FL $202,300 -5.9% 8.4%
Tucson, AZ $200,000 -3.3% 8.1%
Tulsa, OK $155,000 -6.3% 4.6%
Warren, MI $178,000 -6.3% 4.7%
Washington, DC $365,500 -4.6% 0.8%
West Palm Beach, FL $259,900 -2.0% 13.0%
Worcester, MA $250,000 -1.8% 9.6%
National $280,500 -2.0% 7.8%

Homes Sold

Redfin Metro Homes Sold Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY 592 -30.8% -12.4%
Allentown, PA 458 -32.3% -5.2%
Atlanta, GA 6,078 -31.4% -1.6%
Austin, TX 1,655 -42.0% 0.2%
Bakersfield, CA 534 -22.0% -3.6%
Baltimore, MD 2,484 -32.1% -17.5%
Baton Rouge, LA 560 -31.0% -22.4%
Birmingham, AL 761 -32.5% -16.6%
Boston, MA 2,896 -26.0% -8.5%
Buffalo, NY 724 -27.2% -9.7%
Camden, NJ 1,222 -22.0% -16.0%
Charlotte, NC 2,201 -25.9% -0.9%
Chicago, IL 5,566 -35.8% -25.6%
Cincinnati, OH 1,266 -27.0% -13.6%
Cleveland, OH 1,510 -31.3% -7.1%
Columbus, OH 1,598 -33.8% -13.8%
Dallas, TX 3,232 -36.5% -4.0%
Denver, CO 2,843 -36.4% -14.4%
Detroit, MI 1,246 -24.6% -29.7%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,029 -33.4% -9.2%
Fort Worth, TX 1,783 -31.4% -3.3%
Fresno, CA 544 -25.2% -9.8%
Grand Rapids, MI 834 -31.4% -29.1%
Greenville, SC 732 -31.3% 11.8%
Hampton Roads, VA 1,333 -28.8% 6.1%
Honolulu, HI 623 -23.7% -0.6%
Houston, TX 4,439 -36.5% 3.6%
Indianapolis, IN 1,726 -30.7% 2.4%
Jacksonville, FL 1,393 -40.0% -12.4%
Kansas City, MO 1,916 -25.3% 7.5%
Knoxville, TN 765 -25.4% 0.4%
Las Vegas, NV 2,743 -13.4% 1.6%
Long Island, NY 2,052 -14.7% -14.8%
Los Angeles, CA 4,381 -26.4% -8.3%
Louisville, KY 886 -33.1% -3.5%
Memphis, TN 758 -29.4% -10.4%
Miami, FL 1,848 -30.2% -9.2%
Milwaukee, WI 941 -29.8% -14.1%
Minneapolis, MN 2,752 -33.1% -21.8%
Montgomery County, PA 1,447 -32.5% -8.8%
Nashville, TN 2,016 -34.2% -11.0%
New Orleans, LA 832 -23.2% -10.6%
Oakland, CA 1,322 -35.4% -13.1%
Oklahoma City, OK 1,080 -29.8% -10.7%
Omaha, NE 717 -27.7% -11.6%
Orange County, CA 1,801 -20.1% -7.4%
Orlando, FL 2,615 -36.8% -9.9%
Oxnard, CA 507 -15.5% -7.0%
Philadelphia, PA 1,655 -14.8% -3.7%
Phoenix, AZ 6,000 -15.7% 0.1%
Pittsburgh, PA 1,312 -33.1% -8.1%
Portland, OR 1,990 -32.4% -14.7%
Providence, RI 1,156 -33.1% -8.5%
Raleigh, NC 1,362 -34.8% -1.0%
Richmond, VA 967 -38.3% -3.1%
Riverside, CA 3,793 -16.5% -1.9%
Rochester, NY 697 -29.3% -6.1%
Sacramento, CA 1,851 -25.8% -5.2%
Salt Lake City, UT 1,127 -23.3% 11.9%
San Antonio, TX 1,496 -31.0% -7.7%
San Diego, CA 2,078 -23.1% -4.6%
San Francisco, CA 467 -44.6% -14.8%
San Jose, CA 682 -34.6% -13.2%
Seattle, WA 2,409 -37.1% -16.5%
St. Louis, MO 2,213 -28.6% -7.4%
Tacoma, WA 970 -25.0% -11.1%
Tampa, FL 3,637 -35.8% -6.9%
Tucson, AZ 946 -19.6% -11.8%
Tulsa, OK 681 -29.8% -3.3%
Warren, MI 2,193 -29.8% -28.4%
Washington, DC 4,849 -31.3% -12.8%
West Palm Beach, FL 2,045 -24.9% -4.5%
Worcester, MA 652 -27.7% 6.4%
National 157,400 -29.4% -7.9%

New Listings

Redfin Metro New Listings Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY 669 41.1% -6.7%
Albuquerque, NM 1,104 56.4% 4.6%
Allentown, PA 722 46.7% -2.2%
Atlanta, GA 8,175 45.7% 7.3%
Austin, TX 2,509 46.0% -3.4%
Bakersfield, CA 896 72.3% 6.3%
Baltimore, MD 3,021 39.0% -5.4%
Baton Rouge, LA 923 43.8% -6.5%
Birmingham, AL 1,202 69.8% -8.8%
Boston, MA 2,827 72.3% -14.0%
Buffalo, NY 715 35.9% -8.6%
Camden, NJ 1,831 41.6% -6.4%
Charlotte, NC 2,882 56.0% -3.2%
Chicago, IL 8,782 85.0% -7.3%
Cincinnati, OH 1,689 56.4% -13.5%
Cleveland, OH 2,153 54.9% -5.1%
Columbus, OH 1,762 27.8% -10.4%
Dallas, TX 5,424 59.2% 2.1%
Denver, CO 3,709 80.0% 5.4%
Detroit, MI 1,675 22.0% -3.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 4,431 51.6% -1.9%
Fort Worth, TX 2,683 42.6% 1.2%
Fresno, CA 827 66.7% 12.8%
Grand Rapids, MI 933 44.9% 1.5%
Greenville, SC 1,024 62.3% -1.4%
Hampton Roads, VA 1,833 34.5% -9.3%
Honolulu, HI 1,005 65.3% 6.6%
Houston, TX 7,648 46.0% -4.4%
Indianapolis, IN 1,962 32.1% -3.4%
Jacksonville, FL 2,277 43.1% -5.4%
Kansas City, MO 2,332 28.5% 8.7%
Knoxville, TN 1,026 33.2% 4.9%
Las Vegas, NV 3,614 50.5% -3.0%
Long Island, NY 2,612 70.9% -4.8%
Los Angeles, CA 6,843 92.8% 3.2%
Louisville, KY 1,106 53.8% -7.6%
Memphis, TN 957 26.8% -15.3%
Miami, FL 4,645 46.8% -1.5%
Milwaukee, WI 1,237 87.7% -0.8%
Minneapolis, MN 3,234 69.6% -9.1%
Montgomery County, PA 1,712 77.4% -16.7%
Nashville, TN 2,937 31.1% -6.7%
New Orleans, LA 1,262 35.6% -7.4%
Oakland, CA 1,979 103.4% 8.6%
Oklahoma City, OK 1,675 36.2% -2.4%
Omaha, NE 743 12.1% -16.7%
Orange County, CA 2,662 99.8% -0.9%
Orlando, FL 4,169 45.9% -0.9%
Oxnard, CA 685 77.5% 3.9%
Philadelphia, PA 1,989 44.2% -12.3%
Phoenix, AZ 9,256 69.0% 0.2%
Pittsburgh, PA 1,639 50.1% -6.2%
Portland, OR 2,360 47.1% 12.8%
Providence, RI 1,314 47.8% -11.1%
Raleigh, NC 1,972 52.4% -1.0%
Richmond, VA 1,269 56.7% -5.7%
Riverside, CA 5,717 65.6% 7.4%
Rochester, NY 687 36.9% -16.8%
Sacramento, CA 2,464 61.7% 12.1%
Salt Lake City, UT 1,424 53.6% 14.0%
San Antonio, TX 2,545 49.2% 2.1%
San Diego, CA 3,203 85.0% 3.9%
San Francisco, CA 868 175.6% 5.1%
San Jose, CA 1,007 97.1% 3.8%
Seattle, WA 3,090 90.0% 1.4%
St. Louis, MO 2,920 43.7% -3.9%
Tacoma, WA 1,129 39.7% 8.3%
Tampa, FL 6,254 53.1% 2.3%
Tucson, AZ 1,661 66.3% 5.9%
Tulsa, OK 1,076 41.0% -12.7%
Warren, MI 2,602 45.7% -6.3%
Washington, DC 6,024 53.8% -7.3%
West Palm Beach, FL 4,552 53.3% -0.5%
Worcester, MA 594 28.9% -16.8%
National 232,600 56.9% -0.2%

All Homes for Sale

Redfin Metro All Homes for Sale Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY 2,210 -9.8% -29.1%
Albuquerque, NM 2,777 -6.8% -32.5%
Allentown, PA 2,235 -0.3% -14.9%
Atlanta, GA 19,825 -6.4% -35.4%
Austin, TX 5,535 -8.5% -0.3%
Bakersfield, CA 1,767 -0.7% -13.3%
Baltimore, MD 7,656 -11.0% -19.2%
Baton Rouge, LA 3,188 -2.2% 16.7%
Birmingham, AL 4,430 1.0% -13.6%
Boston, MA 4,472 -9.4% -25.5%
Buffalo, NY 1,535 -12.9% -37.1%
Camden, NJ 6,755 0.5% -5.4%
Charlotte, NC 8,197 -5.4% -18.2%
Chicago, IL 27,947 -0.3% -15.6%
Cincinnati, OH 5,882 1.9% -12.3%
Cleveland, OH 6,880 -2.9% -15.2%
Columbus, OH 4,380 -4.4% -20.3%
Dallas, TX 10,041 -5.8% -4.0%
Denver, CO 3,938 -3.8% -14.4%
Detroit, MI 3,774 -8.2% -8.2%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 12,719 4.4% -11.3%
Fort Worth, TX 4,635 -9.3% -15.8%
Fresno, CA 1,249 -5.7% -17.2%
Grand Rapids, MI 1,744 -12.5% -11.9%
Greenville, SC 3,318 0.3% -9.4%
Hampton Roads, VA 6,426 -4.0% -12.9%
Honolulu, HI 2,834 6.1% 7.6%
Houston, TX 21,137 -4.3% -5.4%
Indianapolis, IN 5,053 -8.1% -25.0%
Jacksonville, FL 5,707 1.7% -13.9%
Knoxville, TN 3,943 -0.8% -12.0%
Las Vegas, NV 8,188 3.0% -25.0%
Long Island, NY 8,274 -1.6% -15.8%
Los Angeles, CA 12,024 3.9% -20.0%
Louisville, KY 2,407 -9.0% -13.9%
Memphis, TN 2,525 -8.4% -24.0%
Miami, FL 17,581 1.1% -5.5%
Milwaukee, WI 3,999 -0.7% -19.0%
Minneapolis, MN 6,628 -4.2% -23.3%
Montgomery County, PA 5,568 -4.0% -11.6%
Nashville, TN 8,122 -0.1% -0.6%
New Orleans, LA 5,229 -4.5% -1.0%
Oakland, CA 1,559 24.0% -23.7%
Oklahoma City, OK 5,073 -6.9% -13.3%
Omaha, NE 1,440 -15.1% -13.1%
Orange County, CA 4,974 4.6% -21.7%
Orlando, FL 8,449 -3.3% -18.2%
Oxnard, CA 1,131 -1.9% -18.6%
Philadelphia, PA 6,081 -2.8% -12.6%
Phoenix, AZ 18,782 3.4% -15.3%
Pittsburgh, PA 7,935 -3.0% -15.4%
Portland, OR 3,791 -13.2% -11.7%
Providence, RI 3,947 -6.6% -22.0%
Raleigh, NC 5,078 -10.2% -8.8%
Richmond, VA 2,497 -12.7% -21.1%
Riverside, CA 12,964 0.7% -17.8%
Rochester, NY 1,511 -10.6% -37.5%
Sacramento, CA 3,286 -4.0% -11.5%
Salt Lake City, UT 2,287 -28.9% -16.0%
San Antonio, TX 6,913 -2.5% -4.2%
San Diego, CA 4,290 1.2% -14.4%
San Francisco, CA 826 43.7% -21.3%
San Jose, CA 682 24.5% -43.6%
Seattle, WA 2,187 -8.0% -29.5%
St. Louis, MO 9,225 -5.1% -11.0%
Tacoma, WA 1,371 -16.0% -22.5%
Tampa, FL 11,722 0.3% -16.1%
Tucson, AZ 4,398 5.7% -5.1%
Tulsa, OK 3,431 -4.6% -12.3%
Warren, MI 5,367 -12.1% -21.5%
Washington, DC 11,279 -11.6% -18.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 14,538 6.9% -4.9%
Worcester, MA 1,313 -14.2% -31.5%
National 570,800 -1.7% -14.4%
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