Recent upticks in mortgage applications and home tours suggest that home price growth will strengthen this summer.
U.S. home-sale prices edged up again in May, growing 3.6 percent from a year ago to a median of $315,700 across the metros Redfin tracks. While this was the biggest annual home price increase in seven months, it fell far short of the 7.1 percent growth rate of a year earlier.
Only six of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks saw a year-over-year decline in their median sale price, the biggest of which were a 6.0 percent drop in San Jose, a 2.5 percent dip in New York, and a 2.2 percent decline in Honolulu. All three of the other metros that saw price drops were in California: Orange County (-1.4%), Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Oakland (-0.7%).
”As mortgage rates have fallen this month, Redfin has seen upticks in the number of people wanting to talk with our agents about buying homes and the number going on home tours,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Recent surges in mortgage applications also reflect the impact low rates are having on homebuyer demand nationwide. We haven’t yet seen a commensurate increase in U.S. home sales, and I don’t expect sales to increase substantially in the long run. That’s because there still aren’t enough homes for sale for all of the people who want to buy homes. In May, inventory posted its smallest increase in eight months, and fewer new listings came on the market than last year. Low rates and rising prices will likely lure sellers onto the market this summer, but the lack of new construction will continue to hold back sales growth.”
Market Summary
May 2019
Month-Over-Month
Year-Over-Year
Median sale price
$315,700
3.0%
3.6%
Homes sold
314,300
14.1%
0.2%
New listings
418,900
5.1%
-0.7%
All Homes for sale
890,300
5.1%
2.5%
Median days on market
36
-4
-1
Months of supply
2.8
-0.3
0
Sold above list
24.4%
2.1%
-3.6%
Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate
$304,600
1.6%
4.9%
Average Sale-to-list
98.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Home sales were essentially flat in May, up 0.2 percent year over year. Forty-eight of the 85 metros tracked by Redfin saw an increase in sales from a year earlier.
The number of homes for sale as of the end of May was up 2.5 percent from the same time last year. This was the smallest year-over-year increase in home supply in eight months. The number of homes newly listed for sale last month fell 0.7 percent from a year earlier.
Nationwide, measures of competition are mixed, with some pointing toward a hotter market than a year ago and others indicating that the market has cooled.
On the “market is hotter” side, we have the median number of days on market, which dropped for homes sold in May, which fell to 36 days from 37 days a year earlier. This is the lowest days on market measured in any month of May since at least 2010 (as far back as we have recorded this measure nationally).
On the “market is cooler” side, there’s the share of homes for sale that has a price drop, which rose to 25.9 percent, up from 23.4 percent last year, and the highest rate of homes with price drops since last September’s record high. Also, the share of homes sold above list price is falling, to 24.4 percent in May from 28.0 percent last year. Still, last month’s rate of homes selling above list price was the highest since last August.
Other May Highlights
Competition
Grand Rapids, MI was the fastest market, with half of all homes pending sale in just 8 days, down from 9 days a year earlier. Omaha, NE and Tacoma, WA were the next fastest markets with 8 and 8 median days on market, followed by Washington, DC (9) and Seattle (9).
The most competitive market in May was San Francisco where 69.6% of homes sold above list price, followed by 58.9% in Oakland, CA, 54.3% in San Jose, CA, 49.4% in Tacoma, WA, and 45.1% in Minneapolis.
Prices
Knoxville, TN had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 15.2% since last year to $218,875. Milwaukee had the second highest growth at 14.7% year-over-year price growth, followed by Camden, NJ (11.4%), Dayton, OH (11.1%), and Detroit (10.8%).
6 metros saw price declines in May. San Jose, CA declined the most since last year falling 6 percent to $1,175,000.
Sales
Dayton, OH led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 9.2%, followed by Minneapolis, up 8.9%. Long Island, NY rounded out the top three with sales up 8.8% from a year ago.
Bakersfield, CA saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 13.9%. Home sales in Fresno, CA and Tacoma, WA declined by 12.6% and 10.2%, respectively.
Inventory
San Jose, CA had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 60.2% year over year, followed by Seattle (45.8%) and Oxnard, CA (37.6%).
Rochester, NY had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 25.5% since last May. Camden, NJ (-19.7%) and Montgomery County, PA (-19.1%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
Redfin Estimate
The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 95.6% in San Francisco, the lowest of any market. Only 11.0% of homes in San Francisco were listed for more than their Redfin Estimate.
Conversely, the median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 102.2% in Miami and 102.0% in West Palm Beach, FL, which means sellers are listing their homes for more than the estimated value in those metro areas. In Miami, 80.9% of homes were listed above their Redfin Estimate, the highest percentage of any metro.
Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.
Tim Ellis has been analyzing the real estate market since 2005, and worked at Redfin as a housing market analyst from 2010 through 2013 and again starting in 2018. In his free time, he runs the independently-operated Seattle-area real estate website Seattle Bubble, and produces the "Dispatches from the Multiverse" improvised comedy sci-fi podcast.