The Share of Homebuyers Looking to Relocate Is Near Pandemic Peak

Nearly one-third of Redfin.com users looked to move away from their hometown in the fourth quarter, close to the record high set in the first quarter. Popular destinations include Miami and Phoenix. 

Nationwide, 31.2% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro in the fourth quarter of 2021, near the record high of 31.5% set in the first quarter. The share is up significantly from pre-pandemic levels, with 26.3% of Redfin.com users looking to relocate in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Homebuyer interest in relocating to a new part of the country rose with the onset of the pandemic and has remained elevated for nearly two years. That’s partly due to low mortgage rates and partly the surge in remote work that’s allowing Americans to choose where they live based on things like affordability and weather rather than proximity to an office.

The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 111 metro areas in the fourth quarter, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must have made up at least 80% of the user’s searches. Redfin’s migration data goes back to 2017.

“I’ve seen a huge amount of people coming from the Bay Area, some to live permanently and some looking for investment properties,” said Alison Williams, a Redfin agent in Sacramento, one of the most popular migration destinations in the U.S. “Buyers are trying to get their hands on a home before interest rates go up even more. Remote workers coming from the Bay Area all have the same dream: To find a bigger home for half as much, and with a much more comfortable lifestyle and more money in their pockets. For a lot of them, the dream is becoming a reality–but at the same time, many locals are getting priced out of the market.”

Homebuyers are flocking to relatively affordable areas including Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas

Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento and Tampa were the most popular migration destinations of all the major U.S. metros in the fourth quarter. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave.

Sunny, relatively affordable metro areas are typically the most popular places for people who are relocating. Sunbelt metros like Phoenix and Las Vegas are perennially near the top of the list, and this is the second quarter in a row that Miami has taken the number-one spot.

Homebuyers tend to move from expensive areas to more affordable places. New York ($640,000 median sale price) was the number-one origin for people moving to Miami ($440,000), while Los Angeles ($835,000) was the top origin for people moving to both Phoenix ($435,000) and Las Vegas ($339,000).

Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
Rank	Metro*	Net Inflow, Q4 2021†	Net Inflow, Q4 2020	Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, Q4 2021	Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, Q4 2020	Top Origin	Top Out-of-State Origin
1	Miami, FL	11,931	4,204	32.6%	27.4%	New York, NY	New York, NY
2	Phoenix, AZ	11,047	9,431	35.9%	36.4%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
3	Las Vegas, NV	8,031	9,495	42.7%	52.1%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
4	Sacramento, CA	7,756	8,990	41.2%	49.0%	San Francisco, CA	Reno, NV
5	Tampa, FL	7,678	4,873	46.4%	56.7%	Orlando, FL	New York, NY
6	Dallas, TX	6,363	7,891	25.6%	32.5%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
7	Cape Coral, FL	5,526	4,199	66.8%	75.7%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
8	North Port, FL	5,362	2,946	65.2%	77.1%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
9	San Antonio, TX	5,334	2,906	43.1%	44.9%	Houston, TX	Los Angeles, CA
10	Atlanta, GA	4,921	7,794	20.0%	26.8%	New York, NY	New York, NY
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021 †Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the two million users sampled for this analysis only

People are leaving big, expensive cities

San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Seattle are the top metros homebuyers looked to leave in the fourth quarter. That’s according to net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in.

Major metropolitan job centers–especially expensive ones–tend to top the list of places Redfin.com users are looking to leave, and this quarter is no exception. But as remote work becomes more solidified for many workers, even more people are leaving San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Seattle than a year ago.

Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
Rank	Metro*	Net Outflow, Q4 2021†	Net Outflow, Q4 2020	Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, Q4 2021	Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, Q4 2020	Top Destination	Top Out-of-State Destination
1	San Francisco, CA	48,904	41,982	23.5%	25.1%	Sacramento, CA	Seattle, WA
2	Los Angeles, CA	39,586	24,220	19.4%	18.1%	San Diego, CA	Phoenix, AZ
3	New York, NY	27,769	43,982	27.1%	35.4%	Philadelphia, PA	Philadelphia, PA
4	Washington, DC	18,675	12,463	15.1%	13.3%	Salisbury, MD	Salisbury, MD
5	Seattle, WA	16,632	3,171	17.0%	14.6%	Phoenix, AZ	Phoenix, AZ
6	Boston, MA	9,980	1,376	16.6%	12.9%	Portland, ME	Portland, ME
7	Chicago, IL	7,033	6,642	12.8%	12.5%	Cape Coral, FL	Cape Coral, FL
8	Denver, CO	3,275	6,022	26.1%	28.8%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
9	Minneapolis, MN	2,122	-906	23.4%	19.1%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
10	Portland, OR	1,668	-2,195	17.2%	16.4%	Seattle, WA	Seattle, WA
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021 †Among the two million users sampled for this analysis only